The Altcoin Season Index at 29 suggests a major altcoin rally could emerge as historical patterns and market cycles align.
Recurring volatility clusters and cyclical shifts from Bitcoin to altcoins signal potential for rapid altcoin dominance in coming months.
With Bitcoin dominance peaking and QE expected, a strong altcoin rotation appears likely in the second half of 2025.
As per analyst Michael van de Poppe, the Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 29, signaling Bitcoin dominance is tightening its grip. Historically, every June for the past five years has marked a key bottom in the index. These dips set the stage for altcoin rallies in the second half of each year. Now, with a bullish crypto market and potential quantitative easing (QE) on the horizon, analysts expect another explosive move. The current reading aligns perfectly with previous pre-altseason phases, suggesting a repeat of past surges may be underway.
Moreover, the index’s long-term chart reveals cyclical patterns. Every time the index bottomed near 20, altcoins rebounded with strength. Peaks above 75 often followed, defining periods where altcoins outpaced Bitcoin by a wide margin. Consequently, these zones created brief yet altcoin bull runs.
Chart Patterns Show Predictable Boom-Bust Cycles
Besides the seasonal bottoms, the chart displays recurring volatility clusters. These show sharp shifts from Bitcoin-led markets to altcoin dominance and back. Significantly, these transitions often happened within short timeframes. Investors witnessed the index swinging from lows below 20 to highs above 100 in a matter of weeks.
Source: Micheal Van de Poppe
Additionally, the orange zone is periods where Bitcoin led the market. These stretches occurred during bearish phases, usually lasting several months. However, they were always followed by brief but powerful altcoin recoveries. The blue shaded area, representing altcoin season, shows fast and temporary rallies. These bursts, while short-lived, often generated double- or triple-digit gains for some coins.
Macro Trends Support a Bigger Move in 2025
Moreover, the market setup suggests conditions are ripe for a larger-than-usual altseason. Bitcoin's current dominance leaves altcoins undervalued. Hence, a capital rotation into altcoins seems inevitable.
With inflation tapering and central banks expected to ease policies, crypto may benefit from rising liquidity. Historically, QE boosts risk assets, and altcoins thrive under such environments. Furthermore, altcoin rallies during bull markets often outperform Bitcoin in percentage terms. Consequently, savvy investors keep a close watch on the Altcoin Season Index.
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