10xResearch
Επαληθευμένος δημιουργός
Actionable Market Insights. Make Smarter Decisions Faster – Subscribe and Access Expert Insights on Digital Assets and Financial Markets. www.10xResearch.com
2 Ακολούθηση
72.5K+ Ακόλουθοι
2.3K+ Μου αρέσει
285 Κοινοποιήσεις
Όλες
Παραθέσεις
Βίντεο
PINNED
Bitcoin’s BIG Consolidation Won’t Last Forever.
Actionable Market Insights
The report below focuses on Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook.
Bitcoin’s performance isn’t driven by cycles—it’s driven by how much new capital enters the market to offset those exiting. Unlike gold, Bitcoin’s price is less about interest-rate expectations and more about net new demand actually flowing into the asset. Monitoring the balance between Bitcoin’s demand and supply dynamics provides a powerful edge in forecasting where the market heads next.
Two dominant crypto themes are currently shaping the market narrative—and we’ve been ahead of both since early summer. The two key themes are that Digital Asset Treasury companies are exhausting their buying power, while selling pressure from legacy holders is temporarily capping Bitcoin’s upside.
We anticipated that Bitcoin’s volatility would contract as the momentum from the U.S. GENIUS Act faded, leaving the market in an “air pocket” during Congress’s summer recess. This slowdown in news flow was expected to dampen volatility, deflate the net asset value of Bitcoin treasury companies, and restrict firms like MicroStrategy from pursuing aggressive share placements and additional Bitcoin purchases—creating a natural cap on Bitcoin’s upside. Our forecast of a sharp rerating in MicroStrategy relative to Bitcoin has now materialized, with its NAV compressing to just 1.2x.
See our reports “Has MicroStrategy Lost Its Convexity Edge Over Bitcoin?” (July 19, 2025), “What Happens When MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Yield Hits a Wall?” (July 25, 2025), “Are Hedge Funds Targeting MicroStrategy as Its Largest Holder Trims? And What’s the Trade?” (August 2025), and “Could Bitcoin/Ethereum Treasuries’ NAV Flip Negative?” (August 20, 2025).
Each of these analyses was published when Digital Asset Treasury companies were still seen as untouchable, celebrated by service-provider research teams and amplified by the media, long before the market began to recognize the vulnerabilities we had already identified. Instead of deploying billions, MicroStrategy is now purchasing only tens of millions—an amount too small to convince investors that fresh capital is driving Bitcoin’s next leg higher.
The second narrative currently capping Bitcoin’s upside is the realization that legacy wallets are offloading billions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin—effectively selling into ETF demand. We identified this dynamic early in our June 20, 2025 report “Who’s Actually Impacting the Bitcoin Price?”, followed by “How Smart Money Is Quietly Capping Bitcoin’s Upside – And What Traders Must Do” (June 26, 2025) and “Why $8.6B in Dormant Bitcoin Just Moved—What It Means and How to Trade It” (July 5, 2025). It took time for the market to catch up to this narrative, but eventually the promoters ran out of bullish arguments to keep it alive.
Since June, our analysis showed that these legacy holders were selling only as much as ETFs and new entrants could absorb, preventing a market collapse but creating a new equilibrium. In this environment, Bitcoin’s volatility was bound to decline—and the optimal strategy was to sell volatility, as prices were likely to remain range-bound.
Until recently, selling volatility had been among the most profitable strategies in recent months. Despite the leverage-driven flash crash, Bitcoin remains roughly mid-range around $110,000. While legacy wallet distribution may eventually subside, and assuming ETF and institutional demand stays supportive, prices could still recover and trend higher. Below, we outline when the inflow impulse stalled and how long the current supply overhang could persist. Understanding these dynamics helps build a roadmap for when Bitcoin is likely to resume its next leg higher. As we explain below:
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-s-big-consolidation-won-t-last-forever
The report below focuses on Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook.
Bitcoin’s performance isn’t driven by cycles—it’s driven by how much new capital enters the market to offset those exiting. Unlike gold, Bitcoin’s price is less about interest-rate expectations and more about net new demand actually flowing into the asset. Monitoring the balance between Bitcoin’s demand and supply dynamics provides a powerful edge in forecasting where the market heads next.
Two dominant crypto themes are currently shaping the market narrative—and we’ve been ahead of both since early summer. The two key themes are that Digital Asset Treasury companies are exhausting their buying power, while selling pressure from legacy holders is temporarily capping Bitcoin’s upside.
We anticipated that Bitcoin’s volatility would contract as the momentum from the U.S. GENIUS Act faded, leaving the market in an “air pocket” during Congress’s summer recess. This slowdown in news flow was expected to dampen volatility, deflate the net asset value of Bitcoin treasury companies, and restrict firms like MicroStrategy from pursuing aggressive share placements and additional Bitcoin purchases—creating a natural cap on Bitcoin’s upside. Our forecast of a sharp rerating in MicroStrategy relative to Bitcoin has now materialized, with its NAV compressing to just 1.2x.
See our reports “Has MicroStrategy Lost Its Convexity Edge Over Bitcoin?” (July 19, 2025), “What Happens When MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Yield Hits a Wall?” (July 25, 2025), “Are Hedge Funds Targeting MicroStrategy as Its Largest Holder Trims? And What’s the Trade?” (August 2025), and “Could Bitcoin/Ethereum Treasuries’ NAV Flip Negative?” (August 20, 2025).
Each of these analyses was published when Digital Asset Treasury companies were still seen as untouchable, celebrated by service-provider research teams and amplified by the media, long before the market began to recognize the vulnerabilities we had already identified. Instead of deploying billions, MicroStrategy is now purchasing only tens of millions—an amount too small to convince investors that fresh capital is driving Bitcoin’s next leg higher.
The second narrative currently capping Bitcoin’s upside is the realization that legacy wallets are offloading billions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin—effectively selling into ETF demand. We identified this dynamic early in our June 20, 2025 report “Who’s Actually Impacting the Bitcoin Price?”, followed by “How Smart Money Is Quietly Capping Bitcoin’s Upside – And What Traders Must Do” (June 26, 2025) and “Why $8.6B in Dormant Bitcoin Just Moved—What It Means and How to Trade It” (July 5, 2025). It took time for the market to catch up to this narrative, but eventually the promoters ran out of bullish arguments to keep it alive.
Since June, our analysis showed that these legacy holders were selling only as much as ETFs and new entrants could absorb, preventing a market collapse but creating a new equilibrium. In this environment, Bitcoin’s volatility was bound to decline—and the optimal strategy was to sell volatility, as prices were likely to remain range-bound.
Until recently, selling volatility had been among the most profitable strategies in recent months. Despite the leverage-driven flash crash, Bitcoin remains roughly mid-range around $110,000. While legacy wallet distribution may eventually subside, and assuming ETF and institutional demand stays supportive, prices could still recover and trend higher. Below, we outline when the inflow impulse stalled and how long the current supply overhang could persist. Understanding these dynamics helps build a roadmap for when Bitcoin is likely to resume its next leg higher. As we explain below:
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-s-big-consolidation-won-t-last-forever
Bitcoin: Everyone Sees Consolidation — Few See the Ice Wall Cracking
Bitcoin looks calm on the surface — but the data says something very different.
Beneath this sideways price action, long-term holders are quietly distributing while institutional flows hesitate, creating a fragile balance that rarely lasts.
A slight shift in ETF demand, dollar strength, or Fed tone could determine whether this resolves into a squeeze higher or a break lower — and right now, both forces are colliding at a critical level.
The on-chain signals that usually move at glacier speed have started to change direction, hinting at a deeper structural turn.
Most investors are watching headlines; the smart money is watching the threshold Bitcoin can’t afford to lose.
At first glance, Bitcoin looks quiet — almost stuck.
But beneath the surface, a massive handover is taking place: early adopters distributing, new capital absorbing, with flows nearly balanced enough to suppress volatility.
When one side finally steps back, the imbalance could trigger a decisive move.
While many newer Bitcoin holders, those who entered this cycle or the last, advocate simple buy-and-hold strategies or dollar-cost averaging, the true veterans operate differently.
