BTC faces resistance near $116K; failure to reclaim it may lead to a drop toward $111,390 support or CME gap fill near $111K.
A new CME gap at $113.5K–$114K suggests short term downside, while price signals a possible distribution phase.
Despite ETF inflows and weaker dollar, low retail interest and rising volatility may hinder BTC's recovery momentum.
Bitcoin is facing renewed pressure as its price struggles below a key resistance zone. After recently filling the daily CME Futures gap, it remains to be seen whether BTC can reclaim the $116K level and resume its previous upward momentum. The current price action suggests that failure to break above $116,080 could invite deeper downside toward major support at $111,390.
Resistance Builds Around $116K
Bitcoin previously broke out above $114,305 in early July, closing on strong momentum. This move saw prices rally beyond $122,000 before momentum faded. However, since that peak, BTC has posted lower highs and lower closes, forming a short term downtrend.
Price slipped back below $115,675 and $116,080, confirming them as resistance. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $114,340, beneath these resistance levels. Analysts observe that reclaiming $116,000 is now a key for bulls aiming to reverse current weakness.
Key Support Levels
According to Rekt Capital, $114,305 held as support during past bounces. However, pressure has increased following the rejection near $116,000. The next key level now is at $111,390, which previously offered strong support in both June and July.
Bitcoin CME Futures 1-day price chart, Source: Rekt Capital on X
If this zone fails, traders are also eyeing a potential gap fill near $111,000, which could attract further short term selling. As noted by multiple analysts, the current setup resembles a distribution phase where buying interest has weakened and sellers are regaining control.
CME Gaps and Macro Factors
A new CME gap between $113,500 and $114,000 has formed, and according to analyst Ted Pillows, this could lead to a drop below $114,000. Historical price behavior often sees such gaps filled, suggesting BTC may dip before any potential recovery begins.
At the same time, macro signals are changing. As shared by Dao World, the dollar index is weakening again, and the probability of a September rate cut has risen sharply. Meanwhile, institutional buying through ETFs continues to grow, and M2 liquidity shows signs of expanding.
Despite these macro developments, retail interest is low according to Google Trends. This suggests broader activity has not yet returned, which may keep volatility high in the near term.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $116,000, further losses could follow, with $111,390 acting as a major test. The filled CME gap and macro trends point to a volatile period ahead, with resistance and support zones in focus.
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