Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below).
Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it.
Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏
$BTC is forming another consolidation channel on the lower timeframes. It’s still holding within the broader uptrend, and so far, no price action suggests that trend is reversing. But — this is Bitcoin we’re talking about. It loves to drop vertically without warning. Just a gentle reminder: risk management isn’t optional.
🔼 The bullish scenario is straightforward: If the bounce from the bottom holds, we could see a move to 111.8K — and maybe even a new ATH.
🔽 On the bearish side, there are liquidity pools around 110,000 and 108,400 just waiting to be revisited. When will that happen? No one knows. But when it does, those zones are prime candidates for high-RR bounce scalps.
$BTC has broken out of the parallel channel and just printed a new All-Time High 🚀
At the moment, Bitcoin is outperforming every other market. What I wrote yesterday about stock indices still holds true. But shorting the Crypto King while it’s exploring ATH territory makes little sense.
At this stage, the best move is to wait for the US market open and see how the *burgers* react to Asia’s pump.
📉 If stocks start a correction — BTC will follow, even with a new ATH behind it. 📈 But if equities push for another swing toward their 2024 highs — crypto is safe and likely to continue outperforming everything else.
$BTC remains in an uptrend within a rising parallel channel. It wicked above the top but got rejected and is now pulling back toward the midrange, which aligns with the developing monthly VWAP VAH.
A return to the bottom of the range is possible — that’s the nature of ranges — but for now, the nearest support should be viewed as a buy opportunity, with a fixed risk below yesterday’s swing low at 104115.
In the past 24 hours over 157k traders were liquidated, totaling $668 million in losses. Yes, that was a crazy bloody Sunday. At least for FOMO and greed traders. For you my friends, I am sure it was calm and happy. Cause we don't trade during weekends 😉
In any case, #Bitcoin price action didn't go beyond key zones I've marked on Friday. Actually it played almost by plan. Yesterday evening in Premium Chat I noted, that liquidity pool around 102800 got filled only during weekend, and so it has high chances to be revisited during Asia session - so it happened ✅
WHAT TO EXPECT SHORT TERM?
Short term I think BTC has good chances to bounce back to the middle of that parallel channel - should be in between 104-105k. The rest depends. If Monday close with bearish engulfing this week might become a start of correction stage. Which is absolutely ok after 6 green weeks in a row. Reminder that I wrote about that scenario before marking out possible range in between 99-100k and 106-107k
Friends, I’m glad my review from yesterday played out perfectly 👌🏼
$BTC touched both sides of the range — just as expected. The first dip got a strong bullish reaction, pushing price back up into a breakout. Liquidity on both sides was collected like clockwork 👍🏼
🧭 What Now? First of all — respect the pump. While momentum is alive, price can go higher.
📌 Nearest upside levels to watch: • 96475 – November close • 97500 – EQ of 1H FVG • 98455 – Developing Year VWAP VAH
🔁 Once we see clear signs of slowdown, prepare for a retest of breakout zone: 95770–95427
📉 April closed at 94125 — pretty low, and so far the monthly candle has no buy tail, which is a potential concern. Doesn’t guarantee a drop — but keep it in mind.
⚠️ New 4H CME gap formed at 95760–95295 Likely to be filled during the next session. It will act as a magnet: If price is above → can pull down. If below → can pull it up.
$BTC remains in a choppy sideways structure. Today is the last day of the month, so it's best to wait for the monthly candle close.
So far, the developing monthly candle looks bullish, giving reason to expect higher prices in May. BUT — price is still sitting in a high timeframe resistance zone, and the weekly market structure hasn't flipped bullish yet. ⚠️ That means: Any bullish continuation in May should be approached with caution, as it may end up rejected and lead to a multi-month correction.
🔍 Lower Timeframe Observations: BTC still can't hold above the March high at 94971. Each pump above that level gets sold off and dips back to the bottom of a tight range around the 2024 close.
Both sides of this range have been tested multiple times, making them weaker and prone to breakout — but liquidity is stacked on both sides, so any breakout could reverse sharply in the opposite direction.