The professionals who have survived multiple cycles don’t rely on slogans; they follow the on-chain signals.
And those signals are shifting in ways that should not be ignored — as we outline in our report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-everyone-sees-consolidation-few-see-the-ice-wall-cracking
Bitcoin looks calm on the surface — but the data says something very different.
Beneath this sideways price action, long-term holders are quietly distributing while institutional flows hesitate, creating a fragile balance that rarely lasts.
A slight shift in ETF demand, dollar strength, or Fed tone could determine whether this resolves into a squeeze higher or a break lower — and right now, both forces are colliding at a critical level.
The on-chain signals that usually move at glacier speed have started to change direction, hinting at a deeper structural turn.
Most investors are watching headlines; the smart money is watching the threshold Bitcoin can’t afford to lose.
At first glance, Bitcoin looks quiet — almost stuck.
But beneath the surface, a massive handover is taking place: early adopters distributing, new capital absorbing, with flows nearly balanced enough to suppress volatility.
When one side finally steps back, the imbalance could trigger a decisive move.
While many newer Bitcoin holders, those who entered this cycle or the last, advocate simple buy-and-hold strategies or dollar-cost averaging, the true veterans operate differently.
The professionals who have survived multiple cycles don’t rely on slogans; they follow the on-chain signals.
And those signals are shifting in ways that should not be ignored — as we outline in our report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-everyone-sees-consolidation-few-see-the-ice-wall-cracking
$18 Billion Was Lost in MicroStrategy — Now the Next Wave of Winners Is Positioning. Here's What They're Seeing.
For months, the market decided @MicroStrategy was finished — a broken Bitcoin proxy with no catalysts and an exhausted playbook.
Yet beneath the capitulation, something shifted, and catalysts are approaching, with one just days away.
A setup like this doesn’t appear often — and when it does, it rarely looks bullish at first glance.
The last time sentiment looked this washed-out, the stock went on a multi-month tear.
Now, another inflection point is approaching — but this time, the payoff profile looks very different.
We turned bearish on MicroStrategy in May 2025 (here, here, here).
We repeatedly highlighted that shares were likely to fall from ~$400 to $330 and potentially to $300, driven by declining Bitcoin volatility and a normalization of the company’s net asset value premium (NAV).
Despite this, many sell-side analysts continued to extrapolate upside, with the highest price target at $705 and the average near $552. Even today, 9 of 14 analysts still expect nearly 100% upside.
Naturally, these price targets will eventually need to be revised lower for credibility and optics.
While the consensus narrative assumed MicroStrategy could continue raising capital indefinitely through equity and convertible bond issuance, that ability is highly dependent on elevated volatility and strong market sentiment — conditions that faded into the summer.
If you want to learn how to make money with MicroStrategy, this report is for you.
Something big is about to shift for MicroStrategy: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/18-billion-was-lost-in-microstrategy-now-the-next-wave-of-winners-is-positioning-here-s-what-they-re
For months, the market decided @MicroStrategy was finished — a broken Bitcoin proxy with no catalysts and an exhausted playbook.
Yet beneath the capitulation, something shifted, and catalysts are approaching, with one just days away.
A setup like this doesn’t appear often — and when it does, it rarely looks bullish at first glance.
The last time sentiment looked this washed-out, the stock went on a multi-month tear.
Now, another inflection point is approaching — but this time, the payoff profile looks very different.
We turned bearish on MicroStrategy in May 2025 (here, here, here).
We repeatedly highlighted that shares were likely to fall from ~$400 to $330 and potentially to $300, driven by declining Bitcoin volatility and a normalization of the company’s net asset value premium (NAV).
Despite this, many sell-side analysts continued to extrapolate upside, with the highest price target at $705 and the average near $552. Even today, 9 of 14 analysts still expect nearly 100% upside.
Naturally, these price targets will eventually need to be revised lower for credibility and optics.
While the consensus narrative assumed MicroStrategy could continue raising capital indefinitely through equity and convertible bond issuance, that ability is highly dependent on elevated volatility and strong market sentiment — conditions that faded into the summer.
If you want to learn how to make money with MicroStrategy, this report is for you.
Something big is about to shift for MicroStrategy: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/18-billion-was-lost-in-microstrategy-now-the-next-wave-of-winners-is-positioning-here-s-what-they-re
Is Bitcoin Now Too Expensive for Retail — and Could It Break the Cycle?
Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns.
While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.
Although the Bitcoin network offers abundant, fascinating data, drawing firm statistical conclusions from just three or four cycles is highly questionable.
As we highlighted in our May 10, 2024, report (here), the once-popular stock-to-flow model has long lost credibility after failing to track prices accurately in 2021 — a flaw stemming from an excessive focus on supply while ignoring Bitcoin’s demand-driven nature.
Nonetheless, we used a modified version of that model to forecast the bear-market bottom in October 2022 correctly.
Bitcoin closely followed the stock-to-flow model’s projections until the 2021 bull market, when the model predicted a surge above $100,000—a target widely echoed by leading commentators at the time.
This same logic now fuels talk of $1 million price targets for the current cycle, as the model would imply.
Using a different methodology, we once projected this cycle could push Bitcoin toward $125,000 (see July 2023) —but our understanding of Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics has evolved significantly since then.
Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/is-bitcoin-now-too-expensive-for-retail-and-could-it-break-the-cycle
Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns.
While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.
Although the Bitcoin network offers abundant, fascinating data, drawing firm statistical conclusions from just three or four cycles is highly questionable.
As we highlighted in our May 10, 2024, report (here), the once-popular stock-to-flow model has long lost credibility after failing to track prices accurately in 2021 — a flaw stemming from an excessive focus on supply while ignoring Bitcoin’s demand-driven nature.
Nonetheless, we used a modified version of that model to forecast the bear-market bottom in October 2022 correctly.
Bitcoin closely followed the stock-to-flow model’s projections until the 2021 bull market, when the model predicted a surge above $100,000—a target widely echoed by leading commentators at the time.
This same logic now fuels talk of $1 million price targets for the current cycle, as the model would imply.
Using a different methodology, we once projected this cycle could push Bitcoin toward $125,000 (see July 2023) —but our understanding of Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics has evolved significantly since then.
Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/is-bitcoin-now-too-expensive-for-retail-and-could-it-break-the-cycle
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Options Market Turns Neutral as Leverage Builds for Upside
The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges for the next 1–2 weeks, and key upcoming market catalysts.
Why this report matters
The crypto market is steadily recovering from the October 10 crash, with our top post-crash altcoin pick (see October 13 report) up by 20% and likely to extend gains, as BTC and ETH skews show that derivatives markets have priced out most near-term risk.
Funding rates point to renewed upside leverage, while ETF inflows will be critical this week to sustain momentum—just as our technical indicators (see October 24 report) anticipated.
Roughly 35% of U.S. market-cap companies (175 out of 500) will report earnings this week, with Wednesday’s releases and the FOMC meeting as key catalysts.
The better-than-expected inflation data from last Friday support a continued disinflation trend. In contrast, implied volatility, our core call in last week’s Kickoff report, has indeed dropped sharply as options traders removed downside hedges.
On-chain data remains somewhat bearish, but with tactical drivers in control, we continue to trade opportunistically in this environment.
Main data points
Crypto markets grind higher on lower volumes: The Crypto market cap stands at $3.83 trillion, 4.1% higher than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $153 billion, -31% below average.
Weekly Bitcoin volume was $56.3 billion, -30% below average, while Ethereum volume was $35.5 billion, -31% below average. Ethereum network fees (0.1 Gwei) are in the 5th percentile, indicating low network usage.
Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-the-option-market-is-no-longer-bearish-leveraged-traders-position-for-upsi
Why this report matters
The crypto market is steadily recovering from the October 10 crash, with our top post-crash altcoin pick (see October 13 report) up by 20% and likely to extend gains, as BTC and ETH skews show that derivatives markets have priced out most near-term risk.
Funding rates point to renewed upside leverage, while ETF inflows will be critical this week to sustain momentum—just as our technical indicators (see October 24 report) anticipated.
