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In the future, we will share more timely information in the group: secondary tradable cryptocurrencies, on-chain meme coins, and more operational interaction guidance.
We will also periodically distribute red envelopes and hold giveaways in the group.
1. MicroStrategy bomb: When STRC falls below 100, the company may be forced to sell more BTC to cover interest, triggering a “sell BTC → dump the market → keep falling” vicious cycle
2. Big money left: BTC spot ETFs continued to see outflows totaling 53.5 billion yuan; institutions shifted to buying U.S. stocks/other assets
3. Internal diversion: Funds in the crypto sector have been lured away by new plays such as RWA, so BTC is no longer the only option
The May inflation data released on June 25 was actually published as early as June 11, and the market had already priced in this shock by then.
This is just a routine monthly economic data update, with no over-the-top "surprise" beyond expectations—so it’s perfectly normal that BTC chooses to stay put.
Capital isn't about your current skills, it's about whether you can keep making money in the future.
HBM shortages are expected to last at least until 2027. This means Micron can just sit back and stack cash for the next couple of years.
Micron sells products for 100 bucks and nets 85 bucks in profit, that's even better than flipping meth 💰
$MUB
秃子 来了
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【Micron's stock skyrocketed last night! Just how good was the earnings report?!】
Yesterday, Micron's stock dipped to $994, but once the earnings report dropped, it exploded to $1215, completely wiping out recent losses.
Let’s check out Micron's comeback from yesterday:
1. Profitability is on another level:
· Quarterly revenue hit $41.4 billion (4.5 times last year’s same quarter), and the net profit is mind-blowing. The gross margin reached 84.9%—meaning for every $100 in sales, they netted $85, which is a higher margin than selling illicit goods (normal chip makers usually hover around 40%).
· It’s not just about selling mobile memory; they're cashing in on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for AI servers. This stuff is in super high demand, and prices are skyrocketing.
2. CEO's message: Good times are still ahead:
· The market fears “peak performance,” but Micron is throwing shade: next quarter's guidance is significantly higher than analyst expectations (projected revenue of $50 billion, with a 20% QoQ increase).
· Management clearly stated that the memory demand driven by AI is still in its early stages, with HBM shortages expected to last at least until 2027. This means Micron can just sit back and count its money for the next two to three years.
3. A perfect comeback script:
· Before the earnings report, rumors of a slowdown in production from competitor SK Hynix caused Micron’s stock to plummet 13%. But once the earnings report hit with explosive numbers, it slapped the shorts in the face, surging 16% in after-hours trading, completely erasing the prior day's losses.
In summary:
Micron is “clinging tightly to the AI wave, raking in profits, and delivering results that have the market expectations grinding on the ground.” The stock surged 15% in after-hours because everyone realized they’re not just making bank now, but can make even more next quarter, and this AI opportunity is going to last a while.
【Micron's stock skyrocketed last night! Just how good was the earnings report?!】
Yesterday, Micron's stock dipped to $994, but once the earnings report dropped, it exploded to $1215, completely wiping out recent losses.
Let’s check out Micron's comeback from yesterday:
1. Profitability is on another level:
· Quarterly revenue hit $41.4 billion (4.5 times last year’s same quarter), and the net profit is mind-blowing. The gross margin reached 84.9%—meaning for every $100 in sales, they netted $85, which is a higher margin than selling illicit goods (normal chip makers usually hover around 40%).
· It’s not just about selling mobile memory; they're cashing in on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for AI servers. This stuff is in super high demand, and prices are skyrocketing.
2. CEO's message: Good times are still ahead:
· The market fears “peak performance,” but Micron is throwing shade: next quarter's guidance is significantly higher than analyst expectations (projected revenue of $50 billion, with a 20% QoQ increase).
· Management clearly stated that the memory demand driven by AI is still in its early stages, with HBM shortages expected to last at least until 2027. This means Micron can just sit back and count its money for the next two to three years.
