On the chart, the orange column peaks (64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024) coincided with local price maximums, at which point the influx of new liquidity was exhausted and old holders began actively taking profits. The current value of 30% is only half of the "overheated" levels, but the trend is directed upward: the purple fill (cumulative activity of young coins) has been steadily growing since July 2024. This indicates that a notable layer of new buyers is entering the market, however pressure from more experienced players is not yet critical.
Market conclusions for end of July 2025:
1. New investor dominance is strengthening, but there is still room before extreme levels. This creates space for continuation of the bullish impulse before the typical euphoria zone above 60-70% emerges.
2. Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 means that the supply of three-year-old coins is still absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations. From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.
3. If the indicator's growth accelerates and approaches the historical corridor of 0.6-0.7, one should expect intensified profit-taking and, consequently, a correction. For now, the supply/demand structure remains in a healthy late bull cycle phase, when new money is coming in but old players have not yet transitioned to mass selling.
I'd like to remind you that each week I publish a detailed review on Substack, where I analyze not only on-chain data, but also macroeconomics, stocks, futures, and news from the past week, providing practical recommendations for Bitcoin. You can subscribe here: adlerinsight.com
Good luck,
AAJ
Written by AxelAdlerJr
