bloomingbit

Trump Says U.S. Is Holding ‘Very Good Discussions’ With Iran
President Donald Trump signaled that an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached soon. One proposal would have Gulf and European countries, rather than ships using the route, bear transit fees.
In an interview with Fox News on August 4, Trump said the U.S. was having “very good discussions” with Iran. “The Strait of Hormuz will open soon, and if it doesn’t, Iran will face a powerful attack,” he said.
Other senior officials also indicated a deal with Iran was near. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the State Department on August 4 that Oman and Iran were discussing ways to allow more ships to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz in the short term while longer-term talks on denuclearization continue. The U.S. is involved in those talks, he added. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the same day that an agreement to reopen the strait could be reached later on August 4 or on August 5, based on U.S. Eastern time.
More detailed proposals are also emerging on transit fees for the waterway. The Telegraph reported that Iran was considering a plan under which European countries would cover the cost of maintaining and managing the Strait of Hormuz through “voluntary contributions.”
International oil prices fell more than 5% on the day. Brent crude futures for October delivery settled at $79.36 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe in London, down 5.3% from the previous session and below $80 for the first time in about three weeks.
Kim Dong-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter 3code@hankyung.com

Investor Michael Burry warned that the current rally in US stocks could end in a selloff similar to the 1987 market crash, even as the S&P 500 trades at a record high. Burry is best known for predicting the 2008 global financial crisis and was the real-life inspiration for the film “The Big Short.”
Burry told CNBC on August 4 that he still believes the index may be nearing a major top and that a decline like the one seen in 1987 could follow. That was the year of Black Monday, when US stocks plunged about 20%.
Burry has repeatedly warned of an artificial-intelligence bubble. He said new money is likely to flow into the market when the S&P 500 reaches fresh highs, creating a self-reinforcing cycle in the rally.
He also said volatility-targeting funds are effectively forced to add leverage when volatility remains low. Rising share prices and subdued volatility can spur automatic buying by systematic strategies, allowing leverage to build and potentially magnifying losses once a selloff begins. The three major US stock indexes closed higher for a fourth straight session that day.
Burry also appears to be maintaining short positions in several names, including the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), Micron Technology, Nvidia, Caterpillar, Palantir Technologies, Tesla and Applied Materials.
He said he remains confident in those positions over the long term, but would close them to limit losses if the trades move against him. He added that he is still profitable on every short except Nvidia.
Han Myung-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter wise@hankyung.com

Bitcoin’s long streak of outperforming the stock market over the past 14 years may come under threat this year, according to an analysis.
CoinDesk reported on August 5 that the Bitcoin-to-S&P 500 ratio has moved decisively above its 200-week simple moving average for the first time on record. The ratio refers to the amount of Bitcoin needed to buy the S&P 500 index.
CoinDesk said the ratio had fallen steadily since 2010. In 2012, it took 300 Bitcoin to buy the S&P 500 index. Now, 0.12 Bitcoin is enough.
The recent strength in U.S. equities, however, could upend that trend. CoinDesk said there have been past periods when U.S. stocks temporarily outperformed Bitcoin, but this is the first time the chart has broken above the 200-week SMA.
A reversal in that trend could also darken Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. If the premise that Bitcoin consistently generates higher returns than stocks starts to weaken, CoinDesk wrote, the narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value could deteriorate. Optimism that Bitcoin will surge in the next bull market could also falter.

The digital-asset industry will keep growing even if the U.S. Senate fails to pass the CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill for digital assets whose path forward remains uncertain.
Cointelegraph reported on August 5 that Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said many investors expect clarity on the bill this week. But he said the digital-asset industry has already reached a point of no return and will continue expanding even if the legislation fails.
The Senate is heading into its summer recess, and the bill would need to clear procedural hurdles by August 5 to keep moving. Market concern has grown that if the CLARITY Act does not pass before the recess, action on the measure could be pushed into next year.
Expectations for passage have also declined. Galaxy Research last month lowered its estimate for the bill's chances of passing this year to 30%. On Polymarket, the probability stood at 23%.
Hougan also said that if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could move directly to write related rules. The SEC is prepared to draft rules covering the main issues addressed in the CLARITY Act, he said, adding that the industry could keep growing for about another two and a half years even if legislation is delayed.
He added, however, that regulatory interpretations are less stable than legislation enacted by Congress and could change with future court rulings or a change in administration.