3. A perfect comeback script:
· Before the earnings report, rumors of a slowdown in production from competitor SK Hynix caused Micron’s stock to plummet 13%. But once the earnings report hit with explosive numbers, it slapped the shorts in the face, surging 16% in after-hours trading, completely erasing the prior day's losses.
In summary:
Micron is “clinging tightly to the AI wave, raking in profits, and delivering results that have the market expectations grinding on the ground.” The stock surged 15% in after-hours because everyone realized they’re not just making bank now, but can make even more next quarter, and this AI opportunity is going to last a while.
Airdrop Requirements: Twitter account must have at least 20 followers and be over 60 days old.
Event Quota: Randomly select 10,000 users, each receiving 166 tokens.
Event Time: June 24th 20:40 - July 2nd 07:59
Task 1⃣: Follow the official Twitter Task 2⃣: Follow the official Twitter, account must be registered for >60 days and have >20 followers Task 3⃣: Retweet the official Twitter Task 4⃣: Retweet the official Twitter Task 5⃣: Correctly answer 3 questions, answers are: C, B, C.
Consistently breaking below 63k/62k/61k, with a low of 60,866, down 7.6% over 9 days, and all rebounds are false recoveries.
In the evening, the 4-hour chart shows a breakout with increased volume; bulls need to stop-loss; contract rates are neutral, and open interest is declining, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.1 (bears are crowded), and selling pressure remains unrelieved.
On the news front, everything is bullish: · 21Shares says year-end target is $100k · Morgan Stanley has scooped up 126 BTC · Greeks.live warns of potential explosive price action before and after quarterly settlements.
But the price just keeps dropping. Bullish sentiment can't support the price, which is the most dangerous signal.
A few key levels: · Resistance: 62,500 (short-term stabilization prerequisite), 63,200 (strong resistance) · Support: 60,866/60,000 (first line), 59,080 (core defense line), if broken, look for 55k-56k, deeper at 52k.
If you're looking to short:
· Current price shorting has low risk-reward (1:1.6) · Best: short on a rebound to 62,000-62,500, stop-loss at 63,200, target 59,000 (risk-reward 1:2.6) · Alternative: short on a break below 60,866, stop-loss at 61,500.
There are basically two outcomes: ① Hold above 59,080, bottoming out at 59k-60k ② Break down, probing around 55k
Ethereum Foundation lays off 54 people, Solana founder says 'bullish!'
On the evening of June 23, EF announced a comprehensive organizational restructuring: Divided into five major functional clusters: protocol layer, access layer, user layer, community layer, and institutional layer. At the same time, around 54 people (20%) were laid off, with budget cuts of about 40%. In the future, the annual spending rate will gradually decrease from ~15% to ~5% after 2030, shifting to a donation fund-driven long-term model.
Vitalik Buterin responds Vitalik responded: This is not just a simple 'quality enhancement and efficiency improvement,' but a 'real loss' — some projects are terminated, capabilities are lost, and contributors are leaving. For example: the PSE (Privacy and Scalability) team is gradually winding down, Devcon (the conference) is getting smaller, and there's reduced investment in external large projects.
Ethereum Foundation lays off 54 people, Solana founder says 'bullish!'
On the evening of June 23, EF announced a comprehensive organizational restructuring: Divided into five major functional clusters: protocol layer, access layer, user layer, community layer, and institutional layer. At the same time, around 54 people (20%) were laid off, with budget cuts of about 40%. In the future, the annual spending rate will gradually decrease from ~15% to ~5% after 2030, shifting to a donation fund-driven long-term model. Vitalik Buterin responds Vitalik responded: This is not just a simple 'quality enhancement and efficiency improvement,' but a 'real loss' — some projects are terminated, capabilities are lost, and contributors are leaving. For example: the PSE (Privacy and Scalability) team is gradually winding down, Devcon (the conference) is getting smaller, and there's reduced investment in external large projects.
