Historical halving cycles show peak between 365–550 days post-halving.
2025 cycle now ~400 days in—mid-range but still climbing.
Potential top projected for September–November based on rhyme.
Bitcoin’s bull runs are tightly coupled with its halving events. Tracking the duration from halving to peak gives insight into when the cycle might top:
2013 cycle: ~365 days to peak
2017 cycle: ~520 days to peak
2021 cycle: ~550 days to peak
These intervals form a rough pattern, with peaks arriving 1–1.5 years after halving.
2025 Cycle: Current Status
The latest halving occurred in April 2024. As of July 2025, it’s roughly 400 days in. That’s already longer than the 2013 cycle, but still shorter than 2017 and 2021 peaks. It suggests we’re in the “final phase” of the bull run—but not quite at the top yet.
When Could the Top Hit?
If history rhymes, we can estimate projected highs:
520 days (2017 rhythm) → September 2025
550 days (2021 pattern) → October 2025
+30 days beyond 550 → November 2025
This narrows the peak window to September–November 2025. While markets don’t always behave uniformly, this gives a strategic framework for profit-taking.
$BTC (1M) – Cycle top projection
Bitcoin is entering the final phase of its bull run.
If we measure the number of days from each halving to the cycle top:
2013: ~365 days
2017: ~520 days
2021: ~550 days
Current cycle: ~400 days
That’s already longer than… pic.twitter.com/Uj6Qp3mYbv
— CrypFlow (@_Crypflow_) July 3, 2025
Takeaway for Investors
With the cycle advancing past 400 days, now is the time to evaluate positions. Consider:
Scaling out gradually into the September–November window
Setting price alerts around historical peak trajectories
Maintaining crypto exposure for possible upside but securing gains ahead
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