TradeSphere_

$BTC 31k$ -27k$ expected bottom range.

I’ve now added the overall percentage correction from each bear-market cycle top to its eventual bottom to the chart.

An interesting pattern becomes visible:

-93% → -86% → -83% → -77% → Current cycle: ~-74%?

The total magnitude of Bitcoin’s corrections has been decreasing with each cycle.

Why can we consider this historical pattern relevant again?

Because Bitcoin has already shown that it is following the same relief-rally structure seen in previous bear markets. In previous cycles, these structures were eventually followed by major bearish continuation.

That major bearish continuation has not happened yet in the current cycle — it is what I’m expecting based on the historical structure.

There is no fixed number for how much the total correction decreases from one cycle to the next, but historically we’ve seen reductions of roughly 3–5 percentage points.

If the current cycle follows a similar progression, the total correction could potentially be another 3–5 percentage points smaller than the previous cycle, putting the current cycle around ~74%.

A ~74% total correction would point toward the $31K area.

However, we don’t know the exact percentage in advance, so rather than focusing on one precise target, I’ll be watching $31K–$27K as the broader potential bottom zone for this cycle.

$XLM has been repeating the same trick for years.

2018: liquidity → expansion.

2021: liquidity → expansion.

Now price is back near the same long-term floor again.

And somehow everyone decided this time the pattern is irrelevant.

The upper trendline has already connected two major cycle tops - roughly $0.40 and $0.80.

A third touch would put $XLM somewhere around $1.70–$1.80.

Sounds ridiculous from $0.16.

But so did $0.80 when nobody wanted it.

$XLM doesn’t need a new story. It just needs to repeat the old one.

$LUNC might have the most ridiculous risk/reward chart in crypto right now.

Not because I expect a miracle tomorrow.

Because look at where price is trading versus where the old structure still sits.

Current price: ~$0.000049

First real structural test: $0.00017689

Then: $0.00027833

And the old ATH zone: $0.00064429

That last level is roughly a 13x from here.

And this is where $LUNC becomes interesting to me.

It doesn’t need to reclaim the ATH for the trade to get stupid.

Even a simple return toward previous structural levels would represent a massive repricing.

Of course, $LUNC has enough baggage to fill an airport.

But charts don’t care about emotional baggage.

Break $0.00017689 and suddenly “dead coin” becomes everyone’s favorite comeback story again.

$BTC

The more I look around, the more convinced I am that this is the scenario 90% of people are positioning for.

"Just fill my long first, then pump."

It feels like we're at that stage of the cycle where everyone is trying to play guru and catch the macro bottom, even though the cycles are shifting.

We saw a new ATH before the halving for the first time in Bitcoin's history. We're also seeing cycle bottoms form progressively sooner. Likewise, this cycle appeared to top earlier others. These are meaningful structural changes that a lot of people seem to dismiss because they expect every cycle to follow the same 4 year pattern.

I think a lot of people are going to learn this lesson the hard way. The obvious trade is rarely the one that pays, and catching the exact bottom has never been as straightforward as people make it out to be.

$AGLD is forming a descending channel in daily timeframe..

if upside breakout with momentum candle we can see a massive bullish in next coming days📈

$ZEC / BTC update:

ZEC appears to be repeating the same market structure on a much larger scale.

Structure 2 is developing as an expanded version of Structure 1, following the same sequence of impulsive rallies, relief bounces, and prolonged bearish continuation.

If this repeating fractal continues to play out, the current market should be viewed as part of a larger distribution and decline rather than the beginning of a new bullish cycle.

$XLM has done something almost nobody noticed.

It survived.

And in crypto…

Survival is underrated.

Think about how many “Ethereum killers” came and went.

How many narratives exploded…

…and disappeared six months later.

Meanwhile, Stellar is still here.

Still liquid.

Still building.

Still waiting.

This chart isn’t screaming for attention.

It’s whispering.

The higher highs across every cycle keep respecting the same long-term trajectory.

That tells me one thing:

The market hasn’t forgotten about $XLM .

It’s just waiting for the right moment.

Here’s what usually happens.

Nobody wants to touch old coins while they’re boring.

Everyone’s busy chasing the newest shiny narrative.

AI.

DePIN.

RWA.

Whatever the trend of the month is.

Then capital rotates.

And suddenly those “dead” coins start printing candles nobody expected.

The funniest part?

If $XLM starts running…

Most people won’t buy it at $0.20.

They won’t buy it at $0.40 either.

They’ll finally get interested somewhere near the previous highs…

…right when the easy money has already been made.

That’s how markets punish impatience.

And reward people who can see value before everyone else does

$ARKG.ETF - Dip didn't last long, looks ready for its second wave. Will be an exciting sector to watch.