1、$H · Tomorrow's unlock: 269.73M tokens (mainly core contributors), worth about $28.9M · On-chain dynamics: Significant sell pressure has emerged, with a total inflow to exchanges worth around $3.6M · Overall: Some tokens have already been dumped (approximately $7M), short-term selling pressure is substantial
2、$sahara · Originally scheduled for unlock on the 26th, the team announced a delay at dawn (investors extended by 3 months, team/advisors by 6 months) · The actual unlock on 6.26 is part of the earlier ecological community · Positive aspects: · Product is about to launch perpetual contracts, strategy backtesting, Alpha signal monitoring, etc. · Next week there’s a multi-chain expansion + corporate collaboration announcement · The second phase of staking is about to go live · Negative aspects: · No burn/buyback plan · Product and narrative are still in the pie-in-the-sky phase, lacking strong short-term support · On-chain: Exchange wallets are active, with small deposits to exchanges
3、$xpl · Unlock on 6.25: 88.88M tokens, worth about $7.91M. · Positive aspects: Plasma One product has received high praise, introducing cashback and membership (requires holding tokens)
4、$gua · Unlock on 6.27: 21.99M tokens, accounting for 48.9% of circulating market cap, worth about $13.33M · Characteristics: Lots of bad press, has switched to market makers, clearly a relationship/airdrop token. Initially almost pulled back to a high point, but the fundamentals are weak
5、$id · Unlocked on the 22nd: 69.87M tokens, worth about $2.57M, most of which has been deposited into Binance Additionally, about 500M in a large transfer occurred 13 hours ago (not from this unlock), related to reallocation of unblocked amounts from advisors/seed rounds/ecological marketing foundations/core teams, worth about $16M
Overall commentary: This round of unlocks is mainly focused on older tokens: · H has the most direct selling pressure · SAHARA has a delay buffer but still needs to deliver on products · XPL has relatively solid product support · GUA poses the highest risk driven purely by narrative/relationships · ID has basically landed. Short-term focus should be on large on-chain flows and actual selling pressure
· Market Expectation: Revenue ~ $33.5 billion (significant YOY growth), EPS ~ $20 · Drivers: Strong demand for AI data center HBM/DRAM, HBM capacity locked in for hyperscalers for the year, server DRAM prices on the rise · Beneficiary Tokens: MU, NVDA, AMKR · Points of Interest: Earnings guidance + HBM capacity updates, confirmation of AI memory shortages
2. Qualcomm Investor Day (Today in New York)
· Highlights: Agentic AI, Data Center Dragonfly platform, Industrial/Physical AI, 6G strategy · Goal: Showcase diversified growth paths beyond mobile · Beneficiary Tokens: QCOM, NVDA · Points of Interest: Details on data center AI strategy, platform capabilities, and partnership info
3. NVIDIA's Robotics and European Supercomputing Strategy
· Latest Moves: Launching Halos for Robotics (Physical AI Safety System), BioNeMo Agent Toolkit; 35 AI supercomputing projects across Europe (covering 23 countries, 3 million+ researchers), advancing the Vera Rubin platform · Beneficiary Tokens: NVDA Points of Interest: Speed of actual implementation in robotics and HPC ecosystems, demand feedback
4. Alphabet (GOOGL) Officially Added to Dow
· S&P Dow Jones Index Adjustment: GOOGL replaces Verizon in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Effective before June 29) · Significance: Further confirmation of the shift in U.S. stock indices from traditional telecom to a tech/AI-dominated landscape · Beneficiary Tokens: GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, symbolically strong, highlighting tech weight increase
5. Data Center Supply Chain Heating Up
· AI infrastructure expansion driving demand for memory, connectivity, and infrastructure; some firms have locked in long-term orders · Beneficiary Tokens: MU, GLW, VRT Points of Interest: Validation of hyperscaler capital expenditures and execution rhythm
Today's Trading Focus:
MU earnings + QCOM Investor Day serve as short-term catalysts, with AI memory (HBM/DRAM) and data center themes being the most directly benefited. NVIDIA's ongoing moves in robotics and supercomputing further strengthen the narrative of AI in the physical world.
