Key Takeaways
Fed expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, with CME FedWatch showing a 97% probability of no change.
Jerome Powell’s tone matters more than the decision: A dovish stance could boost BTC and ETH; a hawkish tone may trigger a short-term sell-off.
Bitcoin trades between $115K–$118K as traders derisk ahead of the meeting; Ethereum is testing resistance near $3,800.
White House crypto policy report could outline a strategic Bitcoin reserve, adding another potential catalyst.
Today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could be the most important macro event for crypto this quarter, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) traders bracing for volatility.
The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, but the real market mover may be Jerome Powell’s language during his post-meeting press conference.
Why Bitcoin and Ethereum Are Rangebound Before the FOMC
Bitcoin has been trading between $115,000 and $118,000 for days, reflecting traders trimming exposure ahead of the Fed decision. Ethereum is hovering near $3,775, struggling to break overhead resistance.
Data from Coinglass shows $173.8 million in BTC longs liquidated in the past 12 hours, with aggregate open interest dropping by nearly $1 billion since Wall Street opened Tuesday — a sign that markets are derisking.
“Typical pre-FOMC behavior — traders reduce leverage and sit on the sidelines until Powell speaks,” one market analyst said.
Trump vs. Powell Adds Political Drama
President Donald Trump has applied heavy pressure on Powell to cut rates — or resign — ahead of today’s meeting, injecting political tension into what’s usually a technical monetary policy decision.
Trump even met Powell recently, shifting from calling him “an idiot” to describing him as “a good man,” but his stance remains clear: he wants rates cut now to boost the economy.
Despite the pressure, the Fed is unlikely to make an immediate move. CME FedWatch shows a 97.9% chance of no change today, but markets are already pricing in two cuts by December.
How Powell’s Words Could Move Crypto
While rates will likely remain on hold, Powell’s tone will dictate crypto’s next move:
Dovish Powell → hints at September cuts → BTC & ETH rally
Hawkish Powell → signals longer pause → BTC could dip 5–10%
Analysts warn that even one unexpected word could trigger a fast Bitcoin move.
“A softer stance could unleash capital into Bitcoin and Ethereum quickly,” a macro trader said. “But hawkish comments would hurt risk assets immediately.”
White House Crypto Report Could Add Fuel
On top of the Fed drama, the White House is set to release a long-awaited crypto policy report today.
It’s expected to include details about the U.S. government’s Bitcoin holdings and potentially a plan for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. A supportive stance could provide an extra bullish catalyst for BTC and ETH.
What’s Next for Bitcoin and Ethereum?
BTC remains rangebound now, but traders are watching:
Upside: A break above $120K could open the door to $125K–$130K.
Downside: A break below $114K could lead to a $110K retest.
ETH is facing heavy resistance at $3,800–$4,000. If Powell delivers dovish hints, analysts expect ETH to “sweep” liquidity above $4K.
