yen

The Japanese yen surged sharply early Monday, surprising traders just hours after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling party suffered a historic setback in the July 20 upper house election. Rather than triggering panic, the defeat spurred renewed demand for the yen as a global safe haven amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
At 11:00 a.m. Tokyo time (10:00 p.m. ET on Sunday), the yen climbed 0.22% against the U.S. dollar to 148.49, rebounding after two consecutive weeks of losses. Investors had been bracing for political instability, but the market’s reaction suggests that risk aversion has now taken center stage.

Investors Seek Safety as Global Risks Rise
The yen’s rise reflects a flight to safety in a volatile global environment. With mounting trade tensions and political shocks, investors appear to be gravitating toward stable, low-risk assets—and the Japanese currency fits that profile. The Asia-Pacific region kicked off the week with choppy trading, shaped by central bank signals and geopolitical headlines.

China Holds Loan Rates Steady as Yuan Flatlines
China's central bank kept both one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged on Monday, offering no fresh stimulus. The offshore yuan barely moved, gaining only 0.02% to reach 7.1788 per dollar by 9:50 a.m. local time. The message from Beijing was clear: no surprises, no rate cuts—at least for now.
Despite caution, Chinese stocks opened the week in positive territory. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.55%, while the mainland’s CSI 300 index gained 0.28%. However, optimism remained muted, with external threats like U.S. trade policies still dominating market sentiment.

U.S. Trade Deadline Looms, Asia Watches Closely
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reiterated on Sunday that August 1 would be a “hard deadline” for countries to start paying tariffs. While he suggested that negotiations could still occur afterward, the tone signaled that there would be costs. This stance added new stress for Asian exporters, with traders trying to assess just how far Washington will go.

Singapore Dollar Under Pressure as Stocks Extend Gains
The Singapore dollar came under additional pressure Monday as new tariff threats from the White House—particularly targeting pharmaceuticals and semiconductors—fueled fresh worries. These two industries are among Singapore’s top exports, and analysts from Barclays and Asia Decoded now predict that the Monetary Authority of Singapore could ease its currency policy as early as this month.
Despite currency stress, Singapore’s Straits Times Index recorded its 11th consecutive gain, reaching a new high of 4,225.79 before slightly retreating to 4,215.22 by 10:10 a.m. local time. The biggest gains came from utilities, finance, and real estate sectors. Top-performing stocks included Mapletree Logistics Trust (+1.69%), Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (+1.67%), and Keppel (+1.36%).

India Lags Behind, Crypto Holds Steady
In contrast, Indian markets failed to mirror the regional uptick. The Nifty 50 Sensex fell 0.26% by 9:30 a.m. IST, highlighting persistent uncertainty and uneven investor sentiment across Asia.
Cryptocurrencies also saw modest gains. Bitcoin rose 0.21% to $118,368.56 by 12:16 p.m. Singapore time. After a volatile previous week, even small upward moves are helping to retain bullish interest among digital asset traders.

#Japan , #yen , #Asia , #globaleconomy , #CryptoMarket

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

#yen Sebagian besar mata uang Asia bergerak turun dalam perdagangan yang tipis karena libur pada hari Kamis, sementara dolar pulih secara marjinal dari kerugian besar sepanjang April, dan yen Jepang melemah setelah Bank of Japan mempertahankan suku bunga tidak berubah tetapi memangkas perkiraan pertumbuhan.
Dolar Australia menguat setelah neraca perdagangan Maret yang lebih kuat dari perkiraan, meskipun analis meragukan bahwa kinerja perdagangan ini akan berlanjut, terutama menghadapi tarif AS yang tinggi.
Sebagian besar pasar utama di Asia, termasuk China, tutup untuk libur Hari Buruh, yang membuat volume perdagangan regional sepi.
Dolar menguat meskipun data menunjukkan perlambatan tak terduga dalam ekonomi AS pada kuartal pertama, di tengah ketidakpastian yang meningkat mengenai agenda perdagangan dan ekonomi Presiden Donald Trump. Data lain menunjukkan inflasi AS tetap tinggi.
Greenback masih tetap berada di dekat level terendah tiga tahun terakhir.

