Germany's early Bitcoin liquidation in 2024 cost over $2.35B in unrealized gains as BTC surged more than 80% post-sale.
Analysts say Germany’s rushed multi-exchange BTC sales created excess market pressure and triggered a temporary price downturn.
Technical forecasts using Elliott Wave analysis suggest Bitcoin may climb above $200K by late 2025 following a bullish breakout.
Germany’s government sold nearly 50,000 BTC in mid-2024, missing out on over $2.35 billion in unrealized profit. The decision to offload Bitcoin at an average price of $57,900 led to heavy criticism from the crypto community. If held, the stash would now be worth $5.24 billion, based on current market prices.
According to Arkham Intelligence, these sales appeared rushed and poorly optimized for market impact. The BTC came from assets seized from the operators of Movie2k, a defunct film piracy website. The German-labeled wallet first transferred 6,500 BTC on June 19, 2024, signaling a sell-off that spooked the market. Consequently, this wave of liquidation contributed to Bitcoin’s price correction in mid-2024.
Selling Pressure Weighed Heavily on the Market
Miguel Morel, founder of Arkham, criticized the government’s liquidation strategy. He pointed out that using multiple exchanges for market selling drained liquidity across platforms. Hence, instead of maximizing profit, the move created avoidable selling pressure.
Moreover, Morel highlighted that the sudden liquidation patterns gave traders little time to react. The market remained uncertain for weeks until the wallet finally ran dry. By July 14, the wallet had no BTC left. Bitcoin quickly rebounded above $60,000, ending the cloud of government-driven sell pressure.
Besides the market reaction, many believe this sale was poorly timed. Bitcoin has surged over 80% since the sale concluded. This rise aligns with a strong technical breakout pattern that formed earlier in 2024.
Bullish Technical Structure Points Toward $200K
Meanwhile, technical analyst CrediBULL Crypto sees Bitcoin heading much higher. Based on Elliott Wave analysis, Bitcoin sits in the early stages of Wave 5. The structure shows higher lows throughout 2023 and 2024, reinforcing a bullish market trend.
Source: CrediBULL Crypto
A breakout from a long triangle consolidation in mid-2024 marks renewed momentum. The current wave structure projects a potential peak above $200,000 by late 2025. Additionally, Roman numeral wave counts indicate Bitcoin may still be in a long-term growth cycle.
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