Eine Sache, die mir aufgefallen ist, wenn ich nachträglich alle großen $ZEC -Rallies Revue passieren lasse:

Im Jahr 2017, als ZEC von etwa 20 $ auf nahezu 900 $ stieg, war die Stimmung fast identisch mit dem, was wir heute sehen. Twitter, Foren und Influencer wurden überwiegend bullish, mit Kurszielen von 2.000 $, 5.000 $ und sogar noch höheren. Der vorherrschende Glaube war, dass das Rallye-Geschehen gerade erst begonnen hatte.

Das gleiche Muster wiederholte sich in späteren Zyklen: Während der Kurs anstieg, wurden die bullishen Narrative stärker, höhere Kursziele wurden häufiger, und die meisten Menschen erwarteten, dass der Aufwärtstrend weitergehen würde.

Nach jeder großen Rally stürzte ZEC schließlich um rund 95 % gegenüber dem Zyklus-Hoch ab.

Heute sehen wir wieder dasselbe Verhalten. Extreme bullish Kursziele sind überall zu finden – genauso wie während früherer ZEC-Rallies. Die Geschichte muss sich nicht exakt wiederholen, aber es lohnt sich, sich daran zu erinnern, wie die Stimmung vor den vorherigen großen Rückschlägen aussah.

$ONDO könnte im Moment eines der saubersten Setups auf dem Markt sein.

Nicht, weil es bereits hochschießt.

Sondern weil der Fahrplan unglaublich klar ist.

Gerade sitzt ONDO knapp unter seinem ersten großen Widerstand.

Etwa bei 0,46 $.

Diese Marke entscheidet darüber, ob das hier nur noch ein weiterer Rückpraller ist…

Oder der Beginn eines viel größeren Trends.

Wenn Käufer ihn zurückerobern, wird der Weg überraschend unkompliziert.

Ziel 1: ~0,46 $

Ziel 2: ~0,70 $

Ziel 3: ~1,17 $

Jeder Ausbruch entfernt eine weitere Schicht an zusätzlichem Verkaufsdruck.

Jeder Ausbruch zieht mehr Aufmerksamkeit an.

Jeder Ausbruch macht den nächsten leichter.

Wenn $ONDO erst einmal über 1 $ drückt, wird sich die Story komplett ändern.

Dann fragen die Leute nicht mehr, ob es bullisch ist.

Sondern warum sie nicht unter 50 Cent gekauft haben.

Vom heutigen Kurs bis zum finalen Ziel…

Das sind ungefähr 770 %.

Nicht wegen Hype.

Sondern weil Trends Schritt für Schritt aufgebaut werden.

Erst ein Widerstand.

Dann der nächste.

Dann noch ein weiterer.

Die besten Charts brauchen keine komplizierten Theorien.

Sie brauchen nur Geduld.

Und im Moment sieht $ONDO so aus, als würde sich der Markt ganz still auf seine nächste Expansion vorbereiten.

$XLM has done this twice already.

That’s the part most people ignore.

The first liquidity sweep led to a 2,400% expansion.

The second one delivered another 700%+ move.

Now Stellar is sitting on top of a new liquidity pool, printing a structure that looks surprisingly familiar.

Markets love repeating what worked.

Not because history is identical.

Because human behavior is.

Everyone gets excited after a rally.

Very few pay attention while price is quietly building the next base.

If this accumulation resolves the same way as the previous two cycles, Phase 3 could easily become the biggest narrative around $XLM .

By the time people start calling it “obvious,”

the majority of the move will already be behind us. 🚀

$ONDO feels like one of those charts that everyone will suddenly “discover”…

after it’s already doubled.

Right now?

Almost nobody is talking about it.

And that’s usually when the best opportunities exist.

The first target isn’t even the interesting part.

$0.46 is just proof that buyers are back.

The real shift happens if price reclaims $0.70.

That’s where sentiment starts changing.

People stop asking “Is it dead?”…

…and start asking “Is it too late to buy?”

What I like most about $ONDO is how clean this roadmap looks.

There’s no need to invent magical indicators.

No complicated Elliott Waves.

No secret strategy.

Just level after level after level.

Sometimes the market really is that simple.

Think about how previous cycles worked.

Every big winner looked boring before it became everyone’s favorite.

The quiet accumulation.

The disbelief.

The slow grind higher.

Then suddenly…

Twitter starts acting like the move was obvious all along.

If $ONDO clears the previous major supply around $1.16…

Price discovery becomes a completely different game.

Momentum attracts attention.

Attention attracts liquidity.

Liquidity creates even more momentum.

That’s how trends snowball.

The funny part?

Most people won’t buy this chart today.

They’ll buy it after the first 150%.

Then convince themselves they’re “early.”

That’s how every cycle repeats itself.

Different token.

Exactly the same psychology.

$BLUR

BLUR appears to be moving through its favorite repeating structure, highlighted on the chart.

It looks like the price is completing the same pattern on a smaller scale while simultaneously building an identical structure on a much larger timeframe. If this fractal continues to develop, a strong relief rally would be a natural next step to complete the larger formation.