Yen Jepang melemah setelah BOJ pertahankan suku bunga, pangkas perkiraan pertumbuhan

Pasangan yen Jepang USDJPY naik 0,5% setelah BOJ mempertahankan suku bunga tidak berubah, seperti yang diperkirakan secara luas.
Namun pembuat kebijakan BOJ memangkas perkiraan mereka untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi di tahun berjalan, mengutip ketidakpastian ekonomi yang meningkat akibat tarif perdagangan AS. Pembuat kebijakan kini memperkirakan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto sebesar 0,4% hingga 0,6% pada tahun fiskal 2025, jauh lebih rendah dari perkiraan sebelumnya sebesar 0,9% hingga 1,1%. Mereka juga menurunkan ekspektasi untuk inflasi indeks harga konsumen inti, mengutip ekspektasi moderasi dalam ekonomi Jepang.
Komentar BOJ dipersepsikan sebagai cenderung dovish oleh pasar, memicu keraguan yang meningkat mengenai kapan bank sentral berencana untuk menaikkan suku bunga lebih lanjut. Taruhan pada kenaikan suku bunga Juni atau Juli kemungkinan akan turun setelah pengumuman Kamis.
Hal ini memberikan tekanan jangka pendek pada yen. Tetapi mata uang tersebut masih berada dalam tren kuat sepanjang April, karena mendapat manfaat dari peningkatan permintaan safe haven.

Dolar menguat di tengah PDB yang lemah, inflasi yang tetap tinggi

Indeks dolar dollar index dan futures indeks dolar dollar index futures masing-masing naik 0,2% dan 0,4% dalam perdagangan Asia pada hari Rabu.
Penguatan greenback terjadi karena data indeks harga PCE PCE price index - yang merupakan tolok ukur inflasi pilihan Federal Reserve - terbaca lebih kuat dari yang diperkirakan untuk kuartal pertama, meskipun harga terlihat memoderasi pada Maret.
Tetapi pembacaan tersebut sebagian besar tertutupi oleh data GDP yang menunjukkan penurunan pertumbuhan yang tidak terduga pada kuartal pertama, karena ketidakpastian atas kebijakan Trump memukul pengeluaran.
Pejabat perdagangan utama Trump mengatakan pada hari Rabu bahwa negosiasi perdagangan dengan China belum berlangsung, menandakan sedikit keringanan jangka pendek bagi pasar dari perang dagang yang sengit antara ekonomi terbesar dunia.
Mata uang Asia secara lebih luas melemah dalam perdagangan yang tipis karena libur, meskipun dolar Australia menjadi pengecualian. Pasangan AUDUSD naik 0,2% karena data menunjukkan neraca perdagangan Australia tumbuh jauh lebih dari yang diperkirakan pada Maret, meskipun ini sebagian besar dikaitkan dengan front-loading ekspor sebelum pengenaan peningkatan tarif perdagangan AS.
Pasangan yuan China offshore USDCNH naik 0,1%, sementara pasangan dolar Singapura USDSGD bertambah 0,2%.

Ben Laidler, estratega de mercados globales de la plataforma de inversión y trading eToro analiza el comportamiento de las principales divisas, siendo el dólar “la que mejor se comporta del G10 este año, ya que los mercados reaccionan ante una mayor fortaleza del crecimiento estadounidense y una inflación más sólida”.  “La libra esterlina tiene mucho en común con el dólar y se ha mantenido a la par, mientras que el yen ha dado un rodeo y ha sido el gran rezagado”, señala.

