DaanCrypto
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Quick Thoughts on the remainder of this Year/Cycle 👇
Obviously I'll let the charts, trends and new information lead the way as we go and ideas can change. Just think the below makes sense as we speak.
My base case is a slowdown in Summer and a choppy environment for most markets. This does not mean we can't go higher. I just don't think we'll get the real craziness & blow off top or whatever until later in the year/cycle.
This would likely be paired with some correction and higher low on stocks. Trump clearly isn't willing to support markets at this level and his tone changed from when $SPX traded ~5000. He can just talk the markets up and down depending on where they trade. I also think the Fed isn't likely to do anything to support the markets until later in Q3/Q4. Maybe we look through it all anyways and just ignore the noise but it's safe to assume that at some point markets get spooked again by something and the Fed doesn't step in before that happens.
Possibly by then, something also has broken and we can start the money printing and QE stage which $BTC and crypto love so much. That should also help the overall risk on appetite towards alts.
I do think we will see some narrative emerge during the Summer regardless of the market environment. That's something you should focus on as those plays can very well be some bangers for the rest of the cycle.
In the past we had DeFi Summer, NFTs, Metaverse all the crazy runs have come around that time. Especially after BTC has had a big run the year(s) prior.
Then Q3 we can start the fun and last stage of this cycle into EOY.
And yes, I do still think the 4 year cycle has merit and is a decent guideline. Mainly because until now, it's the only thing that has proven to be true over all these years. I also think it matches up pretty well with the overall state of things macro wise. Although the latter is hard to predict.
Obviously I'll let the charts, trends and new information lead the way as we go and ideas can change. Just think the below makes sense as we speak.
My base case is a slowdown in Summer and a choppy environment for most markets. This does not mean we can't go higher. I just don't think we'll get the real craziness & blow off top or whatever until later in the year/cycle.
This would likely be paired with some correction and higher low on stocks. Trump clearly isn't willing to support markets at this level and his tone changed from when $SPX traded ~5000. He can just talk the markets up and down depending on where they trade. I also think the Fed isn't likely to do anything to support the markets until later in Q3/Q4. Maybe we look through it all anyways and just ignore the noise but it's safe to assume that at some point markets get spooked again by something and the Fed doesn't step in before that happens.
Possibly by then, something also has broken and we can start the money printing and QE stage which $BTC and crypto love so much. That should also help the overall risk on appetite towards alts.
I do think we will see some narrative emerge during the Summer regardless of the market environment. That's something you should focus on as those plays can very well be some bangers for the rest of the cycle.
In the past we had DeFi Summer, NFTs, Metaverse all the crazy runs have come around that time. Especially after BTC has had a big run the year(s) prior.
Then Q3 we can start the fun and last stage of this cycle into EOY.
And yes, I do still think the 4 year cycle has merit and is a decent guideline. Mainly because until now, it's the only thing that has proven to be true over all these years. I also think it matches up pretty well with the overall state of things macro wise. Although the latter is hard to predict.
Quick Thoughts on the remainder of this Year/Cycle 👇
Obviously I'll let the charts, trends and new information lead the way as we go and ideas can change. Just think the below makes sense as we speak.
My base case is a slowdown in Summer and a choppy environment for most markets. This does not mean we can't go higher. I just don't think we'll get the real craziness & blow off top or whatever until later in the year/cycle.
This would likely be paired with some correction and higher low on stocks. Trump clearly isn't willing to support markets at this level and his tone changed from when $SPX traded ~5000. He can just talk the markets up and down depending on where they trade. I also think the Fed isn't likely to do anything to support the markets later in Q3/Q4. Maybe we look through it all anyways and just ignore the noise but it's safe to assume that at some point markets get spooked again by something and the Fed doesn't step in before that happens.
Possibly by then, something also has broken and we can start the money printing and QE stage which $BTC and crypto love so much. That should also help the overall risk on appetite towards alts.
I do think we will see some narrative emerge during the Summer regardless of the market environment. That's something you should focus on as those plays can very well be some bangers for the rest of the cycle.
