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An In-Depth Report on Market Shifts in the Fog of War
Executive Summary: On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, causing a sudden escalation of the Middle East situation. This report combines historical data with the current situation to provide an in-depth analysis of the war's impact on the US economy, global commodities, and the cryptocurrency market, along with three future scenario forecasts.
Published: March 2, 2026 | Sources: PANews, CoinDesk, East Money, iFeng Finance, etc.

1. The Rekindling of War: A Mix of Historical Grievances and Modern Interests
The decades-long tense relationship between the United States and Iran has once again intensified. The outbreak of this conflict is not accidental but the inevitable result of multiple overlapping strategic interests. From the US strategic perspective, this action has three core objectives: seeking absolute dominance in the Middle East, controlling Iran's oil resources (Iran holds the world's third-largest oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves), and Trump's domestic political needs (facing midterm election pressure, seeking to boost approval ratings through a tough foreign policy stance).
On Iran's side, Supreme Leader Khamenei and several other leaders were killed in the strikes. However, Iran immediately announced the formation of a temporary leadership committee to continue resistance using a "mosaic defense" system — a decentralized, distributed combat structure. This means that even if Tehran is bombed, individual combat units can still operate independently, creating enormous uncertainty about the duration of the war.

2. Market Pulse: Violent Fluctuations in Asset Prices
Following the outbreak of the conflict, risk-off sentiment in global financial markets rose sharply, with clear divergence in asset prices.

Notably, after the confirmation of Khamenei's death, the cryptocurrency market staged a rapid rebound, with Ethereum surging more than 7% within 24 hours. This "V-shaped" movement is a typical reaction pattern for the cryptocurrency market under geopolitical shocks.

3. Historical Echoes: Cryptocurrency Trends in the Shadow of War
Looking back at the major armed conflicts from 2020 to 2026, we can observe Bitcoin's complex reaction patterns to geopolitical events.

Core Conclusion: The key variable affecting cryptocurrency trends is not the war itself, but the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Wars often indirectly affect the crypto market by pushing up inflation and influencing interest rate expectations. When wars drive rate cut expectations, cryptocurrencies tend to benefit; when wars cause inflation leading to rate hikes, cryptocurrencies come under pressure.
4. Commodities: The "War Premium" on Oil and Gold
The impact of Middle East geopolitical conflicts on commodity markets has historically been the most direct and significant.

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be underestimated. This narrow waterway handles 20% of global oil transport and 30% of seaborne oil trade. Iran produces approximately 3.3 million barrels of oil per day and exports more than 2 million barrels daily. If the strait is blocked, the global energy market will face an unprecedented shock.
The Iraq War (2003-2008) is the most valuable historical reference. At that time, oil prices started at $28 per barrel and, over five years, ultimately surged to a historical high of $147 in 2008. Gold similarly rose from around $300/oz to over $1,000 during that period. In the current US-Iran conflict, gold has already broken through $5,300/oz, setting a new all-time high, reflecting the market's high vigilance about long-term inflation risks.
5. The Iran Factor: A $78 Billion Crypto Shadow Economy
Unlike other countries, Iran has a massive "crypto shadow economy" worth approximately $7.8 billion, used to circumvent international sanctions.

According to Chainalysis data, Iran legalized cryptocurrency mining in 2019, allowing licensed operators to use subsidized electricity in exchange for selling mined Bitcoin to the central bank. By 2025, the system had grown to $7.8 billion, with more than half controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
This unique factor makes the impact of the Iranian situation on the crypto market more complex:
On one hand, the war may lead Iran to increase its use of cryptocurrencies for capital transfers, driving actual demand for crypto usage. On the other hand, US military strikes on Iran's power grid and financial infrastructure could directly destroy its cryptocurrency mining capabilities, reducing market supply. Additionally, escalating sanctions on Iran's crypto circulation channels could trigger compliance pressure on global cryptocurrency exchanges.
6. A New Market Paradigm: Institutional Entry and Decreased Volatility
The current cryptocurrency market has undergone profound structural changes compared to previous wars.
The most crucial variable is the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the large-scale entry of institutional investors. During the April 2024 Iran-Israel conflict, on the day of the missile attack, Bitcoin's volatility was only ±3%, less than one-third of what it was when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022. BlackRock's ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $420 million, creating a powerful volatility buffer.
This trend indicates that the "institutionalization" of the cryptocurrency market is significantly reducing its volatility under geopolitical shocks, gradually transforming it from a purely speculative market into a mature financial market with a certain depth and liquidity.
7. Future Outlook: Market Scenarios Under Three Possibilities
We propose three scenarios for the evolution of the US-Iran conflict and its impact on the market:

