When October began, everyone was fired up for “Uptober.” But as soon as a couple of red candles appeared, panic spread across the market like wildfire. Suddenly, people started calling the top, saying the rally was over.
$BTC Here’s the truth: no one actually knows when the market tops or bottoms. Every peak and crash in history has caught most traders by surprise. Those who claim to “know” what’s coming next are just making educated guesses. Sometimes they’re right, most times they’re not. So, remember—certainty in crypto is an illusion.
In this article, we’ll break down whether Bitcoin is entering a bear market or if the recent dip was just another shakeout before a move higher. Let’s dig into the charts.
📊 BTCUSD (Weekly): Still Structurally Bullish
When analyzing potential bear markets, we look at the higher timeframes first. A bear market isn’t just about price going down—it’s about a structural shift from higher highs to lower lows.
Right now, the weekly chart still shows Bitcoin forming higher highs and higher lows, with the most recent higher low sitting around $98,000–$100,000.
As long as Bitcoin doesn’t close a weekly candle below that zone, the broader trend remains bullish.
So far, there’s no data-driven evidence that we’re entering a bear market—just fear and speculation. The structure still says bullish.
⚡ BTC Weekly SFP: The Fake-Out Zone
The weekly chart just got interesting. Recently, Bitcoin dipped below $107K, but the price quickly recovered, meaning it was likely a fake-out—a common move to grab liquidity before heading higher.
We’ve seen this before. The last major fake-out happened above $125K, and that one triggered a sharp correction. But fake-outs work both ways. Now that we’ve seen one below the lows, it could be setting the stage for a bounce back up, as long as BTC holds above $107K on a weekly close.
That level now acts as a critical base for potential upside.
📅 BTCUSD (Daily): Watching $107K Closely
The daily chart agrees: $107K is key. As long as Bitcoin stays above that level, we could easily see upside toward $115K in the short term.
However, it’s important to note that the daily structure is still bearish, so any pullback should be viewed as an opportunity—not a reason to panic—as long as $107K continues to hold.
💭 Final Thoughts
In summary, Bitcoin remains structurally bullish on higher timeframes. The fake-out below $107K may have been a trap for late bears, setting up a move higher. Unless we see a confirmed breakdown below that level, there’s no reason to turn bearish just yet.
What do you think—are we gearing up for another leg up, or is the market fooling us again?
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