Roughly 35% of U.S. market-cap companies (175 out of 500) will report earnings this week, with Wednesday’s releases and the FOMC meeting as key catalysts.
The better-than-expected inflation data from last Friday support a continued disinflation trend. In contrast, implied volatility, our core call in last week’s Kickoff report, has indeed dropped sharply as options traders removed downside hedges.
On-chain data remains somewhat bearish, but with tactical drivers in control, we continue to trade opportunistically in this environment.
Main data points
Crypto markets grind higher on lower volumes: The Crypto market cap stands at $3.83 trillion, 4.1% higher than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $153 billion, -31% below average.
Weekly Bitcoin volume was $56.3 billion, -30% below average, while Ethereum volume was $35.5 billion, -31% below average. Ethereum network fees (0.1 Gwei) are in the 5th percentile, indicating low network usage.
Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-the-option-market-is-no-longer-bearish-leveraged-traders-position-for-upsi
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Options Market Turns Neutral as Leverage Builds for Upside
The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges for the next 1–2 weeks, and key upcoming market catalysts.
Why this report matters
The crypto market is steadily recovering from the October 10 crash, with our top post-crash altcoin pick (see October 13 report) up by 20% and likely to extend gains, as BTC and ETH skews show that derivatives markets have priced out most near-term risk.
Funding rates point to renewed upside leverage, while ETF inflows will be critical this week to sustain momentum—just as our technical indicators (see October 24 report) anticipated.
Roughly 35% of U.S. market-cap companies (175 out of 500) will report earnings this week, with Wednesday’s releases and the FOMC meeting as key catalysts.
The better-than-expected inflation data from last Friday support a continued disinflation trend. In contrast, implied volatility, our core call in last week’s Kickoff report, has indeed dropped sharply as options traders removed downside hedges.
On-chain data remains somewhat bearish, but with tactical drivers in control, we continue to trade opportunistically in this environment.
Main data points
Crypto markets grind higher on lower volumes: The Crypto market cap stands at $3.83 trillion, 4.1% higher than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $153 billion, -31% below average.
Weekly Bitcoin volume was $56.3 billion, -30% below average, while Ethereum volume was $35.5 billion, -31% below average. Ethereum network fees (0.1 Gwei) are in the 5th percentile, indicating low network usage.
Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-the-option-market-is-no-longer-bearish-leveraged-traders-position-for-upsi
The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges for the next 1–2 weeks, and key upcoming market catalysts.
Why this report matters
The crypto market is steadily recovering from the October 10 crash, with our top post-crash altcoin pick (see October 13 report) up by 20% and likely to extend gains, as BTC and ETH skews show that derivatives markets have priced out most near-term risk.
Funding rates point to renewed upside leverage, while ETF inflows will be critical this week to sustain momentum—just as our technical indicators (see October 24 report) anticipated.
Roughly 35% of U.S. market-cap companies (175 out of 500) will report earnings this week, with Wednesday’s releases and the FOMC meeting as key catalysts.
The better-than-expected inflation data from last Friday support a continued disinflation trend. In contrast, implied volatility, our core call in last week’s Kickoff report, has indeed dropped sharply as options traders removed downside hedges.
On-chain data remains somewhat bearish, but with tactical drivers in control, we continue to trade opportunistically in this environment.
Main data points
Crypto markets grind higher on lower volumes: The Crypto market cap stands at $3.83 trillion, 4.1% higher than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $153 billion, -31% below average.
Weekly Bitcoin volume was $56.3 billion, -30% below average, while Ethereum volume was $35.5 billion, -31% below average. Ethereum network fees (0.1 Gwei) are in the 5th percentile, indicating low network usage.
Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-the-option-market-is-no-longer-bearish-leveraged-traders-position-for-upsi
This Week’s Insights for Traders - October 26
MARKET UPDATES
Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute - October 26: Cooling inflation and strong corporate earnings fueled optimism across risk assets, with Bitcoin rebounding alongside equity markets led by AI-driven tech stocks. Softer inflation data pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower, while gold retreated as investors took profits. In digital-asset treasuries, MicroStrategy’s growth concerns contrasted with renewed institutional enthusiasm for Metaplanet, Bitmine, and Galaxy Digital. Bitcoin miners gained traction from AI-infrastructure pivots and institutional inflows, led by TeraWulf, CleanSpark, and Iren. Among major tokens, Solana, Jupiter, and Virtuals outperformed on ecosystem growth, while Tron and Ethena showed mixed sentiment amid DeFi rotation. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-one-liners-what-s-driving-the-market-in-a-minute-october-26
Crypto Retail Traders Missed Out on $800 Billion — and It Might Be Forever - October 24: Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by an astonishing $800 billion this cycle — and retail investors are the ones left behind. While social media continues to promise the next “alt season,” the data tells a different story. Our models show a decisive rotation back into Bitcoin, even as Korean retail traders, once the heart of altcoin speculation, shift their focus to U.S. crypto stocks. Liquidity, momentum, and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet. Meanwhile, institutions are shaping this cycle in ways few expected — and retail may not yet realize what that means. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-retail-traders-missed-out-on-800-billion-and-it-might-be-forever
Bear Market Watch: What Smart Money Is Seeing in Bitcoin’s Data - October 22: Bitcoin’s rally has stalled. Beneath the surface, key on-chain and derivatives signals that once fueled momentum are now fading. Institutional players are quietly tightening risk while retail traders remain trapped in breakeven limbo. Our proprietary models show this phase could determine whether the market resets—or reignites. Even with supportive macro trends and a strong equity backdrop, the data tells a different story. The real question now: are we witnessing another routine correction—or the first signs of a deeper turn? https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bear-market-watch-what-smart-money-is-seeing-in-bitcoin-s-data
Bitcoin’s BIG Consolidation Won’t Last Forever. October 21 - Bitcoin’s performance isn’t driven by cycles—it’s driven by how much new capital enters the market to offset those exiting. Unlike gold, Bitcoin’s price is less about interest-rate expectations and more about net new demand actually flowing into the asset. Monitoring the balance between Bitcoin’s demand and supply dynamics provides a powerful edge in forecasting where the market heads next. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-s-big-consolidation-won-t-last-forever
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – $1.5 billion in Crypto ETF outflows and traders paying up for protection. - October 20 - Bitcoin’s sharp pullback has shaken leveraged traders, but derivatives markets are quietly revealing a more complex story beneath the surface. Funding rates have reset, volatility has spiked, and option traders are positioning for something bigger than just a short-term bounce. Ethereum, meanwhile, exhibits a curious divergence—its skew has shifted more bearish at the front end, even as long-term traders continue to buy calls. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-1-5-billion-in-crypto-etf-outflows-and-traders-paying-up-for-protection
TRADING SIGNALS
Crypto Trends Chart Book: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why - October 26 - https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-trends-chart-book-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-be9c
10x Derivatives Edge: BTC & ETH Volatility/Options Analysis - October 23 - Traders are bracing for short-term turbulence across Bitcoin and Ethereum, with option markets signaling caution but not yet capitulation. Volatility curves have steepened at the front end, indicating a demand for near-term protection, even as longer-term expectations remain anchored. Skews have flipped sharply bearish after October’s liquidation, highlighting an uptick in put demand and hedging activity. While Bitcoin’s implied volatility still trades above realized—rewarding option sellers—Ethereum’s has dropped below realized, making its options cheap to buy. https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/10x-derivatives-edge-btc-eth-volatility-options-analysis-cfe5
10x Derivatives Edge: Smart Options Plays - October 22 - Trades: Selling puts ahead of major macro events—such as key data releases or rate decisions—can be tough to hold with confidence, even when put skew looks extreme. However, as the recent volatility data shows, the upside wing vols have also risen sharply—a move not fully reflected in traditional put-call skew metrics, but clearly visible in the ATM and call-vol levels. When this is combined with an inverted term structure, the setup becomes particularly interesting. https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/10x-derivatives-edge-smart-options-plays-0f41
TRADING STRATEGY
Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why. - October 24 - Bitcoin miners have quietly become some of the best-performing assets in crypto — and the gap versus Bitcoin itself has never been wider. The 10x Research BTC Mining Index has outperformed Bitcoin by more than fivefold, while several miners are pivoting into AI and high-performance computing, rewriting their investment narratives. https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-stocks-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-1b95
