Everyone knows that in Crypto, the first mover is always king. But most don't understand why 🤔
In traditional industries, there are countless examples of the second-mover winning. It's why we have patents. To encourage innovators.
So why, in Crypto specifically, does EVERY copier always lose?
The answer is perverse incentives.
Why does the first-mover choose to innovate? Because they see a real problem that needs to be solved. Spark. They build a solution and work hard to market it. "A new narrative".
But why would a second-mover copy this? In traditional industries it's usually because they think the market is bigger and can take marketshare.
But in crypto, there is a much darker reason to copy. We have tokens!
Most copiers in crypto simply care about launching and short-term pumping their token. This delivers them drastically higher EV and faster, rather than actually having to work hard.
Competition is good. It drives down prices for users. But these aren't real competitors. They only try to ride a narrative as its convenient for them.
So, second-movers lose because they don't actually care about winning. They simply care surviving the short-term. Long enough to dump on retail.
This is where shady OTC deals, Market Maker, and KOL agreements come in... and these copiers are ripe with all of these and more!
So don't bet on these guys and end up holding the bag. If you want to trade it, sure, short-term there may be profits. But remember to dump before the insiders unlock :)
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The fact that I feel like most folks are sidelined or more sidelined then they'd like to be at near-ATHs, makes me feel like we will likely run hard as we break it.
Feels like that given insane bear posting as prices fall, followed by silence as prices rise (or larp-bullposting).
Also, the %shorts we still have at ATHs here is pretty crazy.
Usually I have a good pulse on Macro too but rn I haven't really been following, so it's heavily macro dependant here.