$DOT I’ve been tracking Polkadot (DOT) closely today, and the "sleeping giant" is officially awake. It just staged a massive breakout, leading the altcoin market with gains of over 23% in the last 24 hours.
After a long period of underperformance, DOT is finally catching a major bid.
Here is what I’m seeing on my screen:
🟢 Why I’m Bullish (The Supply Shock)
To me, the biggest story isn't the price, it's the tokenomics shift. Polkadot is approaching a massive "Halving" on March 14, 2026, which is expected to cut annual token issuance by over 52%. We are seeing the market price in this scarcity right now.
On top of that, the Polkadot L1 Hub launched last month, finally bringing native EVM compatibility to the heart of the network.
This removes the "friction" that kept developers away in the past. Technically, the chart is in a perfect bullish fan: the EMA7 is well above the 25 and 99 averages, and the MACD is showing strong green bars. There are even whispers of institutional ETF filings starting to circulate, which is adding fuel to the fire.
🔴 What Worries Me.
But I have to be the voice of caution, this move has been extremely vertical. My RSI indicators have pushed into extreme overbought territory, which almost always precedes a "cooling off" period.
I also noticed that despite the 23% pump, we saw net total outflows in the last few hours. This tells me that long-term bag holders (who have sat through that 97% drop from the $54 all-time high) are using this rally to finally exit. We also need to see if the network activity actually picks up; technical upgrades are great, but
#dot needs real users to justify a multibillion-dollar valuation in the long run.
My Plan:
I love the "Halving" narrative for March, but I am not chasing a 23% green candle into heavy resistance. I’m going to wait for a retest of the $1.50 level to see if it flips from resistance to support. If the RSI cools down and the volume stays high, I’ll be looking to position myself for the run-up to the March 14th supply cut.