Ethereum Chart Book - Most Important Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts - October 24 - Multiple technical and on-chain indicators, once supportive, are now turning decisively lower. Short-term momentum has weakened, key moving averages have flipped to resistance, and even long-term trend gauges are starting to shift. While some monthly signals remain constructive, the balance of evidence points to a market entering a vulnerable phase. https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/ethereum-chart-book-most-important-daily-weekly-monthly-charts-e533
Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? A Deep Dive into Key On-Chain and Market Indicators - October 22 -
Bitcoin’s latest price action shows growing signs of cyclical fatigue as several on-chain and market-structure indicators align toward a potential transition from bull phase to consolidation—or even early bear territory. The Realized-to-Market Cap ratio, a long-term liquidity gauge, has begun to decelerate year-on-year, confirming that fresh capital inflows are weakening. https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/is-bitcoin-entering-a-bear-market-a-deep-dive-into-key-on-chain-and-market-indicators
Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute - October 26: Cooling inflation and strong corporate earnings fueled optimism across risk assets, with Bitcoin rebounding alongside equity markets led by AI-driven tech stocks. Softer inflation data pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower, while gold retreated as investors took profits. In digital-asset treasuries, MicroStrategy’s growth concerns contrasted with renewed institutional enthusiasm for Metaplanet, Bitmine, and Galaxy Digital. Bitcoin miners gained traction from AI-infrastructure pivots and institutional inflows, led by TeraWulf, CleanSpark, and Iren. Among major tokens, Solana, Jupiter, and Virtuals outperformed on ecosystem growth, while Tron and Ethena showed mixed sentiment amid DeFi rotation. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-one-liners-what-s-driving-the-market-in-a-minute-october-26
Crypto Retail Traders Missed Out on $800 Billion — and It Might Be Forever - October 24: Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by an astonishing $800 billion this cycle — and retail investors are the ones left behind. While social media continues to promise the next “alt season,” the data tells a different story. Our models show a decisive rotation back into Bitcoin, even as Korean retail traders, once the heart of altcoin speculation, shift their focus to U.S. crypto stocks. Liquidity, momentum, and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet. Meanwhile, institutions are shaping this cycle in ways few expected — and retail may not yet realize what that means. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-retail-traders-missed-out-on-800-billion-and-it-might-be-forever
Bear Market Watch: What Smart Money Is Seeing in Bitcoin’s Data - October 22: Bitcoin’s rally has stalled. Beneath the surface, key on-chain and derivatives signals that once fueled momentum are now fading. Institutional players are quietly tightening risk while retail traders remain trapped in breakeven limbo. Our proprietary models show this phase could determine whether the market resets—or reignites. Even with supportive macro trends and a strong equity backdrop, the data tells a different story. The real question now: are we witnessing another routine correction—or the first signs of a deeper turn? https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bear-market-watch-what-smart-money-is-seeing-in-bitcoin-s-data
Bitcoin’s BIG Consolidation Won’t Last Forever. October 21 - Bitcoin’s performance isn’t driven by cycles—it’s driven by how much new capital enters the market to offset those exiting. Unlike gold, Bitcoin’s price is less about interest-rate expectations and more about net new demand actually flowing into the asset. Monitoring the balance between Bitcoin’s demand and supply dynamics provides a powerful edge in forecasting where the market heads next. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-s-big-consolidation-won-t-last-forever
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – $1.5 billion in Crypto ETF outflows and traders paying up for protection. - October 20 - Bitcoin’s sharp pullback has shaken leveraged traders, but derivatives markets are quietly revealing a more complex story beneath the surface. Funding rates have reset, volatility has spiked, and option traders are positioning for something bigger than just a short-term bounce. Ethereum, meanwhile, exhibits a curious divergence—its skew has shifted more bearish at the front end, even as long-term traders continue to buy calls. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-1-5-billion-in-crypto-etf-outflows-and-traders-paying-up-for-protection
TRADING SIGNALS
Crypto Trends Chart Book: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why - October 26 - https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-trends-chart-book-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-be9c
10x Derivatives Edge: BTC & ETH Volatility/Options Analysis - October 23 - Traders are bracing for short-term turbulence across Bitcoin and Ethereum, with option markets signaling caution but not yet capitulation. Volatility curves have steepened at the front end, indicating a demand for near-term protection, even as longer-term expectations remain anchored. Skews have flipped sharply bearish after October’s liquidation, highlighting an uptick in put demand and hedging activity. While Bitcoin’s implied volatility still trades above realized—rewarding option sellers—Ethereum’s has dropped below realized, making its options cheap to buy. https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/10x-derivatives-edge-btc-eth-volatility-options-analysis-cfe5
10x Derivatives Edge: Smart Options Plays - October 22 - Trades: Selling puts ahead of major macro events—such as key data releases or rate decisions—can be tough to hold with confidence, even when put skew looks extreme. However, as the recent volatility data shows, the upside wing vols have also risen sharply—a move not fully reflected in traditional put-call skew metrics, but clearly visible in the ATM and call-vol levels. When this is combined with an inverted term structure, the setup becomes particularly interesting. https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/10x-derivatives-edge-smart-options-plays-0f41
TRADING STRATEGY
Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why. - October 24 - Bitcoin miners have quietly become some of the best-performing assets in crypto — and the gap versus Bitcoin itself has never been wider. The 10x Research BTC Mining Index has outperformed Bitcoin by more than fivefold, while several miners are pivoting into AI and high-performance computing, rewriting their investment narratives. https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-stocks-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-1b95
Ethereum Chart Book - Most Important Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts - October 24 - Multiple technical and on-chain indicators, once supportive, are now turning decisively lower. Short-term momentum has weakened, key moving averages have flipped to resistance, and even long-term trend gauges are starting to shift. While some monthly signals remain constructive, the balance of evidence points to a market entering a vulnerable phase. https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/ethereum-chart-book-most-important-daily-weekly-monthly-charts-e533
Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? A Deep Dive into Key On-Chain and Market Indicators - October 22 -
Bitcoin’s latest price action shows growing signs of cyclical fatigue as several on-chain and market-structure indicators align toward a potential transition from bull phase to consolidation—or even early bear territory. The Realized-to-Market Cap ratio, a long-term liquidity gauge, has begun to decelerate year-on-year, confirming that fresh capital inflows are weakening. https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/is-bitcoin-entering-a-bear-market-a-deep-dive-into-key-on-chain-and-market-indicators
Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute - October 26
MACRO
🔷Bitcoin: Bitcoin rebounded on cooling inflation & ETF inflows, but traders remain cautiously optimistic.
🔷S&P 500: Strong corporate earnings from GM and Apple drove major index gains, offsetting weakness in select industrials.
🔷Nasdaq: AI-linked tech stocks like Nvidia and Alphabet powered Nasdaq strength despite weakness in software names.
🔷Dollar Index: The dollar edged lower on soft inflation & strong euro data, while yen and sentiment shifts capped gains.
🔷Gold: Gold pulled back as investors took profits following its safe-haven rally.
🔷 Treasury Yields: Yields dipped as softer inflation data fueled Fed-cut expectations and strong bond demand stabilized markets.
DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY/DIVERSIFIED CRYPTO
✅MicroStrategy: MicroStrategy’s slowing Bitcoin purchases and NAV compression raised concerns over growth momentum.
✅Metaplanet: Renewed optimism & undervaluation drove a rebound as leadership reaffirmed institutional Bitcoin adoption.
✅Bit Digital: Expanded ETH holdings and a $100 million note issue reinforced its AI-infrastructure pivot despite regulatory scrutiny.
✅Bitmine Immersion: Aggressive ETH accumulation lifted its status as a major Ethereum treasury player.
✅Sharplink Gaming: Strategic hires and bullish analyst coverage reignited optimism over its Ethereum treasury strategy.
✅Galaxy Digital: Record earnings and infrastructure expansion fueled confidence in its diversified digital-asset business.
✅Coinbase: Analyst upgrades and Base chain optimism lifted shares ahead of Q3 earnings.
