Anndy Lian
Global markets react to Trump’s crypto dinner and Bitcoin’s record high
Global markets are navigating a labyrinth of economic, political, and monetary challenges, each influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics profoundly. Following a rally across the curve on Thursday driven by moderating fiscal concerns, the recent stabilisation of US Treasuries suggests a tentative calm amidst a broader storm.
US equity indices reflected this cautious mood, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remaining flat, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a modest gain of 0.3 per cent. Asian equity indices were mostly higher in early trading, and US equity futures hinted at a slight opening increase of 0.1 per cent, signalling a fragile optimism.
However, beneath this surface calm lies a web of anxieties, centred primarily on the fiscal health of the United States, the world’s largest economy. Moody’s Ratings’ downgrade of the US credit rating last week has intensified these concerns, serving as a stark warning about the nation’s mounting debt. Adding fuel to the fire, President Donald Trump’s tax bill, narrowly passed by the House, has raised fears of ballooning deficits.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s potential policy shifts and a dramatic surge in Bitcoin trading volumes introduce additional layers of complexity. This article explores these interconnected developments, offering a detailed examination of their implications for global markets and a perspective on the road ahead.
The bond market has been a focal point of investor unease this week, acting as a barometer of confidence in the US economy. US Treasuries initially rallied as investors sought safety amid fiscal uncertainties, driving yields lower across the curve. However, this safe-haven surge was fleeting, as renewed worries about the US fiscal trajectory triggered volatility.
Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from its top tier was a seismic event, underscoring the risks posed by a national debt that now exceeds US$36 trillion—a figure that has swelled due to years of budget deficits. The passage of Trump’s tax bill, which promises substantial tax cuts without offsetting spending reductions, has deepened these concerns.
Critics warn that this legislation could add trillions to the deficit over the next decade, potentially pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to unsustainable levels. The Congressional Budget Office estimates an additional US$5.2 trillion deficit by 2035 if key provisions are extended, a projection that has rattled investors. This perceived fiscal recklessness prompted a sell-off in Treasuries, driving yields higher as investors demanded greater compensation for risk.
The 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed five per cent, a threshold not crossed in over a year, before moderating slightly. Rising yields increase borrowing costs for the government and ripple through the economy, impacting mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and consumer spending, all of which could amplify economic pressures in an already uncertain environment.
Against this backdrop of fiscal turbulence, the Federal Reserve’s stance has taken on heightened significance. Governor Christopher Waller recently offered a glimpse into the central bank’s strategy, suggesting that interest rates could be lowered in the second half of 2025 if the Trump administration’s tariffs on US trading partners stabilise at around 10 per cent.
This conditional outlook reflects the Fed’s vigilance regarding trade policies that could stoke inflation by raising the cost of imported goods. Lowering rates could soften the economic blow of tariffs, making borrowing cheaper and spurring investment and consumption. Yet, this approach is not without risks.
Rate cuts in an economy already grappling with inflationary pressures—evidenced by rising global commodity prices—could overheat markets, complicating the Fed’s dual mandate of fostering maximum employment and price stability. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has felt the strain, consolidating weekly losses as investors weigh the prospects of rate cuts and fiscal instability.
A weaker dollar could bolster US exports by enhancing competitiveness but also inflate import costs, potentially feeding into domestic price increases. This tightrope walk highlights the Fed’s challenge: supporting growth without igniting an inflationary spiral, all while fiscal policy threatens to undermine monetary efforts.
Beyond the US, inflationary pressures are gaining momentum globally, adding another dimension to the market narrative. In Japan, the key inflation gauge has surged at its fastest pace in two years, propelled by escalating food and energy costs. This uptick has bolstered the yen slightly, as markets speculate that the Bank of Japan may tighten its ultra-accommodative monetary stance to curb price rises. Japan’s inflationary trend mirrors a broader global pattern, fuelled by supply chain bottlenecks, geopolitical uncertainties, and the lingering effects of post-pandemic recovery.
