bitcoin

First of all allow me to wish everyone Merry Christmas with Tradingshot's best wishes to everyone for great health and prosperity!
Now as far as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is concerned, this chart on the 1W time-frame displays once more its symmetry among Cycles at its very best.
They key component here is the Supertrend. Every time this indicator turned red (bearish) as it has done now since November 10, BTC has already started its Bear Cycle. The amazing symmetry here is found in the past 5 weeks when the price has been ranging within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
As you can see the moment it broke below the 1W MA100, it also breached the 0.182 Fibonacci retracement level and entered the 0.182 - 0.236 Fib Zone. This has happened every single time with remarkable precision since the 2014 Bear Cycle. The last two Cycles bottomed on the 0.382 Fib at least.
So what does that mean for us now/ today? Well first of all, the current Bear Cycle is likely to reach $56500 (0.382 Fib) at least. Secondly, every Bear Cycle bottomed around 44 - 46 weeks after the Supertrend turned red. This gives us a fair time horizon for the potential bottom around September 14 2026.
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This chart is flashing a bold signal: Bitcoin could be heading toward a macro bottom around $50,000.
Historically, BTC bottoms where fear peaks, sentiment collapses, and most traders are convinced “it’s over.” Structurally, this level aligns with prior high-liquidity zones and long-term support where strong hands typically step in.
If this scenario plays out, it wouldn’t be a sign of weakness it would be a reset before the next major cycle.
So the real question isn’t if $50K happens…
It’s who’s mentally and financially ready if it does?
#BTC #bitcoin #TrumpNewTariffs $BTC $XRP

Bitcoin’s price on Wednesday stands at $87,234, with a market capitalization of $1.74 trillion, reflecting a cautious tone heading into Christmas Eve as 24-hour trading volume clocks in at $36.90 billion and the intraday range stays boxed between $86,713 and $88,091. The numbers suggest bitcoin is pacing itself rather than sprinting, as traders digest mixed signals across timeframes and indicators.

Bitcoin Chart Outlook
On the daily chart, bitcoin remains stuck in a sideways-to-down posture after failing to hold its early December surge toward the mid-$94,000 area. Price action continues to carve out lower highs and lower lows, forming a mild descending channel that signals short-term fatigue rather than outright panic.
Volume has tapered off noticeably, reinforcing the idea that momentum is waning on both sides of the market. Importantly, price has not convincingly breached the $85,000 to $86,000 support zone, which keeps broader consolidation firmly in play instead of a deeper unraveling.
BTC/USD 1-day chart on Dec. 24, 2025.
Zooming into the four-hour chart, the structure leans bearish to neutral following repeated rejections near the $89,000 to $90,000 zone. Lower highs since Dec. 22 and spikes in selling volume on declines show that downside pressure has not fully clocked out for the holidays. That said, price behavior near $86,000 to $87,000 suggests some absorption is taking place, with candles shrinking as volatility cools. Translation: participants are waiting for confirmation, not charging blindly into thin liquidity.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart on Dec. 24, 2025.
The one-hour chart adds nuance rather than drama. Bitcoin has been drifting sideways around $87,000 to $87,500 with low volume and small-bodied candles, a classic sign of short-term exhaustion after a pullback. This kind of compression often precedes a sharper move, though direction remains unresolved. Think coiled spring, not wrapped present. Intraday participants appear content to let price reveal its hand rather than force a narrative.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart on Dec. 24, 2025.
Oscillators on the daily timeframe underscore that theme of indecision. The relative strength index ( RSI) sits at 42, firmly in neutral territory and far from signaling excess in either direction. The Stochastic oscillator at 34, the commodity channel index (CCI) at minus 80, the average directional index (ADX) at 23 and the Awesome oscillator at minus 948 all echo a market lacking strong conviction. Momentum and the moving average convergence divergence ( MACD) do hint at short-term recovery pressure, but those signals are counterbalanced by the broader trend, making this more of a cautious eyebrow raise than a victory lap.
Moving averages (MAs), however, are decidedly less festive. Every major trend gauge, from the exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) across 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 periods, sits above the current price. That alignment reinforces the broader downward bias and confirms that bitcoin is trading below key dynamic resistance levels. Until price reclaims those averages with authority, rallies are likely to be treated with skepticism. In short, bitcoin isn’t breaking down, but it also isn’t handing out gifts just yet.
Bull Verdict:
Bitcoin’s case for upside rests on resilience, not bravado. Price is holding above the critical $85,000 to $86,000 support band while the one-hour and four-hour charts show signs of seller exhaustion and stabilization. Momentum and the moving average convergence divergence ( MACD) both lean constructive in the short term, suggesting room for a relief move if volume returns and nearby resistance levels are challenged. It is not fireworks, but it is steady footing — and in this market, that still counts.
Bear Verdict:
The opposing argument is grounded in trend, and trends tend to win arguments. Bitcoin remains below every major exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA), from the short-term 10-period to the long-term 200-period, reinforcing a dominant downward bias. Daily structure shows lower highs, weakening volume and failed attempts to reclaim higher territory near $90,000 and above. Until price convincingly re-enters that range, rallies risk looking more like seasonal cheer than sustainable strength.
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