$BTC 🚨 Macro Analysis of BTC after the “Black Swan” 🦢💥 — Is it a real rebound or a liquidity trap?
On Friday, we saw a historic drop: Bitcoin plummeted to 101,000 USDT, dragging the entire market down.
Today, the price is trying to recover, but… is it time to buy or are there more drops ahead? 👀
📊 1️⃣ General context
The movement was not just technical. The black swan was accompanied by macroeconomic factors:
• 💵 Strong dollar (DXY at weekly highs).
• 📉 Decline in global liquidity.
• 🏦 Central banks still without clear intentions to cut rates.
• 😰 Risk sentiment at lows.
➡️ This creates an environment where rebounds tend to be limited and volatility dominates.
🕳️ 2️⃣ Technical structure
In the 4H chart, it is observed:
• Lateral channel between 121,000 and 108,000, still valid.
• The price respected the base of the channel (107K–108K) and is now rebounding strongly to 114K.
• Key resistance at 117,800 USDT, where the price could stall.
• RSI rebounding from oversold, but without confirming a trend change.
• MACD showing weak bullish cross ⚠️.
📈 Key operation zones:
• 🟢 Entry zone (if consolidates): 111,000 – 112,500
• 🎯 Partial Take Profit: 117,800
• 🎯 Total Take Profit (if channel breaks): 121,000 – 122,500
• 🔻 Risk if it loses: 110,000 → we could see 107,000 or even 104,000
💡 3️⃣ Macro conclusion
The current rebound is technical, not structural.
Until BTC breaks the ceiling of the channel (122K) with volume, the macro trend remains bearish.
🧠 In summary:
• The market is in technical recovery.
• The “big cryptos” remain overbought or undecided.
• The most prudent: wait for confirmation before buying heavily.
💪 Take care of your money, don’t fall for FOMO.
The market can appear bullish 🎭, but it is still cleaning liquidity.