📉 Dips to 93550 may give a bounce — But if no reaction comes, the next target is 91K–91.5K. 📈 Pumps above 95K should only be taken seriously if at least two 4H candles close above. If it pumps straight up and you’re not in long — better wait for a short opportunity after overextension.
$BTC made a quick dip into the FVG I mentioned in yesterday’s review and bounced, closing the daily candle with a bullish engulfing.
However, on lower timeframes, that bullish engulfing turned into a choppy Monday with no clear dominance from either side. March high at 94971 remains an important level — if April closes above it, it will be another bullish signal. We still have 1.5 days left before the month ends.
On the Weekly timeframe, bullish market shift confirmation still requires a breakout above 99432. On the Daily, the confirmation has already happened.
BTC is now only 4.8% away from that weekly trigger, so we might see an attempt to push it there within this week — whether it succeeds or not is a different story.
The nearest target zone for bullish moves is: - Above last week's high at 95770 - Developing Year VAH around ~98336
Yesterday’s low at 92700 must hold — If it breaks, we risk a dip back toward the bottom of the consolidation range (~91.9K) or even deeper corrections toward 89400 / 90400 / 88400.
$BERA still consolidates after the dump. I believe here price have found fair value and so any sharp move far from that level will be returned back. But will indicate the direction it can continue after the bounce. On its own it is bearish, but together with overall market bullishness maybe those launchpad coins will also grow a little.
Targets I've mentioned before at 5.25 / 5.7 remain valid as these levels correlate with range bottom broken down on April 6th.
$XRP grown above critical level and still haven't generated enough volume to think, that dip buyers took full profit and flipped short. So nearest target I've mentioned over two weeks ago remains valid (although minimum TP for 2.5 RR achieved).
Obviously everything depends on BTC as it is the one pushing USDT prices. Against Bitcoin #Ripple is still in lower timeframe choppy correction for almost 1.5 months. And only on weekly it moves within 154 days old bull flag consolidation range.
Who is more crazy - Trump or people buying his meme coin at this level?
Meanwhile if you count waves/impulses, there is still some space for another one and the only area that make sense pushing to it liquidity above 17.75 - no guarantees, but manipulators won't find much liquidity below that level.
After that $TRUMP will drop back into correction with nearest support zones <13 and <11
$BTC remains within a bullish consolidation pattern. The Asia session pushed price back above Friday’s close, creating a FVG around 93944–94550, which is now the nearest zone for quick bullish dips.
Today’s low at 92700 should hold — otherwise, we risk a dip back toward the potential bottom of the consolidation range around 91.9K, or a deeper correction into the 89400 / 90400 / 88400 zones.
S&P 500 closed last week bullish but remains trapped in a choppy structure, constantly chasing old gaps while leaving new ones behind. That’s why I doubt the market is fully out of the trenches yet — meaning there will be more opportunities to buy dips. Especially important now, since the month is ending — only 3 trading days left before the MONTHLY candle close!
$AIXBT showing some volume - I believe 0.1353-0.140 now is the top of the range that was tested multiple times. Once AIXBT gets above, it will fly towards ~0.2
That is 50% from CMP and over 120% from possible dip buy zone I indicated around 0.094
ADA’s correction from the March pump dragged on longer and went deeper than many expected. In the end, price even dropped below its pre-pump level.
The nearest bearish OB is around the 0.73 zone. A breakout above that could open the path toward a retest of the 2024 close at 0.844, and possibly even 0.92.
I’ve drawn $ADA long setup that offers a 2:1 risk-reward.
Personally, I won’t take it — doesn’t make much sense to wait that long for such a modest payoff.
But for those interested, it’s better to ladder your entries: 0.66 / 0.63 / 0.59
#Ethereum remains within downtrend against BTC. So USDT chart can be rather misleading. Just keep that in mind.
Pectra upgrade in two weeks is one of the most anticipated fundamental crypto events that should help ETH to recover. At least theoretically. So closer to that date ETH can start growing to price in the changes.
So we know approximate time of sell-off - May 7th. What will be the price yet hard to forecast. The least expected is re-test of developing decade VWAP around 1960. Going there won't change the trend on weekly, so it is a bearish target. For bullish targets I'd start with 2023 close at 2283.