In the past we had DeFi Summer, NFTs, Metaverse all the crazy runs have come around that time. Especially after BTC has had a big run the year(s) prior.
Then Q3 we can start the fun and last stage of this cycle into EOY.
And yes, I do still think the 4 year cycle has merit and is a decent guideline. Mainly because until now, it's the only thing that has proven to be true over all these years. I also think it matches up pretty well with the overall state of things macro wise. Although the latter is hard to predict.
Obviously I'll let the charts, trends and new information lead the way as we go and ideas can change. Just think the below makes sense as we speak.
My base case is a slowdown in Summer and a choppy environment for most markets. This does not mean we can't go higher. I just don't think we'll get the real craziness & blow off top or whatever until later in the year/cycle.
This would likely be paired with some correction and higher low on stocks. Trump clearly isn't willing to support markets at this level and his tone changed from when $SPX traded ~5000. He can just talk the markets up and down depending on where they trade. I also think the Fed isn't likely to do anything to support the markets later in Q3/Q4. Maybe we look through it all anyways and just ignore the noise but it's safe to assume that at some point markets get spooked again by something and the Fed doesn't step in before that happens.
Possibly by then, something also has broken and we can start the money printing and QE stage which $BTC and crypto love so much. That should also help the overall risk on appetite towards alts.
I do think we will see some narrative emerge during the Summer regardless of the market environment. That's something you should focus on as those plays can very well be some bangers for the rest of the cycle.
In the past we had DeFi Summer, NFTs, Metaverse all the crazy runs have come around that time. Especially after BTC has had a big run the year(s) prior.
Then Q3 we can start the fun and last stage of this cycle into EOY.
And yes, I do still think the 4 year cycle has merit and is a decent guideline. Mainly because until now, it's the only thing that has proven to be true over all these years. I also think it matches up pretty well with the overall state of things macro wise. Although the latter is hard to predict.
$BTC $1B+ Open Interest ramp up in 3 hours during a weekend.
BTC has been strong lately but be careful when a lot of leverage is added during weekends.
BTC has been strong lately but be careful when a lot of leverage is added during weekends.
While $BTC made new highs, we can see how the $TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap is still nowhere close.
Even though it has bounced and taken back some previous losses, it's still 30%+ away from reaching those all time highs (which are still from 2021).
The key horizontal level on the chart is what needs to be broken for alts to play some catch up with BTC. But overall, the BTC trend is just much stronger as it has been all cycle.
Even though it has bounced and taken back some previous losses, it's still 30%+ away from reaching those all time highs (which are still from 2021).
The key horizontal level on the chart is what needs to be broken for alts to play some catch up with BTC. But overall, the BTC trend is just much stronger as it has been all cycle.
While $BTC made new highs, we can see how the $TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap is still nowhere close.
Even though it has bounced and taken back some previous losses, it's still 30%+ away from reaching those all time highs (which are still from 2021).
The key horizontal level on the chart is what needs to be broken for alts to play some catch up with BTC. But overall, the BTC trend is just much stronger as it has been all cycle.
Even though it has bounced and taken back some previous losses, it's still 30%+ away from reaching those all time highs (which are still from 2021).
The key horizontal level on the chart is what needs to be broken for alts to play some catch up with BTC. But overall, the BTC trend is just much stronger as it has been all cycle.
It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.
If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.
These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.
Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.
$BTC relative to Stocks trading back at the all time highs.
We saw a strong outperformance since the liberation day uncertainty.
Then we saw stocks outperform for a week or so since the US-China Trade "Deal" as uncertainty was removed from the market. Since then, BTC took the lead back.
Will keep monitoring the ratio. The higher this holds, the more bullish it is for BTC.
We saw a strong outperformance since the liberation day uncertainty.
Then we saw stocks outperform for a week or so since the US-China Trade "Deal" as uncertainty was removed from the market. Since then, BTC took the lead back.
Will keep monitoring the ratio. The higher this holds, the more bullish it is for BTC.
