CryptoAnalysis

$BTC never lets us forget its true nature. After a dynamic rally that pushed it close to $117,000, the market has now entered what can only be described as the “spring compression” phase. Today, August 26, 2025, the price hovers around $110,150, and the charts paint a picture of silence before the storm.
🌑 Silence on the Short Wave (1H)
On the 1-hour timeframe, the candles sketch a true portrait of uncertainty:
small bodies, long wicks — as if the market is probing both sides, searching for weakness. RSI balances on the edge of 50, while MACD is almost asleep, waiting for a signal. Bollinger Bands tighten like a rope ready to snap.
In the background, the hand of the buyers is visible: every dip toward $109,600 is immediately absorbed. But when $BTC tries to climb above $112,000, the volume fades. This is the theater of accumulation — a silent battle whose outcome will only be revealed when someone breaks the balance.
🌒 The Mid-Term Stage (4H)
On the 4-hour chart, $BTC plays a different tune.
Here, the story takes the form of a bull flag — a textbook pattern of a market catching its breath before another sprint. RSI builds higher lows, like the steps of a climber preparing for the summit attack. MACD remains silent, and Bollinger Bands squeeze tighter, signaling imminent release.
The key battlefield? The zone of $110,100–$110,700. This is the center of gravity where the fiercest fight is taking place.
🌕 Yesterday’s Episode
August 25 brought a small-scale drama.
The price dipped to $108,900, but instead of panic, long lower wicks appeared — evidence that bulls were aggressively buying every drop of supply. Selling volume was high, but not enough to break the market. On-chain, whales shuffled thousands of BTC, mixing the cards on the table, leaving traders guessing whether it was redistribution or accumulation.
🌔 The Forecast: Two Paths
The bullish scenario is a tale of patience.
If the defense of $110,400 and the golden pocket at $108,800 holds, Bitcoin has a chance to retest $112k, then $117k. Breaking that barrier opens the gates to the legendary levels of $120k, $122k, even $125k. This is the story of strength born in silence.
The bearish scenario is the tale of decline.
If the 61.8% #Fibonacci fails, the price could slide toward $106.6k, and from there even down to $103k. A journey through darkness, where panic and selling volume play the leading roles.
🌟 Traders’ Choice
For bulls: the opportunity lies in patience — entries around $110.2k–$110.5k, with a stop just below $109.6k, could reward them with a trip toward $117k.For bears: they await signs of weakness — a close below $108.8k would open the gates toward $106k and lower.
Every decision is a choice of path in this unfolding story.
🔥 Where Is Bitcoin Headed?
Today, Bitcoin stands at what we can call the “pause before the new chapter.”
Every hour spent consolidating under $112k adds more tension to the spring.
The question is no longer if the move will happen.
The question is which direction the spring will snap.
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🔹 Current Market (1H & 4H)
1H timeframe – intraday behavior
$ETH spent the last hours in the $4,550–$4,950 range, which in practice is a relatively narrow consolidation band considering ETH’s usual volatility. The candlestick structure clearly signals indecision – many candles have short bodies and long wicks, which indicates classic “liquidity hunting” on both sides of the market. This suggests that both buyers and sellers are still testing their strength, but neither side has gained a clear advantage yet.
RSI (1H): currently holds in the neutral zone (48–52). However, a closer look shows RSI has been forming higher lows for several days. This is subtle but important – demand is gradually gaining initiative, even if the price has not yet fully reflected it. If RSI breaks above 55, it will be the first intraday signal that bulls are preparing for an upward move.MACD (1H): both lines are almost overlapping, with the histogram essentially flat. This is a classic compression setup, when the market is storing energy for a larger breakout. The first visible deviation of the histogram from zero may mark the start of a move.Bollinger Bands (1H): the bands are narrowing, and candles are sticking to the SMA20 – this setup indicates the market is “suffocating” and must soon choose a direction. From experience, the longer such narrowing lasts, the stronger the breakout that follows.EMA (1H): the price remains above EMA50, suggesting that the short-term uptrend is still intact. Each time price dips toward the EMA200 zone (~$4,55x), buyers immediately step in – this moving average acts as a dynamic lifeline.Volume (1H): notable is that dips to $4,550–$4,600 are bought with higher volume, while breakout attempts above $4,900 occur with decreasing volume. This means accumulation continues, but bulls are still waiting for a confirming impulse.
4H timeframe – mid-term structure
On the 4-hour chart, $ETH is drawing a classic bull flag after the rally from $4,300 to $4,950. This is a very characteristic formation where the market “catches its breath” after a strong impulse and prepares for a potential continuation.
RSI (4H): balances around 50–52, i.e., equilibrium. But similar to the lower timeframe, higher RSI lows can be observed – indicating building buying pressure. If RSI breaks above 57–60, it may signal readiness for a push toward new highs.MACD (4H): has been in balance for a while – MACD lines are running parallel, and the histogram shows no clear signals. Statistically, such periods often end with a sharp move in one direction.Bollinger Bands (4H): the bands have narrowed significantly, confirming volatility compression. Any 4H close outside the bands (up or down) could be a reliable signal of a new directional move.EMA (4H): the price holds above EMA200, clearly confirming medium-term bullish dominance. EMA50 is approaching price, suggesting that a retest of this level may provide the next impulse for another wave up.Volume Profile (VPVR 4H): the Point of Control is visible around $4,62x–$4,65x – the current equilibrium zone. Above $4,95x–$5,00x, a “low-volume node” appears, meaning that once this barrier breaks, the move toward $5,20x could be very rapid.
