jarry9

If you’ve been around long enough, this part of the cycle feels familiar. The structure hasn’t changed much. Bitcoin$BTC still moves in these broad four-year waves, and halvings sit right at the center of it. Every time the block reward gets cut, new supply slows down. That part is mechanical. What follows is behavioral.
Looking at the Arkham, I see the same rhythm repeat: accumulation after a crash, a steady run into the halving, a stronger push after it, and then the unwind.
Not immediately
But eventually
The halving reduces issuance, surebut what really matters is how the market reacts to that scarcity. Traders front-run it, narratives build, and price stretches further than it should. Then it corrects. That pattern has held up so far, even as institutions and macro flows start to blur the edges a bit.
The most recent halving was on April 2024. Before that, May 2020. If you look at what happened after both, the sequence lines up almost too neatly. Strong rally into and after the halving. Then, roughly a year later, things start to roll over. This time was no different. Bitcoin pushed above US$126 k in October 2025. That was the top. Since then, it’s dropped more than 46%, landing back in the US$60–70 k range. That’s not noise. That’s a proper drawdown. The kind you usually see in the middle of a cycle reset.
And the timing?
That’s where it gets interesting. Analysts aren’t calling for a bottom just yet. Most of them are looking further out. Bitbo data points to Q4 2026 as the likely window. Tony Research is even more specific—US$40–50 k, sometime between mid-September and late November 2026. If you go back and check 2018 and 2022, both cycle lows showed up roughly 12 months after the top. Not exact. But close enough to matter.
Evidence from analysts and on-chain data
This isn’t just one view. You’re seeing alignment across different types of analysis. Q4 2026 is where the bearish trend likely ends. His base case sits around US$45k. But he also left room for downside. In a stressed macro environment, he doesn’t rule out something as low as US$16k.
That’s not a prediction. It’s a reminder of how far these markets can stretch when liquidity dries up.
Then you’ve got CryptoQuant, looking at it from a cycle math perspective.
Instead of guessing, they mapped previous halvings and counted forward. The numbers they came up with are specific: 777 days, 889 days, and 925 days after the April 2024 halving. That gives you three potential bottom dates
4 June 2026
24 September 2026
30 October 2026
Not one exact point. A range. Which is usually how these things play out. Their takeaway is simple: somewhere between June and December 2026 is where the low likely forms.
$BTC tends to go up for three years, then correct hard in the fourth. If you follow that logic, 2026 is the down year.
No surprises there
The drop from US$126 k into the low-US$60 k range already matches the scale of previous corrections. And historically, it takes about six to twelve months for a real bottom to form. Not a bounce. A bottom.
Put all of that together, and the picture is consistent. Different methods. Same window.
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