Scenario 1: Quick Resolution (Probability: 40%)
The conflict is brought under control within a few weeks, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. The market will quickly return to normal, with cryptocurrency and commodity prices falling back after an initial spike. Bitcoin may briefly dip before resuming its upward trend, with a target price range of $70,000-$80,000.
Scenario 2: Limited War Lasting Several Weeks (Probability: 45%)
The conflict persists for 1-3 months, increasing the risk of energy supply disruptions and raising global inflation expectations. This would force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy. If inflationary pressure causes the Fed to delay rate cuts, cryptocurrencies will come under pressure; but if war costs push the Fed toward easing, cryptocurrencies will gain new upward momentum.
Scenario 3: Full-Scale Regional War (Probability: 15%)
The conflict spirals out of control, evolving into a long-term, comprehensive regional war, potentially triggering a global energy crisis and economic stagflation similar to the 1970s. In this extreme scenario, gold's safe-haven status would be maximized, with oil prices potentially breaking through $150/barrel. The trajectory of cryptocurrencies would be highly uncertain: they could be sought after for their "digital gold" properties and decentralized nature, or sold off in a global liquidity crisis.
Conclusion: The Crypto Investment Logic in the Fog of War
The US-Iran war has brought immense uncertainty to global financial markets, but it also provides rational investors with an opportunity to examine the fundamental value of cryptocurrencies.
In the short term, market volatility is unavoidable, and risk-asset characteristics are prominent. Investors should pay attention to the following key signals: the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, the Fed's policy stance, and the capital flows of institutional ETFs.
In the long term, with deeper institutional involvement and improved market infrastructure, the unique value of cryptocurrency as an emerging, decentralized store of value and medium of exchange is being recognized by more investors against a macro backdrop of increasing global geopolitical risks.
Scenario 1: Quick Resolution (Probability: 40%)
The conflict is brought under control within a few weeks, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. The market will quickly return to normal, with cryptocurrency and commodity prices falling back after an initial spike. Bitcoin may briefly dip before resuming its upward trend, with a target price range of $70,000-$80,000.
Scenario 2: Limited War Lasting Several Weeks (Probability: 45%)
The conflict persists for 1-3 months, increasing the risk of energy supply disruptions and raising global inflation expectations. This would force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy. If inflationary pressure causes the Fed to delay rate cuts, cryptocurrencies will come under pressure; but if war costs push the Fed toward easing, cryptocurrencies will gain new upward momentum.
Scenario 3: Full-Scale Regional War (Probability: 15%)
The conflict spirals out of control, evolving into a long-term, comprehensive regional war, potentially triggering a global energy crisis and economic stagflation similar to the 1970s. In this extreme scenario, gold's safe-haven status would be maximized, with oil prices potentially breaking through $150/barrel. The trajectory of cryptocurrencies would be highly uncertain: they could be sought after for their "digital gold" properties and decentralized nature, or sold off in a global liquidity crisis.
Conclusion: The Crypto Investment Logic in the Fog of War
The US-Iran war has brought immense uncertainty to global financial markets, but it also provides rational investors with an opportunity to examine the fundamental value of cryptocurrencies.
In the short term, market volatility is unavoidable, and risk-asset characteristics are prominent. Investors should pay attention to the following key signals: the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, the Fed's policy stance, and the capital flows of institutional ETFs.
In the long term, with deeper institutional involvement and improved market infrastructure, the unique value of cryptocurrency as an emerging, decentralized store of value and medium of exchange is being recognized by more investors against a macro backdrop of increasing global geopolitical risks.
"War is not the only cause of price changes; monetary policy is the core force that determines direction. The fog of war will eventually dissipate, and the crypto wave driven by technology and consensus will continue to reshape the future financial landscape."
Risk Disclaimer: This report is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors need to assess risks independently.