On the chart, it’s clear that at the end of May 2025, the Net UTXO Supply Ratio metric generated four consecutive SELL signals, accompanied by a decline in the UTXO Ratio from local highs. This is a typical pattern for an overheated market phase, where profit-taking occurs and demand begins to lag supply. These signals indicate that a large portion of coins has moved into unrealized profit, reducing the incentive to HODL and increasing the likelihood of profit-taking.
At this point, the market needs a reset.
Possible Scenarios:
Sideways Trading ($95,000 – $105,000)
BTC may “hang out” between $95K – $105K until the Net UTXO Supply Ratio stabilizes around 0.85 – 0.9. This is a classic “cooling-off” pattern after a series of SELL signals.
Mild Pullback ($92,000 – $96,000)
A short dip to $94,700 (200-day MA) and then to $92,000 (buy-order cluster) is possible. Such a “soft correction” would relieve short-term overbought conditions after the ATH and give the metric a chance to bounce from local lows.
Conclusion:
Most likely: Trading between $95K – $105K with a gradual “cooling-off” of on-chain activity.
Alternative: A brief pullback to $92K – $94K to relieve overbought conditions and set up for a rebound.
I'd like to remind you that each week I publish a detailed review on Substack, where I analyze not only on-chain data, but also macroeconomics, stocks, futures, and news from the past week, providing practical recommendations for Bitcoin. You can subscribe here: adlerinsight.com
Good luck,
AAJ
Written by AxelAdlerJr
