Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin’s post-halving price pattern suggests a cycle top between $130K and $150K by October 2025.
Onchain data shows new investor activity rising while long-term holders aren’t capitulating.
Institutional buying continues to absorb supply, keeping the bull cycle structurally healthy.
Bitcoin (BTC) $116,483 may be entering the final 90-day countdown of its current bull market, with historical halving-cycle patterns signaling that the next major top could hit by October 2025.
A recurring “tick-tock fractal,” tracked by analyst CryptoBullet, shows Bitcoin typically peaks 518–546 days after each halving. The latest halving occurred on April 15, 2024, meaning BTC is now within 77 days of a potential cycle high.
“BTC Bull Cycle: only 3 months left. Tick tock, tick tock,”
CryptoBullet posted, suggesting Bitcoin could top out around $150,000 — with some forecasts stretching toward $200,000 by year-end.
Onchain Data Backs the Bullish Case
Data from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. shows “young coins” (BTC bought in the last few months) make up just 30% of market activity — well below overheated levels seen at previous tops:
64% in March 2024
72% in December 2024
When new investor activity dominates, markets typically enter euphoric profit-taking phases. Today’s reading suggests room for further upside before hitting those extremes.
Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) — wallets holding BTC for 3+ years — show no signs of mass selling.
“A coefficient of 0.3 means old supply is absorbing new demand without major shocks,” Adler Jr. noted.
“From the perspective of long-term wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.”
Institutions Keep Accumulating BTC
A key factor supporting Bitcoin’s structure is institutional absorption. Corporations, ETFs, and asset managers continue to buy BTC, offsetting retail sell-offs and stabilizing price action.
This steady inflow has helped Bitcoin maintain rangebound strength near $116K–$120K while setting up for what could be the final surge of the bull cycle.
What’s Next for BTC?
If the “tick-tock” fractal holds, October 2025 could mark the post-halving cycle peak, with price targets between $130K and $150K.
Some analysts are even more aggressive, suggesting $180K–$200K if ETF flows and institutional demand accelerate.
For now, onchain trends remain healthy, long-term holders aren’t panicking, and the clock is ticking toward Bitcoin’s potential cycle high, according to Cointelegraph.
