BTC surged from $46K to $119K in 2025 as ETF inflows grew to 600K BTC, showing strong price correlation with institutional buying.
July 23 saw net ETF outflows of 866 BTC, hinting at short term caution after Q2 gains, led by a 354 BTC outflow from Bitwise.
ETFs now hold 6.5% of BTC supply, with $54.55B in inflows, indicating long term institutional confidence despite brief pullbacks.
Bitcoin ETF activity is once again gaining momentum, and past patterns suggest a strong connection between inflows and BTC price surges. Since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, every steep rise in cumulative inflows has coincided with sharp moves in Bitcoin’s price.
This correlation is key as market participants respond to changing inflow dynamics. Notably, Bitcoin began 2025 trading near $46,000, and by July, it had surged to $119,000 alongside ETF inflows reaching 600,000 BTC.
Steep ETF Inflow Surges Aligned With Bitcoin Price Spikes
In the early months of 2025, inflows steadily climbed. By March, 200,000 BTC had entered ETFs, and Bitcoin peaked at $70,000. However, the momentum stalled soon after. Between May and June, inflows slowed, and Bitcoin retraced to $60,000.
A renewed buying wave began around October, with ETF holdings accelerating. Over the following months, inflows doubled to 400,000 BTC, helping push Bitcoin to $100,000. The surge didn’t stop there. By July 2025, cumulative ETF inflows reached 600,000 BTC, with Bitcoin hitting a new high of $122,000.
These movements reinforce the pattern that when ETF flows rise sharply, Bitcoin tends to follow with notable upward moves. This has highlighted institutional demand as a key factor influencing price.
July Outflows Signal Short Term Investor Caution
While cumulative flows remain positive, recent daily data shows brief pullbacks. On July 23, according to Lookonchain, net ETF flows turned negative by 866 BTC, equal to roughly $102.18 million.
Bitwise recorded the largest outflow of 354 BTC worth $41.73 million. Despite this, it still holds over 40,000 BTC valued at $4.79 billion. These short term outflows may suggest profit taking or hesitancy after Bitcoin’s strong Q2 performance and price consolidation.
However, Grayscale GBTC saw net inflows during the same period. This suggests capital rotation within ETF products rather than complete exits. GBTC's reduced discount to NAV may be attracting investors looking for improved value.
Long Term Confidence Still Backed by Cumulative Flows
Despite short term fluctuations, ETF products still hold 6.5% of Bitcoin’s supply. The $54.55 billion in cumulative net inflows points to continued institutional confidence in the asset. Recent outflows may limit immediate price momentum, especially near resistance zones like $60,000.
However, ETF flow data remains a leading indicator. Any new inflow spikes could reflect renewed institutional buying pressure. Daily ETF movement is key in tracking investor behavior. Consistent monitoring of these changes is important for anticipating broader market trends.
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