Anndy Lian
Macro events and market movements: What to watch
The global financial markets are currently a whirlwind of activity, weaving together threads of optimism, uncertainty, and transformation. From equities soaring to new heights in the United States to the looming shadow of escalating tariffs, and from the steadiness of fixed income to the burgeoning adoption of Bitcoin by public companies, there’s a lot to unpack.
Equities: Highs and hiccups
Let’s start with equities, where the US markets are painting a picture of triumph tinged with tension. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are hitting new highs, driven by powerhouse performances in the tech and travel sectors. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are riding a wave of strong earnings, fuelled by relentless demand for innovation.
Meanwhile, the travel industry, think Delta Air Lines and Marriott International, is bouncing back with gusto, as pent-up wanderlust meets improving economic sentiment. It’s an exhilarating time for investors, and I can’t help but feel a surge of optimism watching these sectors thrive.
But there’s a catch. President Trump’s recent threat to slap a 35 per cent tariff on some Canadian goods, set to kick in on August 1, is rattling nerves. He’s not stopping there; rumblings of 15 per cent to 20 per cent levies on most other countries suggest a trade war could be brewing.
This escalation casts a shadow over the bullish mood, and I worry it might choke the momentum we’re seeing. Across the Atlantic, Europe offers a glimmer of hope. The Stoxx 600 is perking up, buoyed by whispers of a potential EU-US trade deal.
Mining and retail sectors are leading the charge, and while the optimism is cautious, it’s a lifeline that could steady European markets. Balancing these highs and hiccups, I see a market teetering between opportunity and risk, exhilarating yet precarious.
Volatility: The calm before the storm?
Turning to volatility, the scene is surprisingly serene. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge,” is lounging near its March lows. Short-term volatilities are fading, and the S&P 500 is priced for small moves, suggesting traders are betting on stability.
It’s almost too quiet, and that makes me uneasy. Historically, low volatility has been a prelude to sharp corrections, like a calm sea hiding a brewing tempest. With tariff tensions simmering and geopolitical uncertainties lurking, this tranquility feels fragile.
I’d advise investors to enjoy the peace but keep their eyes peeled; the market’s current complacency could flip in an instant if trade talks sour or unexpected shocks hit.
Fixed income: A steady anchor
In the fixed income realm, US Treasuries are holding firm after a flurry of government bond sales. The 10-year Treasury yield has settled at 4.35 per cent, a beacon of stability amid the storm. Trump’s bold call for a 300-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut has tongues wagging, fuelling speculation of a dovish shift.
Markets are still penciling in two rate cuts this year, though a hold this month seems most likely. I find this steadiness reassuring; it’s a sign that investors are flocking to safety as tariff threats loom.
But the yield’s stability also hints at a wait-and-see approach. If the Fed does pivot to cuts, it could ease borrowing costs and spur growth, though I suspect they’ll move cautiously, wary of inflation’s stubborn streak.
Currencies: The dollar’s quiet strength
Currencies are dancing to the tune of tariff jitters, with the US dollar (USD) notching its first weekly gain in three weeks. The Bloomberg Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.7 per cent, flexing against heavyweights like the Japanese Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR), and Canadian Dollar (CAD). The CAD is taking a hit after Trump’s tariff threat, and I can see why; trade disruptions with a key partner like the US sting.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is a rare bright spot, inching up after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady. I view the USD’s modest rally as a classic flight to safety; when uncertainty spikes, the greenback shines. It’s not a roaring comeback, but a quiet reminder of its safe-haven clout in choppy times.
Commodities: A tale of two trends
Commodities are a mixed bag, and I’m fascinated by the contrasts. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is flat, masking a tug-of-war beneath the surface. Metals are stealing the show, copper’s up 8.6 per cent in New York, turbocharged by tariff-driven supply fears, while silver’s eyeing its highest weekly close in 13 years at US$37.32.
These gains thrill me; they signal industrial demand and a hedge against uncertainty. But agriculture’s a different story, corn’s down five per cent, weighed by bumper harvests and good weather.
I feel for farmers facing this slump; it’s a stark reminder of nature’s whims. Energy’s holding steady, with fuel products offsetting natural gas weakness. Crude prices dipped two per cent Thursday on oversupply fears but stabilised after Trump teased a Russia announcement. Gold’s flat, caught between tariff woes and Fed policy bets.
This split performance tells me commodities are a microcosm of broader tensions; some sectors thrive, others falter, reflecting an uneven economic pulse.
Macro events: Data points and trade tensions
Macro events are piling on the intrigue. The UK’s May trade balance and industrial production data, due at 0600 GMT, will spotlight its post-Brexit health amid global trade friction. I’m eager to see if resilience holds or cracks appear. Canada’s June unemployment rate, out at 1230 GMT, might tick up, hinting at growth pains, especially with Trump’s tariff sword dangling.
Speaking of which, his 35 per cent Canadian tariff threat, plus potential 15 per cent-20 per cent hikes elsewhere, feels like a seismic shift. The EU’s next in line, and I dread the ripple effects; a full-blown trade war could stall global growth. Then there’s Fed Governor Goolsbee’s speech at 1700 GMT; his words could sway rate cut odds. These events are puzzle pieces, and I’m piecing them together with a mix of anticipation and concern.
Macro data: A labour market puzzle
In the US, macro data offers a riddle. Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to 227,000 in early July, beating forecasts of 235,000 and marking four straight drops. That’s a cheer-worthy sign of labor strength, and I’m impressed by the resilience. Yet, ongoing claims rose 10,000 to 1,965,000, the highest since 2021, flagging slower hiring.
It’s a mixed bag that leaves me pondering: Are we seeing a robust market with a soft underbelly? Trump’s tariff saber-rattling and his 300-basis-point cut push add spice to this stew. I suspect the Fed’s watching closely, balancing growth signals against trade-induced inflation risks.
Bitcoin: A corporate crypto wave
Now, a curveball, Bitcoin. My favourite topic. Blockware Intelligence predicts 36 more public companies will add it to their balance sheets by 2025’s end, a 25 per cent jump from the current 141. This year alone, adoption soared 120 per cent, with giants like Michael Saylor’s Strategy (597,325 BTC) and MARA Holdings (50,000 BTC) leading.
I’m intrigued, this isn’t just a crypto fad; it’s a strategic pivot. Companies are betting on Bitcoin as an inflation shield and portfolio diversifier, bridging traditional finance and digital assets. If this pans out, it could juice Bitcoin’s price and legitimacy. I’m cautiously excited but wonder: will regulatory hurdles or market swings trip up this trend? Anyway, it has hit over US$120,000 per Bitcoin. This is also a celebration call.
My take: Opportunity meets uncertainty
Stepping back, I see a world brimming with possibility yet shadowed by risk. Equities dazzle, but tariffs threaten to dim the lights. Volatility’s hush feels deceptive, and fixed income’s calm anchors us, for now.
The USD’s steady rise and commodities’ split story reflect a globe in flux, while macro data and events hint at choppy waters ahead. Bitcoin’s corporate surge is a wild card I can’t ignore. My gut says adaptability is key; investors should savor the wins but brace for turbulence.
Source: https://e27.co/macro-events-and-market-movements-what-to-watch-20250714/
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