Bitcoin's traditional cycle model weakens as institutional inflows and ETFs introduce new liquidity and shift market dynamics.
The 365-day moving average remains a strong long-term signal, supporting Bitcoin’s sustained bullish trend above $60,000 in 2025.
On-chain indicators stay neutral as the market absorbs institutional capital, marking a transitional phase in Bitcoin’s evolution.
Bitcoin's market structure is undergoing a profound transformation with the growth in institutional liquidity, redefining classic price cycle hypotheses. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju's recent comments signal a change in approach, and he has withdrawn his earlier comment stating that the bull cycle had ended. Rather, speeding inflows of massive institutional money and ETFs are propelling the market to unprecedented heights.
Besides, the traditional model of whales, miners, and retail investors exchanging positions is losing relevance. In the past, market tops were easier to predict. Old whales would cash out, triggering rapid sell-offs and deep corrections. That behavior resembled a game of Musical Chairs—whoever didn’t exit in time got stuck holding. However, those days appear to be over.
Institutions Redefine Bitcoin Liquidity Flow
Now, the game is bigger and more complex. Institutions, ETFs, MicroStrategy, and even government agencies are entering the market. Consequently, the scale of new liquidity entering the ecosystem far outweighs earlier whale sell-offs. This change dilutes the impact of old players and introduces new volatility patterns.
Source: Ki Young Ju
Moreover, Ju acknowledges that the market currently feels sluggish, absorbing these inflows slowly. Most on-chain indicators hover near neutral territory. Although price action remains bullish, especially with Bitcoin holding above $60,000, the broader cycle trend appears undecided. Significantly, this neutral state complicates conventional profit-taking cycles.
In addition, the technical context offers valuable information. The 365-day moving average (ma_365) continues to rise, and it indicates a longer-term rise. Historically, every time the ma_365 rose above zero, Bitcoin returned rather forcefully. The trend occurred in 2013, 2017, and also in 2020–2021.
Technical Patterns Support Long-Term Bullish Outlook
Each instance of a rising ma_365 aligned with major bull runs. In contrast, downtrends in the ma_365 matched multi-year price corrections. Hence, its current upward slope suggests the market is still in expansion mode. Since early 2024, the ma_365 has remained above zero, supporting Bitcoin’s push past $60,000 in 2025.
Furthermore, the ma_365 has consistently served as a reliable long-term indicator across all Bitcoin market cycles. The ongoing pattern confirms that this metric still holds value despite changing dynamics.
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