The Bank of Korea has created a new Asset Tokenization Team under its Digital Currency Office as it prepares a pilot program for tokenized government bonds.
Edaily reported on August 5 that the BOK set up the new unit in an organizational reshuffle carried out last week alongside its regular second-half personnel changes. The team will oversee a pilot project to tokenize government bonds in connection with central bank digital currency, or CBDC, infrastructure.
The BOK has been conducting experiments through Project Hangang to implement central bank money and bank deposits in the form of deposit tokens. The creation of the new team expands that effort into asset tokenization, including the issuance and distribution of real-world assets such as government bonds in digital token form.
The Asset Tokenization Team will work on building a Unified Ledger framework that handles deposit tokens, central bank money and asset tokens on a single platform. In that structure, deposit tokens and asset tokens are managed on the same ledger based on central bank money, allowing remittances, clearing and settlement to be processed in a single workflow.
In the latest reorganization, the North Korean Economy Research Office under the BOK's Economic Research Institute was also renamed the Economic Security Office. The move reflects the rising prominence of economic security issues as trade, resources and technology become more closely tied to national security.
Separately, the BOK recently created a director-level strategic meeting to address agenda items related to the Bank for International Settlements. It is also discussing ways to build future financial infrastructure, including deposit tokens and tokenized government bonds, the report said.

US-Spot-Bitcoin-Exchange-Traded-Funds setzten ihre Zuflussserie fort und nahmen mehr als 200 Millionen US-Dollar ein.
Daten von Trader T zeigten, dass die als nettozufließende Mittel erfassten Beträge in der vorherigen Sitzung am 5. August 211,5 Millionen US-Dollar betrugen. Damit war es der zweite Handelstag in Folge mit Nettozuflüssen.
BlackRocks IBIT führte die Gruppe mit Nettozuflüssen in Höhe von 170,35 Millionen US-Dollar an. Fidelitys FBTC zog 19,58 Millionen US-Dollar an, Ark Invests ARKB brachte 9,17 Millionen US-Dollar ein, Bitwise' BITB fügte 8,72 Millionen US-Dollar hinzu und Morgan Stanleys MSBT verzeichnete 3,68 Millionen US-Dollar.

Eine Abstimmung diese Woche zum CLARITY Act, einem US-Gesetz zur Marktstruktur im Krypto-Sektor, könnte sich verzögern, nachdem Senatsrepublikaner keinen Antrag auf Cloture gestellt haben, um die Vorlage auf die Tagesordnung zu bringen.
Eleanor Terrett, Moderatorin von „Crypto in America“, sagte am 5. August, dass der Mehrheitsführer im Senat, John Thune, keinen Antrag auf Cloture bezüglich des Gesetzesentwurfs eingereicht habe. Sie verwies auf laufende Verfahren im Zusammenhang mit einer Continuing Resolution, also einer fortdauernden Mittelbereitstellung (CR), um genügend Stimmen für die Verabschiedung zu sichern, sowie auf Verhandlungen über zentrale Themen als Faktoren.
Demokraten und Republikaner verhandeln weiterhin ethische Bestimmungen, den Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, also das Gesetz zur regulatorischen Rechtssicherheit für Blockchains (BRCA), sowie die Frage, ob Zinszahlungen auf Stablecoins erlaubt werden sollen. Das Weiße Haus hat bislang noch keine offizielle Position zu einem Kompromissvorschlag im Zusammenhang mit den Formulierungen zur Ethik eingenommen.