Can't recall a time in history where $BTC just casually traded around in a 1% range at all time highs.
Bigger move following once it breaks this local tiny range. Quite a lot of positions being build up on both sides.
Bigger move following once it breaks this local tiny range. Quite a lot of positions being build up on both sides.
$ETH Has been chopping around the 2400-2600 region since the big squeeze higher.
Although $BTC is strong and has made a new all time high, ETH is lagging behind again on this most recent move.
This has caused the ETH/BTC ratio to cool off a bit as well.
My levels of interest are market on the chart. The <2500 area has been defended well so far but we've not seen a strong follow up yet.
Above 2850 and below 2100 are key areas.
Although $BTC is strong and has made a new all time high, ETH is lagging behind again on this most recent move.
This has caused the ETH/BTC ratio to cool off a bit as well.
My levels of interest are market on the chart. The <2500 area has been defended well so far but we've not seen a strong follow up yet.
Above 2850 and below 2100 are key areas.
$BTC Arrived at its range & all time high area.
This is resistance until it's not. Generally not where you want to be adding on crazy amounts of risk until a proper breakout is confirmed. A daily close would be a good start.
This is resistance until it's not. Generally not where you want to be adding on crazy amounts of risk until a proper breakout is confirmed. A daily close would be a good start.
The $SPX bounce has been pretty insane, recovering back to its yearly open and is now green since Liberation day.
Although I've been loving this bounce after buying into tech stocks during the first week of April (shared on here), the sheer pace of this bounce is what makes me a little cautious. This recovery, although a smaller move, has only taken about a month. Compared to for example 3 months after the covid crash which was paired with massive stimulus. Something we don't have (yet).
I did scale out a good bunch of profits after most of the buys have been up 30-50% in the matter of weeks. Generally you expect those returns over 1-3 years on average. Not 4 weeks. So happy to scale out in that regard and have some cash on the side.
As for $BTC, it has been strong during the tariff drama but has kinda stalled against $SPX since the US/China "deal" was made. I would assume some higher low being created does put some pressure on BTC as well. If stocks go down and BTC holds up well then that'd be incredibly bullish but I think this mostly comes down to the pace of the sell off (when it comes).
Anyways, we'll see what we get. I think we've gone from sentiment expecting a 1929 depression repeat to a lot of good news being baked in now, within a 1 month time span. Expecting summer to be mostly choppy and don't like the risk/reward on equities much in the short/mid term.
If we get 5250 or 5500 I'll start slowly scaling back in exposure. For now I'm happy yielding 4-5% on the cash while I wait out what the market does next.
Although I've been loving this bounce after buying into tech stocks during the first week of April (shared on here), the sheer pace of this bounce is what makes me a little cautious. This recovery, although a smaller move, has only taken about a month. Compared to for example 3 months after the covid crash which was paired with massive stimulus. Something we don't have (yet).
I did scale out a good bunch of profits after most of the buys have been up 30-50% in the matter of weeks. Generally you expect those returns over 1-3 years on average. Not 4 weeks. So happy to scale out in that regard and have some cash on the side.
As for $BTC, it has been strong during the tariff drama but has kinda stalled against $SPX since the US/China "deal" was made. I would assume some higher low being created does put some pressure on BTC as well. If stocks go down and BTC holds up well then that'd be incredibly bullish but I think this mostly comes down to the pace of the sell off (when it comes).
Anyways, we'll see what we get. I think we've gone from sentiment expecting a 1929 depression repeat to a lot of good news being baked in now, within a 1 month time span. Expecting summer to be mostly choppy and don't like the risk/reward on equities much in the short/mid term.
If we get 5250 or 5500 I'll start slowly scaling back in exposure. For now I'm happy yielding 4-5% on the cash while I wait out what the market does next.
Most of $BTC's returns this month have come during the US & EU trading sessions.
Meanwhile, the Asia session has been rather bearish and has been flat over the month and negative during the last week.
Meanwhile, the Asia session has been rather bearish and has been flat over the month and negative during the last week.
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