✅Robinhood: Rapid user and crypto-trading growth attracted institutional interest and price-target hikes.
✅Circle: Upgrades and USDC growth pushed shares higher amid rising tokenization enthusiasm.
BITCOIN MINERS
🌀Marathon Digital: Additional BTC purchases spotlighted its treasury strategy but sector weakness weighed on performance.
🌀Riot Platforms: Institutional inflows boosted sentiment despite broader crypto-equity volatility.
🌀Bitfarms: Institutional stake from Jane Street and AI-data-center expansion bolstered investor confidence.
🌀Bitdeer Technologies: Strong mining output & AI-pivot plans drew analyst upgrades and investor attention.
🌀 Cipher Mining: Institutional accumulation reflected faith in its infrastructure pivot despite valuation risks.
🌀 CleanSpark: Expansion into AI-data centers and new leadership signaled strategic transformation beyond mining.
🌀HIVE Digital: A 100 MW Paraguay expansion & Bell Canada partnership strengthened its renewable HPC narrative.
🌀Hut 8: Rising analyst targets & call-option activity highlighted growing institutional enthusiasm.
---
Want to dive deeper into crypto, stocks, or other assets? Share what you’d like to see next in the comments or explore our previous posts . For a complete market overview with charts and insights delivered straight to your inbox, check the link in our bio.
---
🔷Bitcoin: Bitcoin rebounded on cooling inflation & ETF inflows, but traders remain cautiously optimistic.
🔷S&P 500: Strong corporate earnings from GM and Apple drove major index gains, offsetting weakness in select industrials.
🔷Nasdaq: AI-linked tech stocks like Nvidia and Alphabet powered Nasdaq strength despite weakness in software names.
🔷Dollar Index: The dollar edged lower on soft inflation & strong euro data, while yen and sentiment shifts capped gains.
🔷Gold: Gold pulled back as investors took profits following its safe-haven rally.
🔷 Treasury Yields: Yields dipped as softer inflation data fueled Fed-cut expectations and strong bond demand stabilized markets.
DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY/DIVERSIFIED CRYPTO
✅MicroStrategy: MicroStrategy’s slowing Bitcoin purchases and NAV compression raised concerns over growth momentum.
✅Metaplanet: Renewed optimism & undervaluation drove a rebound as leadership reaffirmed institutional Bitcoin adoption.
✅Bit Digital: Expanded ETH holdings and a $100 million note issue reinforced its AI-infrastructure pivot despite regulatory scrutiny.
✅Bitmine Immersion: Aggressive ETH accumulation lifted its status as a major Ethereum treasury player.
✅Sharplink Gaming: Strategic hires and bullish analyst coverage reignited optimism over its Ethereum treasury strategy.
✅Galaxy Digital: Record earnings and infrastructure expansion fueled confidence in its diversified digital-asset business.
✅Coinbase: Analyst upgrades and Base chain optimism lifted shares ahead of Q3 earnings.
✅Robinhood: Rapid user and crypto-trading growth attracted institutional interest and price-target hikes.
✅Circle: Upgrades and USDC growth pushed shares higher amid rising tokenization enthusiasm.
BITCOIN MINERS
🌀Marathon Digital: Additional BTC purchases spotlighted its treasury strategy but sector weakness weighed on performance.
🌀Riot Platforms: Institutional inflows boosted sentiment despite broader crypto-equity volatility.
🌀Bitfarms: Institutional stake from Jane Street and AI-data-center expansion bolstered investor confidence.
🌀Bitdeer Technologies: Strong mining output & AI-pivot plans drew analyst upgrades and investor attention.
🌀 Cipher Mining: Institutional accumulation reflected faith in its infrastructure pivot despite valuation risks.
🌀 CleanSpark: Expansion into AI-data centers and new leadership signaled strategic transformation beyond mining.
🌀HIVE Digital: A 100 MW Paraguay expansion & Bell Canada partnership strengthened its renewable HPC narrative.
🌀Hut 8: Rising analyst targets & call-option activity highlighted growing institutional enthusiasm.
---
Want to dive deeper into crypto, stocks, or other assets? Share what you’d like to see next in the comments or explore our previous posts . For a complete market overview with charts and insights delivered straight to your inbox, check the link in our bio.
---
Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.
Bitcoin miners have quietly become some of the best-performing assets in crypto — and the gap versus Bitcoin itself has never been wider.
The 10x Research BTC Mining Index has outperformed Bitcoin by more than fivefold, while several miners are pivoting into AI and high-performance computing, rewriting their investment narratives.
Yet one of the largest Bitcoin treasuries now trades at one of the lowest valuation multiples in years, signaling investor fatigue.
Meanwhile, volatility is creeping higher, ETF inflows are stabilizing, and key resistance levels are being tested.
This mix of exuberance and caution is creating a new battleground for crypto equities.
Our 10x Research BTC Mining Index has surged +378% over the past 18 months, far outpacing Bitcoin’s +73% gain.
Year-to-date leaders include IREN (+541%), Circle (+358%), Robinhood (+275%), Hut 8 (+133%), Galaxy Digital (+123%), CleanSpark (+110%), and Riot Platforms (+110%).
In contrast, MicroStrategy remains flat YTD despite Bitcoin’s +19% advance.
Our regression analysis shows MicroStrategy is 29% undervalued relative to Bitcoin, while its NAV has compressed to just 1.13x — reflecting the boom-to-bust shift since early 2024.
Follow and read our weekly report: https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-stocks-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-1b95
Bitcoin miners have quietly become some of the best-performing assets in crypto — and the gap versus Bitcoin itself has never been wider.
The 10x Research BTC Mining Index has outperformed Bitcoin by more than fivefold, while several miners are pivoting into AI and high-performance computing, rewriting their investment narratives.
Yet one of the largest Bitcoin treasuries now trades at one of the lowest valuation multiples in years, signaling investor fatigue.
Meanwhile, volatility is creeping higher, ETF inflows are stabilizing, and key resistance levels are being tested.
This mix of exuberance and caution is creating a new battleground for crypto equities.
Our 10x Research BTC Mining Index has surged +378% over the past 18 months, far outpacing Bitcoin’s +73% gain.
Year-to-date leaders include IREN (+541%), Circle (+358%), Robinhood (+275%), Hut 8 (+133%), Galaxy Digital (+123%), CleanSpark (+110%), and Riot Platforms (+110%).
In contrast, MicroStrategy remains flat YTD despite Bitcoin’s +19% advance.
Our regression analysis shows MicroStrategy is 29% undervalued relative to Bitcoin, while its NAV has compressed to just 1.13x — reflecting the boom-to-bust shift since early 2024.
Follow and read our weekly report: https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-stocks-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-1b95
Crypto Retail Traders Missed Out on $800 Billion — and It Might Be Forever.
Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by an astonishing $800 billion this cycle — and retail investors are the ones left behind.
While social media continues to promise the next “alt season,” the data tells a different story.
Our models show a decisive rotation back into Bitcoin, even as Korean retail traders, once the heart of altcoin speculation, shift their focus to U.S. crypto stocks.
Liquidity, momentum, and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet.
Meanwhile, institutions are shaping this cycle in ways few expected — and retail may not yet realize what that means.
Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by roughly $800 billion this cycle — a shortfall that would have largely benefited retail investors in previous bull markets.
This time, many retail traders appear to be missing out and are instead seeking alternative avenues for quick returns.
While commentators have repeatedly promised explosive altcoin rallies over the past one to two years, each surge has quickly fizzled out, lacking any fundamental support to sustain momentum.
A disciplined approach, trading such moves tactically and selectively, has proven to be the right strategy, just as we have consistently emphasized.
Over the past 30 days, our tactical altcoin model has favored Bitcoin over altcoins, reflecting a bottoming out in Bitcoin dominance.
This shift follows a 75-day period in which the model preferred altcoins, a phase that coincided with Ethereum’s rally, but that trend has clearly ended.
The model’s pivot back toward Bitcoin came at a critical moment, two weeks before altcoins suffered a sharp sell-off on October 11, 2025.
Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-retail-traders-missed-out-on-800-billion-and-it-might-be-forever
-----
Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by an astonishing $800 billion this cycle — and retail investors are the ones left behind.
While social media continues to promise the next “alt season,” the data tells a different story.
Our models show a decisive rotation back into Bitcoin, even as Korean retail traders, once the heart of altcoin speculation, shift their focus to U.S. crypto stocks.
Liquidity, momentum, and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet.
Meanwhile, institutions are shaping this cycle in ways few expected — and retail may not yet realize what that means.
Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by roughly $800 billion this cycle — a shortfall that would have largely benefited retail investors in previous bull markets.
This time, many retail traders appear to be missing out and are instead seeking alternative avenues for quick returns.
While commentators have repeatedly promised explosive altcoin rallies over the past one to two years, each surge has quickly fizzled out, lacking any fundamental support to sustain momentum.
A disciplined approach, trading such moves tactically and selectively, has proven to be the right strategy, just as we have consistently emphasized.
Over the past 30 days, our tactical altcoin model has favored Bitcoin over altcoins, reflecting a bottoming out in Bitcoin dominance.
This shift follows a 75-day period in which the model preferred altcoins, a phase that coincided with Ethereum’s rally, but that trend has clearly ended.
The model’s pivot back toward Bitcoin came at a critical moment, two weeks before altcoins suffered a sharp sell-off on October 11, 2025.
Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-retail-traders-missed-out-on-800-billion-and-it-might-be-forever
-----
The Bitcoin Options Market Saw This Bitcoin Move Coming
Analyzing Bitcoin option markets, derivatives flows, and positioning has become essential to anticipating where Bitcoin and Ethereum prices may head next.
While many traders were caught off guard by the recent weakness, the options market had already been signaling this shift—something we’ve consistently highlighted in our weekly Bitcoin and Ethereum option reports.
You may not be aware that we publish weekly options analysis covering Bitcoin and Ethereum, so we wanted to share a snapshot of what’s included in our latest report.
Traders are bracing for short-term turbulence across Bitcoin and Ethereum, with option markets signaling caution but not yet capitulation. V
Volatility curves have steepened at the front end, indicating a demand for near-term protection, even as longer-term expectations remain anchored. Skews have flipped sharply bearish after October’s liquidation, highlighting an uptick in put demand and hedging activity.
While Bitcoin’s implied volatility still trades above realized—rewarding option sellers—Ethereum’s has dropped below realized, making its options cheap to buy.
Flows confirm this divergence: Bitcoin traders are selling calls for income, while Ethereum traders are defensively buying puts. Against this backdrop, 10x Research sees opportunity in structured trades—shorting rich front-end BTC volatility and buying longer-dated ETH exposure to capture time decay and potential volatility normalization.
If you’d like to receive this analysis in full each week, along with deeper insights and trade ideas: https://signal.10xresearch.com/
---
Analyzing Bitcoin option markets, derivatives flows, and positioning has become essential to anticipating where Bitcoin and Ethereum prices may head next.
While many traders were caught off guard by the recent weakness, the options market had already been signaling this shift—something we’ve consistently highlighted in our weekly Bitcoin and Ethereum option reports.
You may not be aware that we publish weekly options analysis covering Bitcoin and Ethereum, so we wanted to share a snapshot of what’s included in our latest report.
Traders are bracing for short-term turbulence across Bitcoin and Ethereum, with option markets signaling caution but not yet capitulation. V
Volatility curves have steepened at the front end, indicating a demand for near-term protection, even as longer-term expectations remain anchored. Skews have flipped sharply bearish after October’s liquidation, highlighting an uptick in put demand and hedging activity.
While Bitcoin’s implied volatility still trades above realized—rewarding option sellers—Ethereum’s has dropped below realized, making its options cheap to buy.
Flows confirm this divergence: Bitcoin traders are selling calls for income, while Ethereum traders are defensively buying puts. Against this backdrop, 10x Research sees opportunity in structured trades—shorting rich front-end BTC volatility and buying longer-dated ETH exposure to capture time decay and potential volatility normalization.
If you’d like to receive this analysis in full each week, along with deeper insights and trade ideas: https://signal.10xresearch.com/
---
Bear Market Watch: What Smart Money Is Seeing in Bitcoin’s Data
Bitcoin’s rally has stalled. Beneath the surface, key on-chain and derivatives signals that once fueled momentum are now fading.
Institutional players are quietly tightening risk while retail traders remain trapped in breakeven limbo. Our proprietary models show this phase could determine whether the market resets—or reignites.
Even with supportive macro trends and a strong equity backdrop, the data tells a different story.
The real question now: are we witnessing another routine correction—or the first signs of a deeper turn?
Ever since my time on the hedge fund desk at Goldman Sachs, I’ve been building models and tools to analyze market behavior.
That continued when I moved to Morgan Stanley, where I led the Quant and Derivatives Strategies group in Asia, and later during my years in the hedge fund industry.
What makes crypto so fascinating is that the kind of internal flow data once exclusive to institutions is now openly available on-chain.
The challenge is no longer access—but interpretation: analyzing the data and developing indicators that reveal the underlying narrative or confirm a fundamental thesis. After several full market cycles, these indicators have proven invaluable in explaining the evolution of Bitcoin.
While short-term headlines drive volatility, our models show that Bitcoin is trading near critical historical levels that often mark shifts between bullish and corrective phases.
Smart money continues to trade around these signals, utilizing structure and discipline, while those operating without guidance tend to fade each cycle.
See our recent reports — “Bitcoin: Knowing When to Bet BIG — and When Not to Bet at ALL” (October 16) and “The ONE Bitcoin Trading Rule That Separates Winners from Losers” (October 14) — for deeper insights into market timing and position management.
This is why today's report matters for every Bitcoin trader and investor: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bear-market-watch-what-smart-money-is-seeing-in-bitcoin-s-data
Bitcoin’s rally has stalled. Beneath the surface, key on-chain and derivatives signals that once fueled momentum are now fading.
Institutional players are quietly tightening risk while retail traders remain trapped in breakeven limbo. Our proprietary models show this phase could determine whether the market resets—or reignites.
Even with supportive macro trends and a strong equity backdrop, the data tells a different story.
The real question now: are we witnessing another routine correction—or the first signs of a deeper turn?
Ever since my time on the hedge fund desk at Goldman Sachs, I’ve been building models and tools to analyze market behavior.
That continued when I moved to Morgan Stanley, where I led the Quant and Derivatives Strategies group in Asia, and later during my years in the hedge fund industry.
What makes crypto so fascinating is that the kind of internal flow data once exclusive to institutions is now openly available on-chain.
The challenge is no longer access—but interpretation: analyzing the data and developing indicators that reveal the underlying narrative or confirm a fundamental thesis. After several full market cycles, these indicators have proven invaluable in explaining the evolution of Bitcoin.
While short-term headlines drive volatility, our models show that Bitcoin is trading near critical historical levels that often mark shifts between bullish and corrective phases.
Smart money continues to trade around these signals, utilizing structure and discipline, while those operating without guidance tend to fade each cycle.
See our recent reports — “Bitcoin: Knowing When to Bet BIG — and When Not to Bet at ALL” (October 16) and “The ONE Bitcoin Trading Rule That Separates Winners from Losers” (October 14) — for deeper insights into market timing and position management.
This is why today's report matters for every Bitcoin trader and investor: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bear-market-watch-what-smart-money-is-seeing-in-bitcoin-s-data
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – $1.5 billion in Crypto ETF outflows and traders paying up for protection
Bitcoin’s sharp pullback has shaken leveraged traders, but derivatives markets are quietly revealing a more complex story beneath the surface.
Funding rates have reset, volatility has spiked, and option traders are positioning for something bigger than just a short-term bounce.
Ethereum, meanwhile, exhibits a curious divergence—its skew has shifted more bearish at the front end, even as long-term traders continue to buy calls.
Stablecoin inflows remain steady, but liquidity trends suggest the next directional move could be faster and sharper than most expect.
Bitcoin's outflows were $-1.2 billion over the previous 7 days, which is in the 2nd percentile, compared to $4.2 million for the last 30 days, which is in the 66th percentile.
