This is one of the simlest and yet most genius bull / bear market indicators.

12 month SMA - red = bear market, green = bull market.

And yet, people try to go against the trend. They are waiting for their "genius moment" where they can pin their post "I called the top". But tbh, these are the type of people that go short on support or long at resistance because "it might break"

Regarding their macro view: they will eventually be right, one day. But even a broken clock is right twice a day.

These people don't make any money. They kept screaming "30k" at the 48k ETF approval peak, after 73k (new ATH) and now.

And sure, the day will come when they are right.

For now, we are in a bull market.

You don't have to be a genius to recognize that.

I'm happy to change my bias, once data indicates it.