"Dollar Price Projections for the Last Quarter of 2025. Impact on Cryptocurrencies".
MUFG expects the dollar to continue with slight downward pressure in the last quarter of 2025, projecting moderate movements in pairs like EUR/USD.
Cambridge Currencies suggests that the dollar's weakness bias could persist during the fourth quarter.
JPMorgan and other banks are warning about a possible scenario of “stagflation” in the U.S. (weak growth + persistent inflation), which could complicate monetary conditions.
BlackRock maintains a “risk-on” stance for Q4, trusting that a slow economy without recession may allow some room for rate cuts that favor risk assets.
Therefore, a plausible scenario is that the dollar continues to decline moderately, with possible rebounds, with a probable DXY range between ~96 and ~99 during the quarter (depending on external shocks).
If U.S. data disappoints and the Fed becomes more expansive, downward pressure could gain ground.
Crypto Impact.
The link between the dollar and crypto assets is not mechanical or perfectly consistent, but there are several mechanisms by which a weakness in the dollar can affect the crypto ecosystem:
Possible positive effects for crypto as a refuge/hedge against depreciating fiat currencies.
When the dollar weakens, investors may seek alternative assets not tied to the dollar. Bitcoin, in particular, has been seen in some cycles as “digital gold” or a hedge against inflation and monetary expansion.
Although historical correlation is not perfect, in previous cycles, dollar weakness has coincided with rebounds in Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Greater global liquidity/flow towards risk assets.
If global monetary policy eases (or if there are rate cuts in the U.S.), the liquidity environment could favor investments in risk assets, including cryptos.