Bitcoin ETF inflows in October have reached $3.7 billion. Ethereum outflows totaled $-312 million over the last 7 days, which is in the 6th percentile, compared to $43 million over the previous 30 days, which is in the 49th percentile.
Ethereum ETFs' net inflows in October are still $800 million.
With sentiment collapsing into extreme fear and realized volatility nearing cycle highs, smart money is already preparing for what comes next.
This week’s report breaks down what option flows, positioning data, sentiment, leverage, potential BTC and ETF range, and volatility structures are signaling about the next major move in crypto.
Want to see how we’re positioning and trading this market? Read the full report via the link below or in our bio.
Bitcoin’s sharp pullback has shaken leveraged traders, but derivatives markets are quietly revealing a more complex story beneath the surface.
Funding rates have reset, volatility has spiked, and option traders are positioning for something bigger than just a short-term bounce.
Ethereum, meanwhile, exhibits a curious divergence—its skew has shifted more bearish at the front end, even as long-term traders continue to buy calls.
Stablecoin inflows remain steady, but liquidity trends suggest the next directional move could be faster and sharper than most expect.
Bitcoin's outflows were $-1.2 billion over the previous 7 days, which is in the 2nd percentile, compared to $4.2 million for the last 30 days, which is in the 66th percentile.
Bitcoin ETF inflows in October have reached $3.7 billion. Ethereum outflows totaled $-312 million over the last 7 days, which is in the 6th percentile, compared to $43 million over the previous 30 days, which is in the 49th percentile.
Ethereum ETFs' net inflows in October are still $800 million.
With sentiment collapsing into extreme fear and realized volatility nearing cycle highs, smart money is already preparing for what comes next.
This week’s report breaks down what option flows, positioning data, sentiment, leverage, potential BTC and ETF range, and volatility structures are signaling about the next major move in crypto.
Want to see how we’re positioning and trading this market? Read the full report via the link below or in our bio.
Did Binance Just Socialize Hundreds of Millions in Losses—Triggering a New Wave of Altcoin Liquidations? What does it mean?
As we noted a week ago, during the $19.6 billion crypto liquidation event, long liquidations on Binance accounted for only 59% of all liquidations—far lower than the 90%+ seen on other exchanges.
This divergence highlights the role of ADL (Auto-Deleveraging), a risk mechanism employed by derivatives platforms such as Binance to protect the system when liquidations can’t be filled quickly enough during volatile market moves.
In a crash, ADL may automatically close or reduce profitable positions held by other traders, often market makers or market-neutral funds, to offset the losses of bankrupt accounts.
For hedge funds and market makers holding long-short positions across exchanges, this can unexpectedly break hedges and create sudden directional exposure, turning “neutral” books into loss-making ones.
That’s why we argued this crash was unlikely to produce a V-shaped rebound and would instead lead to further deleveraging, particularly in altcoins.
The 41% of short liquidations remains significant—it may take days or even weeks to understand how and at what levels Binance unwound positions.
Affected funds and market makers are now focused on tightening risk and reducing exposure, likely by selling altcoins rather than seeking fresh profit opportunities.
What does this mean for altcoins: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/did-binance-just-socialize-hundreds-of-millions-in-losses-triggering-a-new-wave-of-altcoin-liquidati
As we noted a week ago, during the $19.6 billion crypto liquidation event, long liquidations on Binance accounted for only 59% of all liquidations—far lower than the 90%+ seen on other exchanges.
This divergence highlights the role of ADL (Auto-Deleveraging), a risk mechanism employed by derivatives platforms such as Binance to protect the system when liquidations can’t be filled quickly enough during volatile market moves.
In a crash, ADL may automatically close or reduce profitable positions held by other traders, often market makers or market-neutral funds, to offset the losses of bankrupt accounts.
For hedge funds and market makers holding long-short positions across exchanges, this can unexpectedly break hedges and create sudden directional exposure, turning “neutral” books into loss-making ones.
That’s why we argued this crash was unlikely to produce a V-shaped rebound and would instead lead to further deleveraging, particularly in altcoins.
The 41% of short liquidations remains significant—it may take days or even weeks to understand how and at what levels Binance unwound positions.
Affected funds and market makers are now focused on tightening risk and reducing exposure, likely by selling altcoins rather than seeking fresh profit opportunities.
What does this mean for altcoins: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/did-binance-just-socialize-hundreds-of-millions-in-losses-triggering-a-new-wave-of-altcoin-liquidati
After the Magic: How Bitcoin Treasury Firms Must Evolve Beyond NAV Illusions
Why this report matters
The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies.
They conjured billions in paper wealth by issuing shares far above their real Bitcoin value—until the illusion vanished.
Now, those once-celebrated NAV premiums have collapsed, leaving investors holding the empty cup while executives walked away with the gold.
The question isn’t whether the trick worked—it’s what comes next when the smoke clears.
With volatility falling and the easy gains gone, these firms face a hard pivot from marketing-driven momentum to real market discipline.
The next act won’t be about magic—it will be about who can still generate alpha when the audience stops believing.
Main argument
“Whoever can move the gold coins from one cup to the other without touching either the cups or the coins may keep them,” the magician announced, pointing to two cups before him—one filled with glittering coins, the other empty.
The audience leaned in, puzzled.
How could that be possible? The magician draped a cloth over the cups, whispered abracadabra, snapped his fingers, and lifted the cover.
To everyone’s astonishment, the gold coins had somehow shifted from one cup to the other—without a single hand laid upon them.
How was it done?
Surely, it must have been magic or not?
How does this relate to Bitcoin Treasury Firms and how must they evolve beyond those NAV illusions? Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/after-the-magic-how-bitcoin-treasury-firms-must-evolve-beyond-nav-illusions
Why this report matters
The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies.
They conjured billions in paper wealth by issuing shares far above their real Bitcoin value—until the illusion vanished.
Now, those once-celebrated NAV premiums have collapsed, leaving investors holding the empty cup while executives walked away with the gold.
The question isn’t whether the trick worked—it’s what comes next when the smoke clears.
With volatility falling and the easy gains gone, these firms face a hard pivot from marketing-driven momentum to real market discipline.
The next act won’t be about magic—it will be about who can still generate alpha when the audience stops believing.
Main argument
“Whoever can move the gold coins from one cup to the other without touching either the cups or the coins may keep them,” the magician announced, pointing to two cups before him—one filled with glittering coins, the other empty.
The audience leaned in, puzzled.
How could that be possible? The magician draped a cloth over the cups, whispered abracadabra, snapped his fingers, and lifted the cover.
To everyone’s astonishment, the gold coins had somehow shifted from one cup to the other—without a single hand laid upon them.
How was it done?
Surely, it must have been magic or not?
How does this relate to Bitcoin Treasury Firms and how must they evolve beyond those NAV illusions? Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/after-the-magic-how-bitcoin-treasury-firms-must-evolve-beyond-nav-illusions
Bitcoin: Knowing When to Bet BIG — and When Not to Bet at ALL
Actionable Market Insights
Bitcoin investors who entered the market only in recent years tend to be the most vocal advocates of “HODLing” through bear markets.
At the same time, legacy investors and experienced traders make their decisions based on proven indicators and market signals.
This distinction often separates winners from losers, with the savvy traders selling to the ignorant holders near the top.
I’ve seen this play out in the last two cycles, as well as the one before that, when experienced traders locked in profits early, giving them the flexibility to buy back at much lower levels later on.
Roulette players almost always lose if they stay at the table long enough, watching the ball spin round and round.
The odds are against them because roulette is a game of luck, not skill.
Altcoins work in much the same way: while smart traders avoid games driven by chance, the uninformed often feel an irresistible urge to keep rolling the dice.
For Bitcoin traders, however, three key indicators help determine when to bet big and when to stay out altogether.
We’ve discussed these indicators frequently, and while most of our readers are already familiar with them, it’s worth revisiting them once more.
Given Bitcoin’s current levels, these indicators matter now more than ever.
Our must-read report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-knowing-when-to-bet-big-and-when-not-to-bet-at-all
Actionable Market Insights
Bitcoin investors who entered the market only in recent years tend to be the most vocal advocates of “HODLing” through bear markets.