📌 Section Summary: $ETH is in a “spring compression” state. Each hour of consolidation under $5,000 increases the probability of a breakout – and once it happens, it will likely be strong and dynamic.
🔹 Fibonacci Analysis (swing $4,300 → $4,950)
23.6% retracement (~$4,797): a local area where bulls tried to defend price, but not a key level.38.2% retracement (~$4,702): important test – acted as short-term support several times.50% retracement (~$4,625): the balance midpoint; price is currently battling around it.61.8% retracement (~$4,548): the golden pocket – losing it would signal a shift toward bearish narrative.78.6% retracement (~$4,440): the last line of defense; a breakdown would open the way toward $4,300.
Fibo Extensions (upside targets if breakout occurs):
1.272 ≈ $5,200 – first post-breakout target.1.414 ≈ $5,500 – zone where trend acceleration usually happens.1.618 ≈ $5,800 – golden extension target; often where profit-taking begins.2.0 ≈ $6,200 – ambitious level, possible with strong bullish momentum and volume.
📌 Conclusion: The $4,550–$4,625 zone (Golden Pocket and 50%) is absolutely crucial for bulls. Defending it allows for an attack on $5,000 and higher; losing it opens the door to a deeper decline.
🔹 Yesterday’s Recap (August 24)
Yesterday ETH set a new high at $4,946, breaking the 2021 ATH of $4,884.
Candles: long upper wicks appeared – a classic signal of profit-taking and buyer exhaustion.Volume: during the pullback, volume was high but not panic-level – suggesting profit-taking rather than capitulation.On-chain: large wallets (whales) used the dip for accumulation – over 350,000 ETH were scooped up within 24h.
🔹 Forecast – Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario – “The Breakout Play”
If ETH manages to hold the $4,600–$4,650 zone and breaks above the $4,950–$5,000 resistance area on rising volume, it would generate a classical breakout setup. Both the technical trigger (breaking resistance) and the psychological trigger (reclaiming the $5,000 level, beyond 2021’s ATH) would reinforce bullish sentiment.
$5,200 (1.272 Fibo) → first target, where short-term profit-taking usually occurs.$5,500 (1.414 Fibo) → where trend acceleration and FOMO from latecomers often appear.$5,800 (1.618 Fibo) → the “golden extension target,” usually followed by euphoria.$6,200 (2.0 Fibo) → an ambitious projection, achievable with strong fundamentals (ETF inflows, positive on-chain activity, supply burns).
Market psychology: In this bullish scenario, ETH would become a narrative leader. The media would amplify the “Ethereum to $6K” story, traders would add longs, and whales would reinforce accumulation. Breakout retests (e.g., $5,000 flipped into support) would attract institutional buying.
Bearish Scenario – “The Rejection Trap”
If ETH fails to defend $4,600–$4,650 and closes below it on strong 4H selling volume, the market narrative flips from “ready to break $5K” to “failed breakout attempt.”
$4,548 (61.8% Fibo, Golden Pocket) → first line of defense. If it breaks, selling pressure accelerates.$4,440 (78.6% Fibo) → last potential support before a deeper retracement.$4,300 → full retracement of the bullish leg; losing it shifts mid-term outlook bearish.
Market psychology: A rejection at $5,000 would trigger fear, especially among traders who entered late longs. Stop-loss cascades and forced long liquidations could accelerate the move. ETH has shown similar false breakouts in May 2021 and November 2021 – both followed by sharp retracements.
🔹 Long Scenario
🎯 Aggressive Entry – Playing the Support Bounce
Entry: $4,600–$4,650, but only with candlestick confirmation (e.g., pinbar with a long lower wick).Stop Loss: below $4,550 (beneath Golden Pocket and EMA200 on 1H).Take Profits:TP1: $4,950–$5,000 (psychological barrier).TP2: $5,200 (1.272).TP3: $5,500–$5,800 (extensions).
Comment: aggressive entry offers better R:R but carries higher risk of “catching a falling knife” if support fails.
🎯 Conservative Entry – Waiting for Breakout Retest
Entry: after a confirmed H4 close above $5,000 and successful retest as support.Stop Loss: below $4,920 (beneath the retest candle).Take Profits:TP1: $5,200TP2: $5,500TP3: $5,800–$6,200
Comment: this approach minimizes false breakout risk. Downsides are late entry and smaller profit margin, but confidence in trend continuation is stronger.
🔹 Short Scenario
🎯 Breakdown Setup – Playing the Breakdown of Support
Entry: below $4,600 after confirmed 1H/4H close on high selling volume.Stop Loss: above $4,680.Take Profits:TP1: $4,548TP2: $4,440TP3: $4,300
Comment: patience is key – many false breakdowns occur at $4,600. Traders should wait for volume confirmation.
🎯 Counter-Short – Fading the Exhaustion
Entry: after a false breakout above $5,000 followed by a sharp rejection (e.g., candle with long upper wick).Stop Loss: above $5,250.Take Profits:TP1: $4,950TP2: $4,700TP3: $4,600
Comment: counter-shorts are high-risk/high-reward setups. They rely on exploiting herd psychology — entering when most traders FOMO into longs. Suitable only for experienced traders.
🔹 Summary
Ethereum is at a critical decision point. Price action remains above EMA200 and Golden Pocket, signaling bulls still control the mid-term trend. However, repeated failures at $5,000 show strong overhead supply.
Bullish view: defending $4,600 and breaking $5,000 opens the path toward $5,200–$5,800, with $6,200 as an ambitious target.Bearish view: losing $4,600 and $4,550 exposes ETH to a correction toward $4,440 and $4,300.Neutral view: the market is in compression mode – better to wait for confirmed breakout/breakdown with volume.
📌 Psychology: Traders are split. Bulls see ETH as ready for new highs; bears highlight rejection patterns. This tension builds potential energy — once broken, the move will likely be explosive.

