✅ What’s driving the gold opportunity
1. Strong structural demand: Global demand for gold (including over-the‐counter investment) grew ~3 % y/y in Q3 2025 to a record ~1,313 tonnes.
The value of that demand jumped ~44 % y/y.
Central banks continue buying gold as part of reserves.
2. Forecasts point higher:
According to a Reuters poll: average price for 2026 expected ~$4,275/oz, up from ~$3,400/oz for 2025.
Morgan Stanley suggests even ~$4,500/oz by mid-2026.
Goldman Sachs sees cross-$4,000/oz as feasible with current drivers.
3. Supportive macro backdrop:
Gold is often favoured when inflation is high, real interest rates are low/negative, the US dollar weakens, or geopolitical risk rises.
For Pakistan: local currency dynamics, inflation, and import-duty/taxes on gold also matter. For example, Pakistan’s gold-local price recently saw significant swings.