The US, Iran and Oman are nearing a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Axios reported on August 4, citing multiple Middle East sources and a US government official, that Washington is aiming to announce an interim deal on August 6.
The arrangement is intended to revive a ceasefire between the US and Iran and restart nuclear talks. President Donald Trump has held off on plans for large-scale airstrikes to give diplomacy more time, while keeping open the option of military action if the agreement falls apart.
The draft under discussion would create a temporary 60-day shipping system involving Oman and Iran. Ships entering the Persian Gulf would use the northern route through Iranian territorial waters, while vessels leaving the gulf would take the southern route through Omani waters. No transit fees would be charged. The two sides also plan to begin clearing mines from the strait's central channel within 30 days.
After the mine-clearing is completed, negotiations would continue on a permanent shipping framework using the central channel.
In addition to Oman and Iran, Qatar, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have participated in mediation efforts, Axios said. On the US side, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has recently held several rounds of talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said Bitcoin could top $1 million after the artificial-intelligence bubble bursts.
In a Substack post on August 4, Hayes wrote that the investment frenzy around AI data centers and power grids from 2026 to 2028 could end in a credit crisis. If the U.S. government then rolls out massive liquidity support, Bitcoin could rise above $1 million.
He argued that the current boom in AI data-center construction is driven less by technological innovation than by real-estate development and credit expansion. Data centers and power-grid buildouts are being funded with heavy borrowing, and if those loans turn sour, the fallout could resemble the credit collapse of the 2008 global financial crisis.
Hayes also said Bitcoin has recently lagged as liquidity has flowed into the AI industry. Still, he said Bitcoin is building a base in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, with $50,000 likely to serve as a strong support level even in a sharp downturn.
He added that if the AI bubble bursts, the U.S. government would likely inject even more money into the economy than it did during the 2008 financial crisis to rescue AI companies and financial institutions. In that case, the dollar's value would be diluted and Bitcoin would be the biggest beneficiary asset.
"Bitcoin is the capital market's fire alarm, reflecting currency debasement and capital-allocation failures before anything else," Hayes wrote. "Once large-scale liquidity injections begin, Bitcoin could rise above $1 million."

Michael Saylor-led Strategy may be moving toward another sale of its Bitcoin holdings.
On Aug. 4, on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain reported that a wallet linked to Strategy transferred 1,030 BTC, worth about $66.14 million, to an external address about two hours earlier.
Lookonchain said the transfer could precede an additional Bitcoin sale by Strategy.

Today's Key Economic Events
▶ Aug. 5 (Wednesday): △ US July ADP private payrolls (9:15 p.m. Korea time) △ US July final services PMI (10:45 p.m. Korea time) △ US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI (11 p.m. Korea time) △ US crude oil inventories (11:30 p.m. Korea time)
Today's Key Cryptocurrency Events
▶ Aug. 5 (Wednesday): △ Succinct (PROVE) large-scale token unlock

Samsung Electronics Co. plans to make stablecoin features available by default on more than 800 million smartphones, a move that could position the company as a major distribution channel for the tokens.
CoinDesk reported on August 4 that Samsung recently unveiled the plan at its Galaxy Unpacked 2026 event. Through Samsung Wallet, the company aims to offer stablecoin functions by default on more than 800 million smartphones, including fiat-linked savings and payment accounts. If implemented, users would be able to access stablecoins without a separate crypto app or exchange account.
At the event, Lee Dinham, a product manager in Samsung's smartphone business, said the company would embrace new forms of digital value, including stablecoins. He said Samsung Wallet would become the foundation of a financial ecosystem integrating payments, rewards and digital assets across Galaxy devices and services. Samsung Wallet currently has about 19 million users in South Korea and is available in 61 countries.
Joseph Goh, Asia-Pacific head at crypto investment bank Areta, told CoinDesk the strategy could make Samsung a key distributor of stablecoins such as USDC. The biggest obstacle to mass crypto adoption is new-user access, he said, adding that distribution is the scarce asset and Samsung has it at scale.
Ben Nadarejski, Solstice's co-founder and chief executive officer, said crypto has long had deep trading bases only in certain markets, including South Korea, while channels into everyday consumer spending remained weak. Samsung Wallet could change that by bringing stablecoins into the same app consumers already use for card payments and checkout, he added.
Samsung's investment in crypto infrastructure is also attracting attention. On its second-quarter earnings call, Samsung SDS said its investment in Dunamu, the operator of South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, was a strategic move to enter digital-asset infrastructure businesses, including stablecoins and artificial intelligence-based payments. In May, three Samsung affiliates — Samsung Securities Co., Samsung SDS Co. and Samsung Card Co. — agreed to acquire a 4% stake in Dunamu for $408 million.
Goh said the wallet announcement secures distribution, while the Samsung SDS investment in Dunamu secures the infrastructure underneath it. He said Samsung appears to be trying to establish an early position in both dollar stablecoins and won-denominated stablecoins while South Korea debates its crypto regulatory framework.
Separately, the South Korean government in April released a draft Digital Asset Basic Act covering trading, custody, supervision and stablecoin issuance. No deadline has yet been set for passage of the bill or for a detailed implementation timetable.

