• Aptos smart contract deployments hit a six-month high, showing strong developer momentum.

  • APT price fell 8.85% despite rising spot demand and aggressive buyer activity.

  • Derivatives and DEX volume surged, but weak TVL signals long-term capital outflows.

You’d expect a blockchain with booming developer activity to rally. But Aptos — APT, had other plans. While Aptos saw smart contract deployments explode past 450 daily—a six-month high—the token dipped nearly 9%. Developers clearly believe in the chain. The price? Not so much. With $4.48 now acting as fragile support, many traders are watching closely. So what’s causing this split between bullish activity and falling value? Let’s break it down.

https://twitter.com/johnmorganFL/status/1933682337855733927?t=sKrLeQf-epyxZkpD2e3f3A&s=19 Buyers Step In, But Price Refuses to Budge

Spot traders remain aggressive.Buy-side pressure dominates the CVD, showing strong demand in spot markets. Traders seem confident, soaking up APT even as price trends lower. But the price action hasn't rewarded that faith. Instead, APT floats just above the bottom of a multi-month range between $4.2 and $7. This disconnect raises a red flag. High demand without a price breakout often creates frustration.

If bulls keep pushing without results, they may burn out. The daily RSI now hovers around 38. That’s text book’s oversold. Still, support at $4.2 has seen repeated tests. Without a firm bounce, another breakdown could follow. Bulls might defend the zone again, but confidence wears thin each time. So far, no real capitulation, just hesitance. That leaves the door open for both rebounds and drops.

Derivatives, DEX, and Mixed On-Chain Signals

The derivatives market shows signs of life. Open Interest surged 11.78%, touching $181.92 million. Volume climbed 5.26% to $305.97 million. That means more traders are jumping back in, using leverage, and expecting volatility soon. Whether they expect upside or downside depends on sentiment, but activity is heating up. DEX volume tells another story. In the last 24 hours, Aptos-based DEXs processed $165.7 million. Weekly volume climbed 26%, showing rising short-term speculation.

On the other hand, TVL shrank by nearly 6%, hinting that long-term capital might be flowing out. This suggests a tug-of-war between traders and holders. One group bets on fast profits. The other quietly steps back. Developer activity, however, keeps climbing. This suggests builders still see value in Aptos. If confidence returns to the broader market, that momentum could help lift the price. But without price confirmation, belief alone won’t drive a rally.

Momentum builds on-chain. Developers stay loyal. Traders lean bullish. Yet price still dances on the edge of a key support. A bounce above $5 might flip sentiment and spark a rally. If bulls reclaim $5.5, real momentum could return. But time ticks, and patience thins. Until price joins the party, Aptos risks losing steam.