#fomcwatch THE OPEN MARKET WEEK IN CAUTION — MACRO PRESSURE NOT EASED
Crypto kicks off the new week in a gloomy state. Early this morning, Bitcoin was quickly swept down to the 93,000 USD range just before the weekly candle closed, marking the third consecutive red week and the lowest price since May 2025. The weak recovery momentum indicates that the market is still significantly influenced by defensive sentiment.
From the Fed's side, officials continue to signal hawkishness. Logan remarked that he cannot support a rate cut yet, while Schmid warned that cutting too early could prolong inflationary pressures. Only Miran leans towards a rate cut, but this view is not enough to change market expectations.
On the fiscal side, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the 2,000 USD airdrop still awaits Congressional approval, likely to be implemented next year and not distributed directly, but rather through tax exemptions/reductions. This means that supportive cash flow is still far off, and the market must continue to operate in a tight liquidity environment.
The probability that the Fed will cut rates three times in 2025, according to trading data on Kalshi, has dropped to 47%. This signals that expectations for monetary policy easing are clearly weakening compared to the period of October–November, when the market almost believed that the Fed would accelerate the rate-cutting cycle to support growth.