This article might be a bit lengthy, but I've tried to cover all bases as much as possible.
Here's the AI's summarized version for a quick read.
秃子 来了
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A Little Class on US Stocks—What Exactly Are the US and Asian Markets Dropping From Last Night to Today?
After a drop in the US stock market last night, today the Asian markets are also taking a hit. On the surface, it looks like a flood of 'bad news', but if you break it down piece by piece, you'll find that there’s really only one core bearish factor—market doubts whether the AI giants can keep burning cash like this in the long run. First, let's lay out four reasons for the dip, and then we’ll tackle them one by one:
1. Interest rate hike expectations are back, and big tech takes the first hit. Recently, the market feels like the Fed is sounding pretty hawkish, and with the recent CPI data not looking great, the chatter about 'rate cuts being delayed even longer' is coming back.
A Little Class on US Stocks—What Exactly Are the US and Asian Markets Dropping From Last Night to Today?
After a drop in the US stock market last night, today the Asian markets are also taking a hit. On the surface, it looks like a flood of 'bad news', but if you break it down piece by piece, you'll find that there’s really only one core bearish factor—market doubts whether the AI giants can keep burning cash like this in the long run. First, let's lay out four reasons for the dip, and then we’ll tackle them one by one: 1. Interest rate hike expectations are back, and big tech takes the first hit. Recently, the market feels like the Fed is sounding pretty hawkish, and with the recent CPI data not looking great, the chatter about 'rate cuts being delayed even longer' is coming back.
【Space X Drops 40%, What's Behind the Flash Crash】
Space X's price has plummeted from a high of $220 to $150, marking a 40% drop.
But right now, there’s a gang of traders hoping for Space X’s price to tank even more!
What’s going on here?
This mainly stems from the $60 billion deal between Cursor and SpaceX.
Cursor is currently the hottest AI code editor out there, essentially the 'ChatGPT of coding.' It's the top player in the AI development tools space, boasting the highest valuation and hottest buzz.
This $60 billion deal means SpaceX plans to acquire Cursor for $60 billion.
However, SpaceX isn’t just pulling out $60 billion in cash to grab Cursor; they’re using their own stock as currency to make the acquisition.
And what Cursor receives isn’t cash, but SpaceX shares.
Let’s break it down with a simple analogy:
· You sold your house back home (Cursor) to developer Musk. · Musk didn’t give you cash; instead, he handed you a bunch of his company’s stocks (SpaceX shares). · Since the development company is booming, those stocks are valuable, so you were happy to sell.
However, here’s the kicker: SpaceX’s acquisition price for Cursor is $60 billion, but because SpaceX is using stock as currency, there’s no set number of shares specified!
This is quite crafty. If SpaceX's stock drops, that $60 billion could translate to more shares of SpaceX. In other words:
· If SpaceX's stock falls to $100 → Cursor could exchange for 600 million shares of SpaceX. · If SpaceX's stock crashes to $10 → Cursor could snag 6 billion shares of SpaceX.
So if you’re on the Cursor side, you’d definitely want SpaceX to drop as much as possible to grab more shares, banking on a future rebound for bigger profits.
But retail investors are clueless about this. They see the stock price drop 40% in two days and panic, thinking, "It's over, it's a Ponzi scheme, better run!" So they cut losses and sell their shares, causing a stampede.
In short, this crash is a result of a bunch of big players hoping for a drop, scaring off uninformed retail investors. Once the retail crowd is cleared out, it could be a prime opportunity to scoop up some bargains.
