GEMINI

On February 25 at 18:00 UTC, the same pattern showed up again. Smoothed Net Realized P&L crossed $5M per hour as price climbed to $69.4K, but it stalled just below $70K. Profit taking near that level continues to cap upside, and in this thin liquidity environment even modest selling pressure is enough to block recovery attempts.

When you zoom out, the long term trend is still clearly positive. The main concern right now is the recent correction, which has pushed short term investors deep into losses. The 1 to 3 month holders have a realized price around $90,000, and with BTC trading near $68,000, they are down roughly 24% on average. Around this realized price, the deviation bands sit at $153,000 on the high end, $126,000 above, $79,000 below and $56,000 at the lower extreme.

These levels often act as reaction zones since this group tends to respond quickly to price moves. In this cycle, #BTC has frequently corrected after reaching the upper extreme band, and from current levels, price still needs to climb further for these short term holders to return to comfortable profits.

Yesterday, Net Taker Volume on the 25HMA jumped to $1.13B per hour, one of the strongest buy imbalances in months. This shows heavy aggressive market buying, meaning traders were actively lifting offers instead of waiting.

It signals strong bullish pressure and high conviction from buyers. If this continues, price can push higher. If it fades, we may see a short pause or pullback.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

LSI is now rolling over and trending lower, which shows that the immediate stress in the market is easing. This shift has created short term relief, allowing price to push upward after moving through the 63K stress zone. Even so, the MA24h remains above 56, signaling that background pressure is still present.

The surface may look stable for now, but the broader structure has not completely normalized. So while buyers have gained temporary control and upward continuation is possible, the overall environment still carries underlying risk...

Glassnode’s full history GEX heatmap now highlights a build up of negative gamma around and below the current spot price, while the positive gamma barriers above are becoming thinner.

Because #BTC is trading in a short gamma zone, dealer hedging flows can increase volatility. Instead of absorbing price moves, hedging activity may add pressure in the same direction, making both upward and downward moves more aggressive.

The structure of #BTC options has shifted. Across the full history #GEX heatmap, negative gamma is expanding around and below the current spot level, while the positive gamma resistance above is thinning out. With price sitting in a short gamma zone, dealer hedging flows could magnify volatility and make moves more aggressive in either direction.

#Bitcoin’s MVRV has cooled off and is now trading close to its long term average, with the previous +1 standard deviation extreme fully reset. Valuations are moving toward levels that have historically provided better risk to reward opportunities, although the market has not yet entered the deeply undervalued zone typically seen near major cycle bottoms.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

During the previous 24 hours, 137,720 traders saw their positions liquidated, pushing the total liquidation amount to $418.80 million. The largest individual liquidation took place on Bitget, involving an #ETHUSDT_UMCBL order valued at $26.10 million.

Mining difficulty didn’t stay low for long. After winter storms temporarily shut down several operations and caused a brief dip, the network has already recalibrated. As miners brought their machines back online and hash rate recovered, the latest adjustment pushed difficulty right back up.

It’s a clear example of how responsive the #Bitcoin network is. External disruptions may slow things down for a moment, but the system quickly adapts and restores balance, keeping block times steady and the chain moving forward.

Market conditions have shifted as the 90D SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio moves below 1. This indicates that loss realization is now dominating over profit taking, which typically reflects weaker sentiment and tighter liquidity. In past cycles, the ratio has remained below 1 for several months before recovering. A sustained move back above this level would signal improving confidence and a healthier flow of capital into the market.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Die Übernachtzinskosten zwischen Banken sinken, da der effektive Federal Funds Rate zurückgeht. Diese Veränderung signalisiert in der Regel, dass die Politiker auf lockerere finanzielle Bedingungen zusteuern. Da die Finanzierung günstiger wird, verbessert sich die Liquidität im gesamten System. Ein Anstieg der Liquidität kommt oft Vermögenswerten zugute, die stark auf Kapitalflüsse reagieren, einschließlich Bitcoin und anderen risikobehafteten Märkten.

A familiar pattern is forming as the #Binance Buying Power Index returns to previous low levels. This typically signals a temporary cooldown rather than a breakdown, showing that the market is pausing, liquidity is tightening, and aggressive buying has slowed. In past cycles, similar compressions have often been followed by upward moves once demand picks up again, making this setup historically lean more bullish than bearish.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

On February 6, the 7D EMA of Net Realized Profit and Loss hit -$1.24B per day, reflecting heavy realized losses from recent investors. It has since recovered to -$0.48B per day, suggesting that the pace of selling has eased. Even so, the market remains under pressure, with many participants still closing positions at a loss as the base formation phase continues.

#Ethereum is facing pressure in an already weak market environment, and recent data shows signs that whales are stepping back. The average #ETH order size on #Binance has been steadily decreasing since the start of the year, which suggests that large investors are reducing their activity.

This decline means big players may be cutting exposure or waiting for clearer market direction. With fewer large orders in the books, the market can become more sensitive to volatility and sudden price moves.

Retail inflows have dropped to a 9 year low. The average monthly #Bitcoin sent to Binance from retail investors is now around 384 BTC, the lowest level since 2017. For comparison, in January 2021, retail investors were sending nearly 2,700 #BTC per month. This shows retail participation is currently very weak compared to the last bull cycle.

Zu Beginn des Jahres war die institutionelle Perspektive für #Bitcoin eindeutig bearish. Als #BTC über 60.000 $ stieg, fiel die Coinbase Premium Gap auf -96 $, was eine schwache Nachfrage von professionellen Investoren zeigte, während die Nettozuflüsse des Spot-Bitcoin-ETFs im Durchschnitt -210 Millionen $ betrugen, was auf starke Kapitalabflüsse hinweist. Dieser kombinierte Verkaufsdruck lastete schwer auf dem Markt.

Jetzt verbessert sich die Situation. Die #coinbase Premium Gap hat sich auf -23,8 $ verengt, was darauf hindeutet, dass der Verkaufsdruck nachlässt, und die Nettozuflüsse von #ETF haben sich auf -19 Millionen $ erholt, was bedeutet, dass die Abflüsse erheblich langsamer geworden sind. Obwohl beide Kennzahlen immer noch leicht negativ sind, hat sich die Richtung geändert. Wenn sie positiv werden, könnte dies eine stärkere Unterstützung für Bitcoin bieten und die allgemeinen Marktbedingungen verbessern.