Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who once predicted Bitcoin would sooner crash to $100 before it hits $100,000, has admitted a lot has changed since his comments seven years ago — though he seemingly still hasn’t come around to Bitcoin.
“Almost a decade ago, I was the Harvard economist that said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100K. What did I miss?” he wrote on X on Wednesday, referring to a segment on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in March 2018.
Rogoff is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and also author of ‘Our Dollar, Your Problem’, which was published in May.
In 2018, Rogoff said that government regulation would trigger a drop in Bitcoin prices.
However, since the Trump administration won the November election, it broke $100,000 in December 2024 and has surged more than 80% to a new all-time high.
“I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” he said, indicating his stance on crypto hasn’t changed.
Bitcoin competes with fiat currency
“Second, I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice in the twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy,” he continued on X.
However, Bitcoin has become an inflation hedge in many countries where local currencies have been massively devalued by governments.
Illicit activity tied to cryptocurrencies was around $50 billion in 2024, according to Chainalysis, but this is a drop in the ocean and less than 1% of what is laundered using cash.
“Third, I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence given the blatant conflict of interest.”
Crypto X decides to take it as a win anyway
Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, responded, stating that Rogoff “Failed to imagine that a decentralized project, which drew power from people and not centralized institutions, could succeed at scale.”
Meanwhile, a researcher at digital assets brokerage FalconX, David Lawant, said he was “very thankful” to Rogoff, as his book ‘The Curse of Cash’ was “so terrible” that it was “one of the things that pushed me to BTC.”
Head of digital assets research and VanEck, Matthew Sigel, posted his list of Bitcoin’s loudest critics on Tuesday, ranking Rogoff in ninth place. He “wrote Bitcoin’s obituary too early from within his own echo chamber,” said Sigel.
“Maybe you missed it because you live in an echo chamber, same as when you lock replies,” he added, referring to Rogoff preventing people from replying to his posts on X.
“Fundamentals matter: fiat debasement, demographic wealth shifts, and global demand for a neutral reserve asset.”
Ironically, the Harvard Management Company, which is responsible for managing the university’s $53 billion endowment fund, reported a $116 million investment in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month.
⚡ FLASHBACK: In 2018, a Harvard economist said $BTC is more likely to hit $100 than $100K.
Now they invested $116M. pic.twitter.com/YDdZylmzdk
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) August 10, 2025
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