WHY $RIVER IS A RISKY BET UNLESS... 👇👇👇
$RIVER is a risky bet unless a few very specific
things happen and the chart is already warning you.
First, structurally, price is extremely extended
from its mean. Price has gone near-vertical
from the low single digits to the 14–15 zone
without any meaningful higher-timeframe
consolidation. Price is riding a steep trendline,
which looks bullish emotionally, but in market
structure terms this is late-stage expansion,
not early accumulation.
Assets don’t trend forever, they rotate.
When price accelerates faster than value builds,
downside risk increases sharply because
there is no strong demand base underneath
to absorb selling if momentum stalls.
Second, momentum indicators are flashing
exhaustion, not strength. RSI is already in the
low-to-mid 70s, meaning buyers are crowded
and late. At the same time, MACD is elevated
and stretched, which historically signals trend
maturity, not fresh upside. When RSI holds
above 70 during a parabolic move, it doesn’t
mean “more upside guaranteed”, it means any
loss of momentum can trigger aggressive
profit-taking. That’s how sharp pullbacks start.
Third, price is pressing into a logical distribution zone.
This area (14–16) is where early holders,
seed investors, and smart money typically
reduce exposure. They don’t sell at the bottom,
they sell into strength. The long wicks and
hesitation near the trendline already suggest
sell pressure absorbing buy orders.
If that rising trendline breaks, there is very little
structure until much lower levels, which makes
downside moves fast and violent.
Don't short $RIVER just yet, because price
is above the trendline and is potentially faking
in order to sweep up some liquidity or bulls are
eyeing for next leg up. Let the market make its mind
before pulling the trigger. If price dips below $13
then that's a good confirmation that correction
is incoming & we can go short. Take caution. 🙏
DYOR
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