Der US-Senat erwägt, dem CLARITY Act Bestimmungen zu Sportwetten hinzuzufügen, einem Gesetzentwurf zur digitalen-Asset-Markstruktur.
Block berichtete am 4. August, dass einige Gesetzgeber darüber diskutieren, eine Formulierung beizubehalten, die die aufsichtsrechtliche Zuständigkeit der Bundesstaaten und der Stammesregierungen für Sportwetten sicherstellt, während der Senat in dieser Woche mit dem Gesetz vorankommt.
Bei einem Senatsrundtisch schlug die demokratische Senatorin Tina Smith vor, die Bestimmung entweder in das CLARITY-Gesetz oder in den Farm Bill aufzunehmen. Der republikanische Senator John Boozman hingegen ist dagegen, Vorschriften für Vorhersagemärkte mit Kryptogesetzgebung zu verknüpfen.

Der US-Senat muss am 4. August mit verfahrenstechnischen Schritten beginnen, falls er am 6. August eine Plenarabstimmung darüber abhalten will, ob die Debatte zum Clarity Act, einem Gesetzentwurf zur Krypto-Marktstruktur, eröffnet werden soll, bevor die Kammer in ihre August-Pause geht, wie ein Bericht besagt. Ob Unterstützer die 60 Stimmen sichern können, die nötig sind, um das Vorhaben voranzubringen, bleibt ungewiss.
„Crypto in America“ berichtete am 4. August, dass nach den Geschäftsordnungsregeln des Senats der Mehrheitsführer John Thune den Prozess an diesem Tag formell einleiten muss, damit der Senat die tatsächliche Abstimmung zwei Tage später abhalten kann.

Der Verkaufsdruck auf dem Kryptowährungsmarkt nähert sich laut Wintermute einer Erschöpfung. Dennoch sei es zu früh, um mit einer starken Erholung zu rechnen; Händler müssten beobachten, ob die Tiefs der vergangenen Woche bei höherem Handelsvolumen wieder nach unten durchbrochen werden.
Wintermute, ein Krypto-Market-Maker, schrieb in einem Forschungsbericht vom 4. August, der Markt habe sich letzte Woche trotz der marktstrengen Entscheidung der US-Notenbank, die Zinsen unverändert zu lassen, einer deutlichen Steigerung der Renditen bei US-Treasuries mit 30-jähriger Laufzeit und umfangreichen Liquidationen von Positionen in KI-bezogenen Fonds relativ gut gehalten.

Wall Street firms have been slashing their price targets for Circle, the issuer of the USDC dollar stablecoin, as intensifying competition raises concerns over the durability of its profit model.
Morgan Stanley on August 3 cut its price target on Circle to $38 from $106, a reduction of more than 64%, according to the industry. That is among the lowest targets set by major Wall Street brokerages.
The bank also downgraded the stock to underweight from equal-weight. Circle shares fell 3.61% to close at $60.35 the same day. The stock has dropped more than 25% this year.
Morgan Stanley is not alone. Mizuho cut its target on Circle twice in July, lowering it to $45 from $85, a reduction of more than 47%. Bernstein also recently lowered its target to $140 from $190, a cut of about 26%.
Market Value Has Been Falling Since the Second Quarter
Wall Street's concern is that Circle's profit model is weakening. Competition in the stablecoin industry is intensifying, while slower cryptocurrency trading volumes could hurt returns from reserve management. Those concerns have been amplified by the recent launch of OpenUSD, or OUSD, a dollar stablecoin consortium joined by global companies including Visa, Google and BlackRock.
USDC circulation has already been declining since the second quarter. Blockchain data firm RWAxyz said USDC circulation rose to the $78 billion range at the end of the first quarter before falling about 9% to the $71 billion range in early August. If USDC circulation shrinks, Circle's reserve-management income also declines.
The problem is that Circle depends on reserve-management income for more than 90% of its revenue. Morgan Stanley wrote that the decline in USDC circulation underscores Circle's heavy reliance on reserve income. The bank added that the company's revenue structure is shifting toward lower-margin transaction fees.
'Distribution Costs Will Keep Rising'
A revenue-sharing agreement tied to decentralized exchange Hyperliquid is also adding pressure. Coinbase, Circle's key partner, signed a deal with Hyperliquid in May to share reserve-management income. Under the agreement, Hyperliquid uses USDC as the exchange's core stablecoin and receives about 90% of the USDC reserve income collected by Coinbase.
Wall Street sees the deal as a potential driver of higher distribution costs for Circle. As competition in the stablecoin market intensifies, future USDC distribution partners could use the Hyperliquid agreement as a benchmark to demand larger incentives. That would leave Circle little choice but to enter a costly fight for circulation.
That dynamic could be especially damaging for Circle because it is more dependent on reserve income than Coinbase. JPMorgan said Circle and Coinbase have created a prisoner's dilemma as they compete to expand USDC circulation, undermining each other's profitability in the process. Over the long term, the bank said, the greater threat falls on Circle as the issuer.
Asset managers' growing push into reserve management could also weaken Circle's earnings base. BlackRock is a notable example, having launched a tokenized money market fund, or MMF, on August 3 focused on stablecoin reserve management.
An industry official said the broader use of reserve management through products such as MMFs lowers barriers to entry for stablecoin issuance. As market competition intensifies, the person added, issuers will face rising costs to secure circulation.