El dólar está bien valorado mientras aumentan las diferencias macroeconómicas
RALLY:
El dólar está cerca de su nivel más alto desde noviembre y es la divisa del G10 que mejor se comporta este año, ya que los mercados reaccionan ante una mayor fortaleza del crecimiento estadounidense y una inflación más sólida, lo que hace subir los rendimientos de los bonos y amplía los diferenciales.
Esto ha retrasado el inicio y suavizado la magnitud de los recortes previstos de los tipos de interés estadounidenses este año. Este excepcionalismo de EE UU está ahora mejor valorado, ya que gran parte del rendimiento superior del dólar ha quedado atrás y las repercusiones sobre las materias primas y los mercados emergentes son limitadas.
Sin embargo, las condiciones son divergentes y pueden provocar una mayor dispersión de las divisas. La libra esterlina tiene mucho en común con el dólar y se ha mantenido a la par, mientras que el yen ha dado un rodeo y ha sido el gran rezagado. Nueva Zelanda está preparada para más subidas, pero Suiza y el BCE son los primeros en recortar.
GBP:
La libra esterlina ha sido el "dólar de Europa", y está igualmente sobrevalorada en un 7%. El superconsumidor del Reino Unido ha amortiguado su recesión técnica, mientras que la inflación sigue duplicando el objetivo, lo que da al Banco de Inglaterra munición de sobra para oponerse a las esperanzas del mercado de una pronta bajada de tipos.
El rendimiento superior de la GBP contrasta claramente con el rendimiento inferior y la tendencia bajista de otros activos del Reino Unido, y ha minado las grandes capitalizaciones del FTSE 100, centradas en las ventas al extranjero.
El "presupuesto de primavera" del 6 de marzo es el próximo catalizador y puede ser positivo para la GBP si vemos recortes de impuestos bien calibrados, mientras que los riesgos de las elecciones de octubre probablemente se descarten con los laboristas 20 puntos por delante en las encuestas y desplazados al centro.
JPY:
Se ha reanudado el bajo rendimiento del yen, ya que el excepcionalismo del crecimiento estadounidense se ha unido a la lentitud del Banco de Japón en la normalización de su política monetaria.
El USD/JPY ha vuelto a romper por debajo del nivel psicológico de 150, lo que ha provocado la intervención verbal de las autoridades. Pero es poco probable que se produzca una intervención más contundente, dados los factores fundamentales y el hecho de que no es probable que se produzca una subida de tipos hasta mediados de año, desde el actual nivel del -0,1%.
El yen es la divisa más barata del mundo y está infravalorada aproximadamente un 25% en términos de tipo de cambio efectivo real. La debilidad ha dado un nuevo impulso al Nikkei255, que se acerca ahora a su máximo histórico de 1989, impulsado por un crecimiento de las exportaciones cercano al 10%.
Este contenido tiene fines informativos y educativos únicamente y no debe considerarse como un asesoramiento de inversión o una recomendación de inversión. El rendimiento pasado no es una indicación de los resultados futuros. Los CFDs son productos apalancados y conllevan un alto riesgo para su capital
#dolar #yen #libra #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH $USDC

