Everyone’s Calling It Alt Season. The Charts Say Otherwise. 🧵
Back in 2024, the first Fed rate cut sparked a sharp move up —
the kind of rally everyone loves to call the start of a new cycle.
By September, it turned into a classic pump-and-dump.
A wave of optimism — not a foundation for sustained growth.
Then came November.
Trump’s election victory triggered another surge.
ETH ripped higher, driven more by headlines than fundamentals.
For a moment, it felt like momentum was back.
But December reminded us how short-lived those bursts can be.
That local top led to an eight-month correction —
Ethereum slid over 60% before finding its footing again.
Now, as we move deeper into 2025, momentum’s back…
but another correction around September wouldn’t be surprising.
Maybe 15–20%. Not a collapse — a reset.
ETH’s still up 60%+ since the first cut.
But remember: rate cuts aren’t magic.
They usually happen when the economy’s cooling —
when liquidity’s being reshuffled, not expanded.
The relief can be powerful… but rarely smooth or predictable.
And this weekend adds another wildcard —
Trump–Xi tariff deadlines.
One comment, one shift, one headline — and the market’s mood flips.
So while social media screams “alt season,”
history says: rate cuts can fuel rallies —
but they can also warn that liquidity’s thinning and growth’s slowing.
Crypto reacts first and hardest —
but macro still drives the wheel.