Bitcoin hält sich im Bereich von 63.000 US-Dollar, aber ein wachsender Anteil der Coins wird nun mit Verlust gehalten, wodurch der Marktdruck wieder auf erhöhte Werte ansteigt, schrieb der Analyst Axel Adler Jr.
In einem Newsletter vom 4. August sagte Adler, dass der Profit-und-Verlust-Stressindex für Bitcoin auf 71,58 gestiegen sei und damit die Schwelle von 70 überschritten habe.
Der Index misst den Anteil der Bitcoin-Bestände, die bei dem aktuellen Kurs im Gewinn sind, im Vergleich zu den Beständen, die sich im Verlust befinden. Ein Wert über 70 deutet darauf hin, dass ein großer Teil des Angebots unter Wasser liegt und der Marktdruck hoch ist. Ein Wert über 90 signalisiert eine extreme Konzentration von verlustbringenden Beständen.

US investor demand for Ethereum has remained weaker than in the broader global market, according to an analysis.
CryptoQuant QuickTake said on August 4 that analyst Arab Chain put Ethereum’s Coinbase Premium Index at -0.0833. Ethereum was trading near $1,900.
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price gap between Coinbase and Binance. A negative reading means Ethereum is trading at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance, a sign that buying interest from US investors is relatively weak.
The index briefly turned positive in April. It slipped back into negative territory in early May and has remained below zero since. While trading has continued in the global market, sustained buying from US investors has yet to appear.
If the current pattern persists, Ethereum’s continued gains driven by institutional inflows could be limited, Arab Chain wrote. A return to positive territory that holds would signal that buying by US institutions has resumed.

Der Handel mit XRP-Futures hat sich deutlich verringert, wobei die Aktivität zunehmend auf Binance konzentriert ist.
Laut den am 4. August veröffentlichten Daten lag das gesamte XRP-Futures-Volumen bei 897 Millionen US-Dollar, wie der CryptoQuant-Quicktake-Analyst Amr Taha am 3. August angab. Das waren etwa 21,5% weniger als 1,14 Milliarden US-Dollar am 1. Mai.
Binance entfiel auf etwa 437 Millionen US-Dollar des XRP-Futures-Volumens, also 48,7% des Gesamtvolumens. Das war nahezu gleichauf mit den kombinierten 460 Millionen US-Dollar, die über alle anderen zentralisierten Börsen hinweg gehandelt wurden.
Im Vergleich zu Mai stieg das XRP-Futures-Volumen von Binance um etwa 6,8% von 409 Millionen US-Dollar. Das Volumen an anderen Börsen sank hingegen um etwa 37% von 733 Millionen US-Dollar. Der Marktanteil von Binance wuchs, obwohl der breitere Futures-Markt schrumpfte.

US-Spot-Bitcoin-Exchange-Traded-Funds (ETFs) kehrten zu Nettozuflüssen zurück, nachdem sie mehr als 100 Millionen US-Dollar an frischem Kapital angezogen hatten.
Die von Farside Investors am 4. August veröffentlichten Daten zeigten, dass US-Spot-Bitcoin-ETFs am Vortag zusammen Nettozuflüsse in Höhe von 170,1 Millionen US-Dollar verzeichneten. Die Kategorie schwenkte nach einem Tag wieder zu Nettozuflüssen zurück.
BlackRocks IBIT führte mit 111,4 Millionen US-Dollar an Nettozuflüssen. Fidelitys FBTC fügte 33,4 Millionen US-Dollar hinzu, Franklins EZBC brachte 9,2 Millionen US-Dollar ein, Invescos BTCO zog 6,7 Millionen US-Dollar an und VanEcks HODL verzeichnete Nettozuflüsse in Höhe von 4,5 Millionen US-Dollar.