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Shiba Inu may be entering the final stage of a prolonged consolidation, potentially paving the way for a dramatic surge. If history doesn’t repeat but “rhymes,” one of the most popular meme coins could soon see a parabolic expansion and a push toward a new all-time high (ATH).

A Repeating Pattern on the Chart
Analyst Kamran Asghar highlighted a striking pattern visible on Shiba Inu’s weekly chart since 2021. Each time the coin went through a long phase of accumulation within a rectangular range, it was followed by a breakout and massive price surge. This cycle has already happened twice, and according to Asghar, it could happen again.
In 2021, consolidation led to an explosive rally.In 2024, after months of accumulation until February, SHIB surged 501% in March, reaching a peak of $0.00004563.

Is the Current Phase Ending?
After dropping to $0.00001471 in late January, Shiba Inu entered another accumulation phase. Since then, it has moved within a tight range, but Asghar believes this stage may be coming to an end.
If a breakout occurs, he expects a parabolic rally that could push SHIB to unprecedented levels.

New Targets: Up to 619% Growth
Based on his analysis, Asghar set a target around $0.0000900, which would represent a 619% increase from the current price of $0.0000251. Such a rise would not only surpass all previous highs but also mark the most significant expansion in Shiba Inu’s history.
Interestingly, a recent analysis pointed to the same $0.000090 target, citing a Changelly forecast suggesting that Shiba Inu could reach this level by the end of 2028.

Shiba Inu Aiming Higher
If the historical pattern holds true and the consolidation phase ends, Shiba Inu could embark on a rally that exceeds all expectations. With its active community and growing investor support, SHIB remains one of the most closely watched assets in the crypto market.

#SHIB , #shibaInu , #CryptoAnalysis , #memecoin , #Shibarium

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