1. Intel (INTC) · New CEO sets ambitious target: Chen Liwu vows to deliver 10x returns in 5-10 years · Focusing on cutting-edge tech like EMIB advanced packaging, glass substrates, and synthetic diamonds, plus collaborating with Musk on the Terafab project · Watchlist: INTC, AMKR · Key points: Major tech upgrades + revival in AI CPU demand
2. Amazon (AMZN) · Selling self-developed AI chips, challenging Nvidia's Trainium which is flying off the shelves; negotiating to sell the fourth generation to capture Nvidia's market share and expand cloud business · Watchlist: AMZN, NVDA · Key points: Cloud giant accelerating commercialization of self-developed chips
3. SpaceX plans to issue $20 billion in bonds · To pay off bridge loans and support AI infrastructure and Starlink expansion · Watchlist: SpaceX-related, NVDA · Key points: AI + space computing synergy financing coming to fruition
4. Meta aggressively acquiring AI computing power, cloud giants facing EU regulations · Meta signs a massive 1.6 GW deal with Crusoe; Microsoft and Amazon may face strict scrutiny under the EU's Digital Markets Act · Watchlist: META, AMZN, MSFT · Key points: Accelerating procurement vs regulatory pressure
5. Anthropic partners with the White House + localization of rare earths · Anthropic strengthens security for regulatory relief; US grants Energy Fuels $725 million loan for domestic rare earth processing · Watchlist: UUUU · Key points: AI safety + reducing dependency on critical minerals
Summary: The AI computing supply chain is ramping up, with major players taking significant actions and supportive policies, providing clear short-term catalysts.
Is SpaceX's $2 trillion valuation too high? Let’s break it down. First, let’s flip through the books: this price doesn’t make sense. Forget Mars, let’s focus on the actual performance in 2025. Annual revenue is $18.7 billion, and after costs, the operating cash flow is only $6.6 billion. Adding R&D, depreciation, stock-based compensation, etc., they end up with a net loss of $4.9 billion. In Q1 2026, revenue is projected at $4.7 billion, with the full year expected to be just over $19 billion. With this report card, the market is giving a $2 trillion valuation: that's 107 times revenue and 300 times operating cash flow. Comparatively, AT&T’s price-to-sales ratio has been around 1x long-term, AWS going public at 10x is already considered high, while the hottest SaaS companies are valued at 30-40x, which is the top premium. SpaceX is still losing $4.9 billion but sports a 107x revenue valuation, which simply doesn’t hold up in traditional models.
$HYPE has hit a new high again, but it's not about the price.
On-chain data shows that the whale address holding over 10,000 coins for $HYPE has reached a historical high, but retail addresses are actually decreasing.
A lot of people get excited when they see this, thinking that whales are accumulating, and this is the prelude to a moonshot.
But personally, I think this signal may not be that optimistic and we should be cautious.
1. More whales doesn’t mean they’re buying.
The 10K+ addresses increased by 25, but this could be due to exchange wallets consolidating or market makers helping to unlock tokens for absorption.
Market makers typically respond by shorting in futures to hedge, not by pumping the price.
As passive whales increase, the selling pressure intensifies.
2. Just because the price holds doesn’t mean the supply has been digested.
From last September to now, the HYPE linear unlock.
The result was a rise from 60 to over 70, which looks strong.
However, large unlocks are usually sold at a discount to big players through OTC, scaring retail into handing over their tokens.
Whales holding cheap tokens have no incentive to pump the price.
3. If everyone sees the liquidation map, it’s not effective anymore.
61-62 and 57-58 have long risk, while 76-77 is the first short pressure level.
But if everyone is watching, will the big players act accordingly?
They might just suddenly pull back to 63-64 and trap those who are shorting. Consensus often turns into a trap.
My judgment:
Unlocking releases supply, retail is running, and whales are increasing. It seems healthy, but concentrated tokens don't guarantee a pump; without a new narrative, it’s just inventory.
Keep an eye on a few levels:
· If 67 can't hold, long liquidations around 61-62 and 57-58 are likely to happen.
· Don’t chase a volume-reduced rebound at 76-77; only consider accumulating if we break above 77 with volume.
· If we break 60, don’t fantasize about whales saving the day; they've already hedged in futures.