Altcoin Season Index at 29 shows Bitcoin dominance; altcoins still await meaningful capital rotation in 2025.
BTC.D dropped from 66.5% to 61.83%, exiting “Alts Max Pain” zone; market watches 60.47% support for further decline.
A BTC.D fall below 55.36% may lead to a full altcoin season; reversal above 66.5% would stall altcoin momentum.
Despite being deep into a post-halving year, market indicators still lean heavily toward Bitcoin dominance. The Altcoin Season Index is at 29, suggesting a Bitcoin favored market. Historically, a value under 25 confirms Bitcoin season, while a value above 75 implies a full-blown altcoin rally.
This continued Bitcoin strength has surprised many, given previous cycles where altcoins surged post-halving. However, recent technical signals suggest a shift could be forming as Bitcoin’s dominance weakens from peak levels.
Altcoin Season Index Stagnates
According to analyst Ted Pillows, the current cycle has not delivered the altcoin momentum many anticipated. The Altcoin Season Index peaked in November 2024 but has trended lower since.
Altcoin Season Index chart, Source: Ted Pillows on X
Despite occasional surges, altcoins have struggled to sustain rallies, largely due to Bitcoin’s continued strength. This sustained downtrend in the index suggests limited capital rotation into altcoins so far in 2025.
As of early August 2025, the index is at 29, slightly above Bitcoin Season levels. Conditions remain firmly in favor of Bitcoin, suggesting that altcoins have yet to attract significant market share. The broader altcoin market is on standby, awaiting a meaningful shift in momentum.
Bitcoin Dominance Drops Below Key Levels
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has begun to show signs of weakness. Analyst Crypto Feras noted 60.47% as a key support level for BTC.D. A sustained drop below this level could accelerate altcoin momentum.
Bitcoin Dominance price chart, Source: Crypto Feras on X
Recently, BTC.D dropped from 66.5% to 61.83%, exiting the historical “Alts Max Pain” zone. That zone, ranging between 66.59% and 70.80%, often results in sharp altcoin underperformance.
When BTC.D is in that range, altcoins typically struggle even when Bitcoin holds steady. Now that BTC.D has exited that level, the market is monitoring for potential altcoin relief. However, BTC.D is high, meaning the shift has not yet been confirmed.
Analyst Eyes 55.36% As Final Confirmation Point
If Bitcoin dominance continues declining, the next major level is at 55.36%. Crypto Feras noted that dropping below this point would mark a stronger capital rotation. Previous altcoin rallies; in 2018, 2021, and 2022, occurred when BTC.D fell below this level. Reaching this range again may indicate a broader altcoin cycle.
However, a bounce above 66.5% would invalidate the potential rotation. This would support Bitcoin dominance and stall any altcoin gains. Thus, the direction BTC.D takes in the coming weeks will determine whether altcoins regain ground or continue underperforming.
Market Position Hangs on Key Levels
The Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin dominance now is near major turning points. BTC.D has pulled back from highs, but confirmation is pending. The index shows altcoins still trail Bitcoin, though not by much.
According to both Ted Pillows and Crypto Feras, movement below key dominance levels could shift the market. Until then, altcoins remain in a holding pattern while Bitcoin controls the broader trend.
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