ETH rebounds 36.48% in Q2 after a -45% Q1 drop, reclaiming key averages.
Golden cross forms as ETH climbs past $2,570, flipping short-term trend.
Q4 setups grow stronger as ETH holds structure, and historical rhythm aligns.
Ethereum has flipped sentiment after a volatile start to 2025, reclaiming major technical levels and closing Q2 with strength. The cryptocurrency rebounded 36.48% after plunging 45.41% in Q1, reestablishing a neutral-to-bullish setup heading into the second half of the year.
ETH regains momentum after the Golden Cross and quarterly recovery
Ethereum posted a solid bounce in Q2 2025, marking a shift in structure after a steep first-quarter breakdown. This rebound came alongside the formation of a golden cross, signaling the potential for continued upside movement. Traders are now watching ETH’s positioning as it climbs back above long-term averages.
ETH is now trading at $2,571.46 after reclaiming both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the daily chart. The 50-day MA is curving upward while the 200-day MA holds a flat slope of which shows ETH stabilizing after last month’s volatility. The price first broke below both lines in June but quickly regained momentum to form a higher low.
Source: (X)
ETH may hold between $2,400 and $2,650 as long as support levels continue to hold. The golden cross, where the 50-day MA moves above the 200-day-adds strength to the bullish setup. The move confirms buyers are regaining control following a harsh Q1 flush.
Recent price action highlights multiple closes above the moving average cluster, showing conviction despite lacking volume confirmation. ETH's reclaim has been clean and calculated a reactionary bounce, but one built on structure. While pullbacks remain possible, the market appears to be digesting gains rather than rejecting this zone.
Quarterly history shows ETH favors late-year strength
Ethereum’s Q2 gain of 36.48% aligns with the broader seasonal rhythm observed in historical market cycles. This performance, while notable, still trails Q2’s long-term average of 63.80% and sits just above the median of 16.91%. However, this mid-year recovery sets the tone for a possible Q4 follow-through.
https://twitter.com/mobymedia/status/1941010016242487575
According to Moby Media, ETH’s third-quarter averages remain soft, with an overall gain of just 1.13%, while Q4 averages jump to 23.85%. Ethereum has a history of bouncing back after Q3 drops, including a 37.43% slide in 2019. It rallied 104.15% in Q4 2020 and 142.81% in Q4 2017, closing both years on a strong note.
Can ETH follow that same path again? With price holding above key levels and cycle trends pointing higher, momentum leans bullish. Traders are now watching whether ETH can defend its structure as broader market conditions shift.
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