When I look at the Bitcoin MVRV metric over the long term, its relationship with the 365-day moving average (SMA365) really stands out. Historically, whenever MVRV crosses above its SMA365 and holds that level with weekly closes, we often see strong upward trends in Bitcoin.
Take the most recent case:
On April 30, 2025, the MVRV broke above the SMA365 — BTC jumped from 94K to 111K and printed a new ATH shortly after.
Now? The metric is hovering at 2.36, clearly above the SMA365 at 2.14. But we’ve got one big test ahead: the long-standing resistance level at 2.93.
So, could this be the cycle where the MVRV finally breaks its multi-year downtrend?
With rising adoption and a much larger market cap, the MVRV’s room for explosive moves is narrowing. But reaching this level now makes me consider reducing risk — the market’s heating up, and MVRV’s behavior might be our early warning sign.
Written by burakkesmeci
