📉 Could a July Fed Rate Cut Spark a $BTC Rally?
As U.S. inflation eases, speculators are eyeing a possible July rate cut—a move that could send Bitcoin surging into triple-digit territory.
🔍 Slowing Inflation & Fed Policy
Headline inflation has cooled to 2.3%, the lowest in four years, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve .
Despite the drop, Powell stressed the need for more data before cutting rates, citing tariff uncertainty and upcoming June employment figures .
🎯 Bitcoin’s Reaction Scenarios
Scenario Fed Action Likely BTC Reaction
**July Rate Cut (~<5% odds)** Modest boost → Rally to $110K+ Bullish – follow-through rally
No July Cut Sideways/regional trade in $104K–$108K range Neutral – patient consolidation
Confirmed for Fall Cuts Shift in sentiment → Build-up toward September Bullish – momentum builds early
Recent CME FedWatch data shows July cut odds are below 5%, while expectations have shifted more toward a September move .
📈 Trader Takeaways
Monitor upcoming CPI and June jobs data—they’re critical for rate-cut sentiment swings.
Watch the $104K–$108K zone—it’s acting as a key support range.
A clear daily close above $110K on easing data could confirm renewed strength.
🧠 Bottom Line
A July rate cut could spark a rally, but the odds are slim. The market is leaning toward a September cut. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains in a critical range. Keep tracking macro data—this could be the setup for the next major move.