A similar yen outperformance early this month triggered carry unwind and rocked risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The FX market shows a renewed bias for anti-risk Japanese yen.
A similar yen outperformance early this month, triggered carry unwind and rocked risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.Some observers fear another round of carry unwind in the near future.The Japanese yen (JPY) is rallying against the U.S. dollar (USD), outperforming other fiat currencies in a redux of early August market action that was characterized by sharp losses in global stock markets and bitcoin (BTC).Since late Thursday, the yen has strengthened 2.4% to 145 per dollar, aborting a weakening bounce from the Aug. 5 low of 141.68 in a sign of renewed bias for the "anti-risk" currency. Against the Australian dollar, a barometer of risk appetite, the yen has strengthened over 1%. It's showing even greater vitality against the euro and British pound.The activity in the foreign exchange market is reminiscent of the yen's outperformance at the end of July and early this month that catalyzed the unwinding of carry trades, or bullish risk-on bets, financed by relatively cheap yen-denominated loans as it became more expensive to borrow the Japanese currency.The resulting lowering of risk exposure in traditional markets also weighed on bitcoin and the wider crypto market. BTC fell from roughly $70,000 to $50,000 in the eight days to Aug. 5 before recovering to $60,000 alongside a bounce in the USD/JPY."Yen strength is causing a negative feedback loop as stops get triggered and overstretched carry positions get unwound. This is rattling positioning in global risk assets," famous trader Simon Ree said on X at the time.In his latest commentary, Andrei Kazantsev, the head of Goldman Sachs' crypto-linked trading desk, echoed Ree's comments, explaining how bitcoin and ether were caught in the yen carry trade unwind and the global VAR shock of Aug. 5. VAR, or value at risk, is the maximum amount of loss a market can sustain over a period of time. A sudden jump forces traders to scale back exposure to relatively risky assets.Thus, the renewed yen strength warrants attention from crypto traders. According to ING, the yen's rally to 141.68 per dollar from 161 in the three weeks to Aug. 5 has set the tone for yen buying on dips."A 20-big figure drop in USD/JPY we believe will have a meaningful impact on expectations for future direction and therefore potentially on behavior,' ING said in a note to clients on Aug. 16. "Behavioral changes likely mean a greater willingness to buy yen at weaker levels, skewing the risk to a strengthening bias."Some observers, however, say that the carry trade unwind could resume in the coming weeks spurred by the U.S. economy and the next interest-rate decision meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), scheduled for mid-September.The FFFs [Fed funds futures] currently predict a 50% chance of a 50-bps hike in September; however, we expect these odds to decrease as we approach the FOMC meeting due to generally acceptable economic data. Should the Fed cut by 50 bps, however, we think the market’s reaction will be positive initially, but a sell-off could ensue as concerns about the economy and strength in the Yen will revive the carry trade unwinds," Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, said in an email. $USDC #yen #PowellAtJacksonHole #CryptoMarketMoves #MarketDownturn #Write2Earn!

Japan’s Metaplanet said Monday it had purchased another 1,241 bitcoin ($BTC ), bringing total holdings to nearly 6,800.
What to know:
Metaplanet has purchased 1,241 #bitcoin for 18.4 billion yen, increasing its total holdings to 6,796 BTC.
The firm's latest acquisition surpasses El Salvador's bitcoin stash and marks its most aggressive purchase since April 2024.
Metaplanet aims to reach 10,000 $BTC by the end of 2025, following a strategy similar to MicroStrategy's high-conviction accumulation.
Tokyo-listed investment firm Metaplanet has added another 1,241 bitcoin ($BTC ) to its treasury, spending 18.4 billion #yen (or $126 million at currency exchange rates) in its latest purchase, per a Monday disclosure.
The acquisition brings Metaplanet’s total holdings to 6,796 #BTC worth over 💸706 million at current market prices. That has sent it above bitcoin-stacking nation El Salvador’s stash of 6,174 #BTC data from the country’s Bitcoin Office shows.
The purchase was made at an average price of just over $102,119 per #bitcoin marking the firm’s most aggressive buy yet since launching its #Bitcoin Treasury Operations in April 2024.
The firm said its #SaylorBTCPurchase Yield, a proprietary performance indicator measuring bitcoin accumulation per share outstanding, stood at 38% for Q2 to date, after reaching 95.6% in Q1 2025 and 309.8% in Q4 2024. This metric, along with BTC Gain and BTC yen Gain, is used to evaluate shareholder value creation through non-dilutive bitcoin growth.
Metaplanet aims to hit 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, with its treasury strategy increasingly mirroring the high-conviction accumulation playbook pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (#MSTR), which holds over 555,000 BTC globally.
Metaplanet remains the largest publicly traded bitcoin holder in Asia and ranks 11th globally, as of Monday.