According to BlockBeats, QCP released a market report highlighting an unexpected increase in employment, boosting risk sentiment ahead of the crucial non-farm payroll data release on Friday. The S&P 500 index is approaching the significant psychological level of 6000 points. Stable non-farm payroll data will reinforce the Federal Reserve's narrative of labor market resilience, further solidifying expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged.
In trade matters, the market is adopting a cautious stance ahead of anticipated U.S.-China talks. Bitcoin's front-end volatility has eased, with spot prices stabilizing around the familiar $105,000 mark; the one-month implied volatility has dropped below 40. Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, with light positioning and normalized skew indicating a lack of directional conviction. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from mid to back-end, reflecting a similar decline in the VIX, prompting opportunistic long volatility trades. Notably, September $130,000 call options were purchased at a volatility of 47, indicating localized bullish interest for the third quarter.
Looking ahead, the third quarter may present more challenges. Tariff-related impacts might start to permeate macroeconomic data, while fiscal risks surrounding the "Build Back Better Act" (BBB) and the debt ceiling could lead to headline volatility. In the absence of clear catalysts, Bitcoin is unlikely to significantly break out of its current range.
