Global liquidity rose by $1.92 trillion, showing a 1.43% weekly gain, as the Fed held steady on monetary policy adjustments.
Alpha Extract’s RDE model signals declining reserve expectations since February, suggesting growing macro pressure for potential policy support ahead.
Bitcoin defies seasonal sell-off trends, driven by sustained liquidity growth and strong alignment with broader economic indicators rather than market sentiment.
Global Liquidity persists to grow, closely following that of Bitcoin as the Federal Reserve keeps to its current position. With monetary reserves falling, eyes turn to macroeconomic indicators influencing digital asset trends for the remainder of 2025.
Fed on Pause While Liquidity Climbs
According to Alpha Extract, the Federal Reserve remains inactive, while global liquidity shows renewed strength. Their proprietary Global Liquidity model recorded an increase of $1.923 trillion last week, marking a 1.43% gain. The three-month Rate of Change (RoC) remains positive, suggesting continued momentum.
This growth in liquidity coincides with rising Bitcoin prices, reinforcing its correlation to broader financial conditions rather than short-term fluctuations. The model indicates that Bitcoin responds more to macro liquidity trends than speculative news cycles.
RDE Model and Reserve Signals
Alpha Extract also shared that the RDE model, tracking Reserve Drain Expectations, has declined steadily since February 2025. This reduction signals increasing pressure on the Fed to act in the months ahead. As reserves dwindle, support measures may become necessary to stabilize the financial system.
With liquidity moving upward and no active tightening from the Fed, the environment remains favorable for digital assets. Bitcoin appears to be aligning with its traditional role—as a hedge against weakening reserve-backed systems.
Bitcoin’s Momentum Defies Seasonal Trends
Historically, the phrase “sell in May and go away” influences market behavior during mid-year. However, this cycle appears to diverge from past patterns. Alpha Extract argues that such strategies may be outdated, given the strength of global liquidity and Bitcoin’s consistent response.
Current models suggest Bitcoin could continue its upward move as liquidity expands. The positive momentum reflected in the three-month RoC indicates a sustained trend rather than a temporary spike.
With macroeconomic fundamentals in line and liquidity increasing, digital asset markets could be ready to continue trending higher throughout the second half of 2025. Bitcoin is still closely linked to general global liquidity, further supporting its long-term status as part of the financial ecosystem.
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