Europe, too, is contending with rising prices, prompting discussions at the European Central Bank about policy adjustments. This synchronised inflationary wave suggests that central banks may need to align their responses to prevent destabilising economic disparities. In the commodities sphere, gold has held firm, trading just below US$3,300 per ounce after a slight 0.6 per cent dip, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset amid US fiscal jitters.
Conversely, Brent crude oil prices slipped 0.7 per cent to around US$85.50 per barrel, reflecting a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran and anticipation of an OPEC+ output increase in July. While lower oil prices might ease some inflationary strain, gold’s resilience signals persistent investor caution, painting a mixed picture of risk appetite and economic stability.
Amid these conventional market currents, the cryptocurrency sector has emerged as a striking counterpoint, with Bitcoin stealing the spotlight. The leading virtual currency soared to a record high near US$112,000 on Thursday, buoyed by a dramatic surge in trading activity.
Bitcoin futures trading volume spiked to over US$203 billion on Wednesday—the third-highest daily total in 2025—while spot trading volume hit a two-day peak of US$150 billion, the highest in nearly two months, according to CoinMarketCap. Several forces are driving this frenzy. The US fiscal concerns and a softening dollar have pushed investors toward alternatives perceived as hedges against inflation and currency depreciation, with Bitcoin often likened to “digital gold.”
Additionally, the low-interest-rate environment has fuelled a quest for yield, drawing capital into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. The timing of Bitcoin’s ascent coincides with a high-profile event: President Trump’s dinner for top holders of his TRUMP meme coin, held Thursday at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C. This gathering, potentially hosting up to 220 attendees, with the top 25 earning a White House tour, has sparked intrigue and controversy.
Bloomberg reports that 19 of these top 25 holders are based outside the US, raising national security and ethical questions about foreign influence in a politically charged crypto venture. Notable attendees include Justin Sun, founder of the Tron blockchain, who has clashed with US regulators over allegations of unregistered securities sales and market manipulation, and who claims to be the top TRUMP holder after a US$75 million investment in the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial platform.
Other guests, such as Singapore’s MemeCore and an Australian crypto entrepreneur, highlight the global reach of this phenomenon. Technologically, Bitcoin’s momentum is robust: the hourly MACD is accelerating in the bullish zone, and the RSI exceeds 50, signaling strong upward pressure.
Support levels at US$110,000 and US$108,200 provide a cushion, while resistance at US$112,000 and US$113,200 looms as the next test. This technical strength, coupled with macroeconomic and political catalysts, underscores Bitcoin’s growing role in the financial ecosystem.
Reflecting on these developments, the current state of global markets reveals a landscape fraught with both peril and potential. The US fiscal situation, exacerbated by Moody’s downgrade and Trump’s tax bill, has cast a long shadow over investor confidence, evident in the bond market’s turbulence and the dollar’s fragility. The Federal Reserve’s hinted rate cuts introduce a wildcard, balancing tariff-driven inflation risks against growth support, while global inflation—exemplified by Japan’s surge—complicates the monetary picture.
Commodities offer a split verdict: gold’s steadfastness betrays lingering fears, while oil’s retreat hints at easing pressures. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, amplified by trading volumes and political spectacle, signals a shift toward alternative assets, yet its volatility and the ethical quandaries of events like Trump’s dinner temper enthusiasm with caution.
For investors, this environment demands agility—diversifying into safe havens like gold or even cryptocurrencies might mitigate risks, but the latter’s regulatory and security uncertainties warrant restraint.
Looking forward, the trajectory of US fiscal policy, the pace of global inflation, and the maturation of crypto markets will shape the next chapter. For now, global finance remains a high-stakes puzzle, blending opportunity with profound challenges and requiring sharp analysis and measured action from all players involved.
Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-react-to-trumps-crypto-dinner-and-bitcoins-record-high-20250523/
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