$BTC shocked the market after peaking at $126,000 just weeks ago — and now traders are asking one thing:
“How far will this correction go… and what are the real chances of Bitcoin hitting $100K again before 2028?”
Here’s the data-driven, no-nonsense breakdown 👇
📉 How Low Can Bitcoin Drop?
Based on all historical drawdowns (50–85% crashes), ETF outflows, and current macro pressure:
📌 Most likely bottom before 2028: ~$40,000
A clean 65–70% drawdown from the $126K peak — right in line with previous cycles.
📌 Chance BTC touches $50,000 at least once before 2028: ~80%
Bitcoin has never avoided a deep retrace after a major peak.
📌 Chance of a full crash to $25K or lower: ~10–15%
Would require a major regulatory shock or a crypto-wide liquidity crisis.
🚀 Will Bitcoin Return to $100K?
Surprisingly, the upside looks stronger than the downside.
📌 Probability BTC hits $100,000 again before 2028: ~90%
It already reached this level recently, and every past cycle has seen a recovery back toward previous highs within 1–3 years.
Even with volatility, ETF demand, long-term holders, and macro cycles all point to Bitcoin revisiting six digits.