At the same time, legacy investors and experienced traders make their decisions based on proven indicators and market signals.
This distinction often separates winners from losers, with the savvy traders selling to the ignorant holders near the top.
I’ve seen this play out in the last two cycles, as well as the one before that, when experienced traders locked in profits early, giving them the flexibility to buy back at much lower levels later on.
Roulette players almost always lose if they stay at the table long enough, watching the ball spin round and round.
The odds are against them because roulette is a game of luck, not skill.
Altcoins work in much the same way: while smart traders avoid games driven by chance, the uninformed often feel an irresistible urge to keep rolling the dice.
For Bitcoin traders, however, three key indicators help determine when to bet big and when to stay out altogether.
We’ve discussed these indicators frequently, and while most of our readers are already familiar with them, it’s worth revisiting them once more.
Given Bitcoin’s current levels, these indicators matter now more than ever.
Our must-read report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-knowing-when-to-bet-big-and-when-not-to-bet-at-all
Early-Bird Deal: Consensus Hong Kong Tickets for $399 (Save $700!)
https://go.coindesk.com/hk26-10xresearch
This year, we had the pleasure of hosting several successful 10x Research community events and investor meetings across Hong Kong, Dubai, London, and Singapore. We’re excited to announce that this lineup will return in 2026 — with the possibility of adding one or two new cities.
The first stop will be in Hong Kong during the Consensus Conferences (February 10–12, 2026). We’re pleased to offer our community an exclusive 20% discount code — meaning that instead of $1,099, early bird buyers can secure tickets for just $399 (a $700 saving).
Discount code: 10XDESK
We’ll also be hosting another 10x Research side event during that week. You can secure your conference ticket below, and if you’re interested in joining our side event, please let us know at [email protected]
Hong Kong Consensus Tickets HERE: https://go.coindesk.com/hk26-10xresearch
https://go.coindesk.com/hk26-10xresearch
This year, we had the pleasure of hosting several successful 10x Research community events and investor meetings across Hong Kong, Dubai, London, and Singapore. We’re excited to announce that this lineup will return in 2026 — with the possibility of adding one or two new cities.
The first stop will be in Hong Kong during the Consensus Conferences (February 10–12, 2026). We’re pleased to offer our community an exclusive 20% discount code — meaning that instead of $1,099, early bird buyers can secure tickets for just $399 (a $700 saving).
Discount code: 10XDESK
We’ll also be hosting another 10x Research side event during that week. You can secure your conference ticket below, and if you’re interested in joining our side event, please let us know at [email protected]
Hong Kong Consensus Tickets HERE: https://go.coindesk.com/hk26-10xresearch
Are Circuit Breakers Coming to Crypto? What Would That Mean for the Market?
Last week’s crypto crash exposed deep cracks in how exchanges handle liquidations—and why some made money while others lost hundreds of millions.
A system meant to provide liquidity instead amplified chaos, forcing even the biggest players to rethink how risk is managed.
Behind the scenes, data transparency, insurance funds, and automated liquidation engines all played a much bigger role than most traders realize.
Now, a debate is emerging that could redefine crypto market structure: should exchanges introduce circuit breakers like in traditional finance?
Such a move could permanently change how volatility behaves—and who profits from it.
Political backlash intensified in May 2021 after billions in leveraged long positions were liquidated, following Elon Musk’s announcement that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin due to environmental concerns.
Behind the scenes, exchanges changed their reporting in 2021 and the latest crash could also have severe implications that might leave a structural mark on the market - what it means, we explain here: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/are-circuit-breakers-coming-to-crypto-what-would-that-mean-for-the-market
Last week’s crypto crash exposed deep cracks in how exchanges handle liquidations—and why some made money while others lost hundreds of millions.
A system meant to provide liquidity instead amplified chaos, forcing even the biggest players to rethink how risk is managed.
Behind the scenes, data transparency, insurance funds, and automated liquidation engines all played a much bigger role than most traders realize.
Now, a debate is emerging that could redefine crypto market structure: should exchanges introduce circuit breakers like in traditional finance?
Such a move could permanently change how volatility behaves—and who profits from it.
Political backlash intensified in May 2021 after billions in leveraged long positions were liquidated, following Elon Musk’s announcement that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin due to environmental concerns.
Behind the scenes, exchanges changed their reporting in 2021 and the latest crash could also have severe implications that might leave a structural mark on the market - what it means, we explain here: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/are-circuit-breakers-coming-to-crypto-what-would-that-mean-for-the-market
The ONE Bitcoin Trading Rule That Separates Winners from Losers
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Volatility has returned with a vengeance, and traders are struggling to distinguish between noise and opportunity.
Bitcoin is hovering between two critical “risk-off” levels, while the altcoin landscape is reshaping faster than most realize.
Beneath the surface, funding rates, positioning resets, and volatility premiums are quietly creating asymmetric setups that few are watching.
Retail narratives won’t drive the next move—but by structural capital flows and the way TradFi now trades crypto.
We’re already seeing signs of which assets are regaining strength and which are fading for good.
Rather than taking a broad-based “buy the dip” approach, we continue to advocate caution — focusing on selective, tactical (short-term) trading and some strategic (long-term) positions while maintaining a clear eye on key support zones that define the next directional move.
Amid all the noise and uncertainty, one simple Bitcoin trading rule has always separated winners from losers — and as we approach those key levels again, the market is about to reveal which side you’re on.
Our MUST read report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-one-bitcoin-trading-rule-that-separates-winners-from-losers
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Volatility has returned with a vengeance, and traders are struggling to distinguish between noise and opportunity.
Bitcoin is hovering between two critical “risk-off” levels, while the altcoin landscape is reshaping faster than most realize.
Beneath the surface, funding rates, positioning resets, and volatility premiums are quietly creating asymmetric setups that few are watching.
Retail narratives won’t drive the next move—but by structural capital flows and the way TradFi now trades crypto.
We’re already seeing signs of which assets are regaining strength and which are fading for good.
Rather than taking a broad-based “buy the dip” approach, we continue to advocate caution — focusing on selective, tactical (short-term) trading and some strategic (long-term) positions while maintaining a clear eye on key support zones that define the next directional move.
Amid all the noise and uncertainty, one simple Bitcoin trading rule has always separated winners from losers — and as we approach those key levels again, the market is about to reveal which side you’re on.
Our MUST read report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-one-bitcoin-trading-rule-that-separates-winners-from-losers
How a $10,000 trade paid for 10x subscription (in one day)
This trade alone could’ve already paid for your 10x Research subscription
Most people get buried under random crypto headlines — but few get actionable trading ideas that actually deliver results. That’s what we focus on at 10x Research.
Over the past few days, markets have been chaotic — yet within that chaos, we identified opportunity. In yesterday’s report, we highlighted a trade that’s already up +11% in 24 hours.
A simple $10,000 position would have covered an entire year of our premium subscription — and we still project up to +100% upside from here.
This is the edge our subscribers rely on: data-backed insights, clear analysis of market structure, and precise trade setups — not noise or hype.
👉 Don’t just read about the market — profit from it.
Join 10x Research today and get immediate access to our latest trading idea before the next move unfolds.
Subscribe Now → https://update.10xresearch.com/upgrade
This trade alone could’ve already paid for your 10x Research subscription
Most people get buried under random crypto headlines — but few get actionable trading ideas that actually deliver results. That’s what we focus on at 10x Research.
Over the past few days, markets have been chaotic — yet within that chaos, we identified opportunity. In yesterday’s report, we highlighted a trade that’s already up +11% in 24 hours.
A simple $10,000 position would have covered an entire year of our premium subscription — and we still project up to +100% upside from here.
This is the edge our subscribers rely on: data-backed insights, clear analysis of market structure, and precise trade setups — not noise or hype.
👉 Don’t just read about the market — profit from it.
Join 10x Research today and get immediate access to our latest trading idea before the next move unfolds.
Subscribe Now → https://update.10xresearch.com/upgrade
Συνδεθείτε για να εξερευνήσετε περισσότερα περιεχόμενα