As Bitcoin surges past $110,000, you’d expect altcoins to follow — but they haven’t.
Despite Ethereum posting strong gains, broader altcoins are underperforming. So, what’s really going on?
I analyzed on-chain data, ETF flows, whale activity, liquidity zones, and macro factors — and the conclusion is clear:
👉 We are still in the Bitcoin phase of the cycle. Here's why 👇
🔹 1. Bitcoin vs Altcoins: Price Action Disconnect
BTC: +18.14% (30-day increase)ETH: +48.55% (strong outperformance)Altcoins: Mostly flat
The usual rotation — BTC → ETH → Altcoins — has only reached the second stage.
📊 Market positioning is still cautious:
Longs: $2.87B (48.7%)Shorts: $3.03B (51.3%)
🔹 2. BTC Dominance: Still Too High for Altseason
Current dominance: 62.66%
Typical threshold for altseason: < 55%
🕰️ Historical context:
2017 altseason → BTC dominance dropped to 41%2024 = 57%
Now = climbing higher
Conclusion: We’re not in altseason territory yet.
🔹 3. Whale Behavior: BTC is King (for Now)
🐋 Whale portfolio allocation:
BTC/Altcoin ratio: 1.23 (BTC overweighted)
Leverage:
BTC: 25.51xAltcoins: 11.75x (54% lower)
Top 10 whales:
9 prefer BTCSelective accumulation in SOL, HYPE — not broad altcoin exposureETH remains underweight compared to BTC in most whale wallets.
🔹 4. Liquidity Zones: The Market Is Range-Bound
Bitcoin
$BTC Major support: $105K–$106KResistance: $112K–$112.25K
Ethereum
$ETH Support: $2,432–$2,448Resistance: $2,520–$2,592
Altcoin price action is trapped between tight liquidity bands — until we see breakouts, big moves remain unlikely.
🔹 5. Macro Conditions: Neutral to Supportive
🌍 Recent data:
UK CPI: 3.5% (above forecast)Crude Oil Inventories: +1.328M (vs -0.9M forecast)
💼 Market sentiment is cautiously bullish with high anticipation for:
U.S. Jobless ClaimsU.S. Manufacturing PMI
🔹 6. Institutional Capital: Bitcoin-First Mentality
BTC ETF daily inflows: +$667.4MiShares (IBIT): $45.9B in total AUMETH ETFs? Still struggling to gain traction
📈 The narrative and money are still flowing into Bitcoin ETFs — not altcoin products (yet).
🔹 7. Sentiment & Social Signals
📢 Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube are buzzing with:
Excitement over ETF inflowsFrustration over delayed altcoin gainsHope that ETH’s strength = altseason soonReality? The sentiment is warming, but rotation hasn’t fully kicked off.
📌 Summary: Why Altseason Hasn't Happened Yet
BTC dominance too highInstitutions still stacking BTCWhales favor BTC and are using more leverageLiquidity zones are tightMacro + retail sentiment is bullish but earlyThe ETH breakout is a signal — not yet a full catalyst.
📈 What to Watch Next
🧠 Want to know when altseason might actually start?
Here are the leading indicators:
🔻 BTC dominance drops below 55%
⚖️ ETH/BTC ratio surges
🐋 Whales increase altcoin exposure
💧 Altcoin resistance levels break cleanly
💸 Funding rates on BTC cool off (shift to neutral)
When these align, expect the real rotation.
✅ Final Take
Bitcoin’s rally is backed by:
Record ETF inflowsSmart money convictionSolid macro backdrop
Altcoins aren’t lagging forever — they’re waiting their turn.
For now, BTC is leading. But when capital rotates...
🪙 The altcoin season will come fast — and hit hard.
#Bitcoin #Altcoins #CryptoMarket #Altseason #BinanceSquare