Glassnode reports Bitcoin supply is tightening fast, with strong accumulation and long-term holders absorbing more than miners are issuing.
Bitcoin volatility hits extreme lows, with less than 0.4% of days showing tighter 60-day price ranges since December 2022.
ETF AUM reaches $137B as Bitcoin breaks ATH, with BlackRock’s IBIT dominating options interest and attracting the majority of 2025 inflows.
Bitcoin has entered a tightly coiled consolidation phase, with strong accumulation trends and reduced volatility suggesting an approaching market breakout.
Accumulation Builds While Bitcoin Trades Below ATH
According to Glassnode, Last night, BTC made another ATH - this time above $118K. The platform reports that investor behavior is currently driven by a sustained accumulation trend. Since the start of the month, Bitcoin’s price has moved sideways, yet accumulation has remained relatively strong across on-chain metrics.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1943580303953440876
The Accumulation Trend Score, which monitors buying behavior across entities, has indicated consistently high levels. This suggests that market participants consider the current price zone favorable. A prior distribution phase had caused the market to stall after the initial breakout above $100K, but accumulation appears to have resurged near recent highs.
Long-Term Holders Absorb More Than New Supply
Bitcoin’s tightening supply dynamic is being shaped by the actions of long-term holders (LTHs). Recent on-chain data shows that the 30-day increase in LTH-held coins is exceeding the new supply being issued by miners. These holders, typically seen as price-insensitive, are not selling at the current levels and are instead consolidating their positions.
Wallet data further confirms this tightening supply. Entities holding less than 100 BTC — including Shrimps, Crabs, and Fish — are acquiring coins at a combined rate of 19.3k BTC per month. This far outpaces the miner issuance rate of 13.4k BTC per month, adding pressure to an already constrained supply side.
Volatility Measures Compress Across Timeframes
Volatility in the Bitcoin market has reached multi-month lows. Glassnode reports that realized volatility, measured over 1-week to 6-month periods, is at historically compressed levels. For instance, 3-month realized volatility is currently lower than 96% of all trading days since December 2022.
In options markets, At-the-Money Implied Volatility (ATM IV) has also declined. Over 88% of trading days since December 2022 had higher implied volatility across 1-week to 6-month contracts. This suggests that traders are not expecting immediate large price swings, though this often precedes sharp market moves.
Glassnode added that only 6% of trading days have shown a tighter 30-day price range than the present one. For the 60-day window, only 0.4% of days have recorded narrower trading ranges. This multi-scale compression pattern often acts as a precursor to major price breakouts or breakdowns.
Realized Supply Density Reflects Price Sensitivity
The Realized Supply Density metric, which tracks the proportion of supply held within a ±10% price band of the current spot price, shows about 19% of Bitcoin’s supply concentrated in this range. This indicates that a large segment of the market is sensitive to minor price changes.
Such clustering means that even modest price movements can flip many holders from profit to loss, amplifying volatility. With the market positioned tightly in this band, the potential for reactive moves increases. This situation reinforces the coiled structure forming in Bitcoin’s price behavior.
ETF AUM Hits Record as IBIT Dominates Market
While ETF net inflows have cooled to $144M in the past week, total assets under management (AUM) for U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reached a record $137B. The rise is driven primarily by BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which now commands 55% of the total market share.
According to Glassnode, ETF ownership now represents 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, also a new high. IBIT’s influence is further underscored by its options market dominance, where it holds 4.2 million open contracts. This compares to 81K for Fidelity’s FBTC and 15K for Bitwise’s BITB.
IBIT’s growing dominance is supported by a liquidity loop. Its size attracts more market makers, which in turn reduces trading costs and attracts more investors. This cycle has positioned it as the preferred vehicle for institutional Bitcoin exposure.
ETF Cost-Basis Aligns with Market Valuation Metrics
BlackRock’s IBIT deposit cost basis, currently around $75.3K, closely aligns with two key valuation models: the True Market Mean ($72.2K) and the Active Investor Price ($78.4K). These figures represent average investor entry points and provide insights into market sentiment and psychological support zones.
The similarity between IBIT’s cost basis and broader investor metrics signals that ETF flows are shaping overall market positioning. As ETFs continue to integrate into the digital asset landscape, their pricing anchors appear to be merging with those of traditional spot holders.
Bitcoin’s current structure presents a tightening supply backdrop combined with historical volatility compression. ETF holdings are climbing to new highs, particularly through IBIT, while accumulation among both large and small holders persists. With reduced near-term price movement, the likelihood of a significant directional move continues to build.
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