According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson has increased the likelihood of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a new high within the next 100 days, maintaining an optimistic outlook for 2025. In his analysis shared on X, Peterson linked BTC's price movements to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures 30-day market volatility expectations. He noted that the VIX index has decreased from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days. A VIX score below 18 suggests a 'risk-on' environment, which is favorable for assets like Bitcoin. Peterson's model, boasting a 95% tracking accuracy, forecasts a $135,000 target for Bitcoin if the VIX remains low. This prediction aligns with Bitcoin's sensitivity to market sentiment, as a low VIX reduces uncertainty and encourages investment in riskier assets.
Fidelity's director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, offered insights into Bitcoin's volatility, likening its nature to 'Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.' Timmer highlighted Bitcoin's dual role as both a store of value (Dr. Jekyll) and a speculative asset (Mr. Hyde), setting it apart from gold, which remains a consistent 'hard money' asset. He emphasized the interplay between Bitcoin and the global money supply, noting that when M2 has grown and the stock market is rallying, Bitcoin tends to perform well due to its dual attributes. However, when M2 grows and equities correct, Bitcoin's performance is less predictable. This underscores Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, making its performance less stable compared to gold.
In related developments, data from CryptoQuant revealed that the stablecoin market capitalization has reached a record $220 billion, indicating a liquidity surge in the crypto market. This marks Bitcoin's exit from a bearish phase as capital flows return, suggesting that new BTC highs could be on the horizon in the coming weeks. Despite Bitcoin's ongoing uptrend, lower-time frame charts indicate a shift in market dynamics. The funding rate for BTC futures has turned negative again, signaling an increase in short positions as traders bet against the rally. The 4-hour chart's funding rate has reached its most negative level in 2025, showing that short-side liquidity significantly exceeds long-side liquidity, creating conditions for a potential short squeeze.
This imbalance could drive BTC toward the $100,000 level. Cointelegraph noted that over $3 billion is at risk for short-side liquidation, which may amplify upward momentum and catch bearish traders off guard. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
