Bitcoin’s price has increased over 250 percent since 2022 while long-term yields remained above 4 percent.
The DXY has held above 105 yet Bitcoin kept climbing which signals a shift in global investor demand.
Yields on the 5-year and 30-year notes have stayed high yet BTC continues attracting capital flows.
In a surprising trend, Bitcoin has continued its rally even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields hit record levels. This contradicts traditional market behavior where rising yields and a stronger dollar usually pull investors away from risk assets like crypto. A new chart from CryptoQuant presents this shift using a clear visual comparison.
Source: X
The chart plots Bitcoin’s price against the DXY and Treasury yields from the 2-year to the 30-year mark. It reveals a macroeconomic divergence, with Bitcoin climbing while both the DXY and long-term US yields remain elevated. Historically, these conditions have coincided with market corrections, not rallies.
This development raises a key question: Can Bitcoin maintain its upward momentum in a tightening macroeconomic environment?
Macro Trends Shape Crypto Markets
Macroeconomics now plays a critical role in cryptocurrency markets. Key indicators like Treasury yields and the DXY are tracked more closely than ever by investors. These metrics reflect broader financial conditions and institutional sentiment across global markets.
The recent CryptoQuant chart compares Bitcoin’s performance with the DXY and several US Treasury yields. These include the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year notes, along with the 13-week bill and 2-year note. Each yield shows rising trends since 2022, aligning with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
Despite this, Bitcoin’s price has surged. It has moved from under $20,000 in late 2022 to above $70,000 in early 2025. This rise has occurred even while the DXY climbed above 105 and 30-year yields pushed past 4.5%. This pattern defies conventional macro logic and marks a potential shift in risk appetite.
Shifting Capital Behavior Defies History
Historically, when the DXY and yields rise, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to drop. This is because higher yields offer better returns on low-risk investments like bonds. Strong dollar conditions typically reduce demand for assets priced in USD, such as Bitcoin.
The chart reflects that trend during past corrections. For instance, between late 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin fell as yields and the DXY surged. This behavior aligned with a flight to safety amid fears of inflation and rate hikes.
However, current data shows a break from that correlation. As yields remain high, Bitcoin has continued to attract capital. Market observers suggest that investor priorities are shifting due to factors such as monetary policy expectations and inflation stability.
Liquidity and Risk Sentiment May Be Evolving
The current rally may reflect growing optimism about global liquidity and monetary easing. When yields and the DXY stall or reverse, investors often move toward risk assets again. Historically, such periods have coincided with bull cycles in Bitcoin.
While yields have stayed elevated, the momentum in their growth appears to be slowing. This change may signal investor belief that rate hikes are nearing an end. Capital may now be repositioning in anticipation of a more accommodative policy stance.
The broader implication is that risk sentiment may be evolving. Bitcoin’s resilience during strong macro headwinds may indicate a maturing market narrative. Institutional behavior appears increasingly nuanced, suggesting more complex risk models now influence digital asset allocation.