This is why I’m expecting a recovery toward the $0.10–0.13 resistance zone before the broader bearish trend potentially resumes.

$SUI doesn’t look like a coin that’s trying to survive anymore.

It looks like a coin getting ready to make people regret ignoring it.

There’s a big difference.

Look at what’s happening beneath the surface.

Three separate touches into the same liquidity zone.

Three times sellers tried to push it lower.

Three times they failed.

At some point, repeated failures stop being weakness…

…and start becoming fuel.

Most traders think the real move starts after a breakout.

That’s backwards.

The real move starts while nobody believes a breakout is even possible.

That’s exactly why bases like this are so powerful.

They’re designed to exhaust everyone before rewarding anyone.

The roadmap is sitting right in front of us.

First comes the BOS around $2.

Then the major supply near $4.5.

After that…

The previous ATH becomes the final psychological wall before price enters discovery again.

Every level reclaimed changes the story.

Every breakout creates a new buyer.

People love saying they want to catch the next big winner.

What they actually want…

…is to buy after it’s already doubled.

Because then it feels “safe.”

Markets don’t reward comfort.

They reward conviction before the crowd shows up.

Here’s what I’ve learned from crypto.

The strongest trends rarely begin with excitement.

They begin with silence.

With people scrolling past the chart because “nothing is happening.”

Then one day…

Everyone wakes up asking the same question:

“How did $SUI get there so fast?”

$HYPE has reached the $58 sell zone exactly as expected and has already dropped over 4% from the local high.

A move toward $63 cannot be ruled out, but even if it happens, it would simply provide another opportunity to expand our short positions at better prices.

As long as the overall structure remains intact, I continue to expect bearish continuation toward the $41–45 target zone.

$LUNC is the market’s favorite joke.

That’s exactly why it’s dangerous to ignore.

Everyone remembers the collapse.

Almost nobody pays attention to what happens after the collapse.

Years of sideways action.

Liquidity quietly building.

Sellers getting exhausted.

Speculators leaving.

And that’s usually how forgotten assets are reborn.

Not with headlines.

With silence.

The funny thing about crypto is that narratives change much faster than charts.

Today it’s “dead.”

Tomorrow it’s “why didn’t I buy this at the bottom?”

Nothing actually changed…

Except price.

The cleanest setups are rarely attached to the cleanest stories.

$LUNC doesn’t need everyone to believe again.

It only needs enough buyers to overwhelm years of trapped supply.

If that liquidity pool finally releases into expansion…

This chart has room to surprise almost everyone.

And the people laughing today?

They’re often the same ones chasing it after the first 500%.

$BANK update:

This update is more of a warning than a sell signal.

The current +30% rally looks more like a relief rally before bearish continuation, rather than the start of a new impulsive uptrend. Many traders may be experiencing FOMO, expecting price to repeat the previous explosive rally, but from a structural perspective, this move appears to be driven more by short-term liquidity and market psychology than by genuine strength.

As shown on the chart, the current recovery is developing in a corrective manner, closely resembling a typical relief rally that often occurs before the next leg lower. If this structure continues to play out, I expect bearish continuation toward the $0.02 area.

$ONDO has something most charts don’t.

A clean roadmap.

No guessing.

No chasing.

Just one level after another.

The first target isn’t even that far away.

Reclaim it…

And suddenly the entire chart changes.

Break the second…

Now people stop calling it a dead bounce.

Take out the final major resistance…

And that’s when FOMO usually arrives.

The interesting part?

Almost everyone wants to buy strength.

Very few want to buy structure.

But structure is where the biggest money is made.

That’s exactly what $ONDO is building right now.

A higher low.

A reclaim attempt.

And a clear sequence of levels waiting overhead.

Markets don’t move in straight lines.

They stair-step.

One resistance becomes support.

Then the next.

Then the next.

By the time everyone realizes a new trend has started…

Price is already hundreds of percent higher.

That’s why patience pays.

$ONDO doesn’t need an explosive candle tomorrow.

It just needs to keep doing what it’s already doing:

Break a level.

Hold it.

Move to the next.

Repeat.

Sometimes the strongest trends are also the most boring while they’re being built.

$ZEC is starting to build the structure for another breakout attempt.

We're seeing price climb through a 4H ascending channel, with the prior high at $495 now acting as the key resistance.

If that level breaks, I’d expect a hunt of the liquidity sitting above $510.

That’s also the pivot where this move begins developing into a larger macro breakout.

Until $510 is broken, the chart is still operating within a lower-high structure.

Patience.

$ZEC is starting to build the structure for another breakout attempt.

We're seeing price climb through a 4H ascending channel, with the prior high at $495 now acting as the key resistance.

If that level breaks, I’d expect a hunt of the liquidity sitting above $510.

That’s also the pivot where this move begins developing into a larger macro breakout.

Until $510 is broken, the chart is still operating within a lower-high structure.

Patience.