OnChain Analytics

Fed just flipped the script — rate cuts? Try rate HIKES.

Everyone spent 2025 pricing in cuts. Now we're staring at the opposite.

June FOMC under new chair Kevin Warsh: median dot plot for end-2026 jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. That's not a dovish pivot — that's a hawkish reset.

9 out of 19 members now see at least one hike THIS YEAR. Only 1 wants a cut. 8 want to hold. The Fed's tone shift is real and it's loud.

Why this matters for your bags:
Higher rates = higher cost of capital = less appetite for risk assets. Bonds and savings accounts start looking sexy again. Equities and crypto? Not so much. Liquidity tightens. Volatility spikes.

Yet $SPX is chilling near all-time highs at 7,420. Market's either pricing in a soft landing or completely delusional. 10Y Treasury yield already climbing to 4.48% — that's a warning shot.

Next FOMC is July 28-29. Warsh will either confirm this hawk stance or blink. If you're holding floating-rate debt or planning any serious allocation moves, this is your red alert window.

Rate hikes in 2025 weren't on anyone's bingo card 6 months ago. Now they're base case. Adjust accordingly.

Binance Futures dropping USDⓈ-M $ETHUSD1 perps on July 3, 2026.

New instrument = new degen playground. Watch for:
• Launch liquidity grabs
• Funding rate arb vs $ETH spot
• OI buildups early on

If you're not front-running the liquidity, you're exit liquidity.

Thailand only has 2 licensed Digital Asset Investment Advisory firms approved by SEC.

The new CEO of firm #2? Manaswin Yusathaporn. Started as customer service at Satang Corp. 7 years later, he's running a nationally licensed advisory.

Key facts:

• ALTPLUS Advisory just got official SEC license - 2nd in entire country
• Manaswin climbed from CS → Corporate Strategist → handled Listing & Market Surveillance at Satang before this role
• Under ALTPLUS Group led by "Ajarn M" (Prof. Dr. Udomsak Rakwongwan) - finance expert with 200K+ followers
• Sister firm ALT+ Advisory already holds same license - so it's 2 firms under same group controlling both national licenses

Only 2 crypto advisory licenses in the entire country.

Is this actually filtering out trash advisors, or just gatekeeping small players from entering the market? 🤔

Former ETH Foundation execs just dropped Ethereum Institutional — a new non-profit laser-focused on bringing institutions into $ETH.

Backed by Consensys CEO and other heavy hitters. They're positioning as the "neutral front door" for TradFi players sniffing around the ecosystem.

Translation: institutional capital has been asking questions. Now there's a dedicated team to turn those convos into actual on-chain deployments.

Bullish for $ETH infrastructure narrative. Institutions don't move fast, but when they do, they move size.

Binance Futures dropping multiple USDⓈ-margined TradFi perps on July 2, 2026.

This is huge for bridging traditional finance with crypto derivatives. More TradFi exposure = more liquidity flowing into the ecosystem.

Expect:
• New leverage plays on traditional assets
• Broader market access for degens
• Potential arb opportunities between TradFi and crypto markets

Keep an eye on volume spikes and funding rates when these go live. Could signal where smart money is positioning.

Crypto YouTube is bleeding out and nobody's talking about it.

Million-sub channels are sitting on dead subs. Views down 78.7% since Jan 2025.

Coin Bureau: 2.72M subs, only 41K daily views. That's 1.5% engagement. Dead weight.

CryptosRUs, Crypto Banter, Bitcoin University all down 75% in views. Only Benjamin Cowen holding at -26.9%.

Crypto Banter: 1.18M subs, ZERO new subs last month. 35K views/day. Ghost town.

Cowen himself posted back in May 2021 crypto YouTube was pulling 3-4M views/day combined. Now? Less than 10% of that.

$BTC dom at 57-58%, price still 50%+ below Oct 2025 ATH of $126K. Market's cold, attention's gone.

Question: Are million-sub channels still an audience or just corpses from the last cycle?

Strategy just broke its own rule — sold 32 $BTC for the first time ever.

Same month they slowed buying from 50k $BTC to 3.6k. Market just liquidated $8.35B in longs. Liquidity is drying up fast.

🔻 June: Strategy bought only 3,600 $BTC (down from 25k in May, 50k in April)
🔻 Early June: Sold net 32 $BTC. Now holds 847,363 $BTC at avg $64,103
📉 Q2 liquidations: $8.35B in $BTC-$ETH longs wiped
📉 Open Interest collapsed: $BTC -32%, $ETH -40%. Order book depth now $35-40M (was $70M in May)
💸 ETF outflows: $4.5B in June alone. Single day (June 25): $696M out

When the guy who swore never to sell is selling, and liquidity is this thin — who's left to buy the dip?

Leverage is cleaner but bid side is ghost town. This isn't capitulation. It's exhaustion.

Fed pivot everyone's been waiting for? Dead.

Trump's handpicked Fed chair Kevin Warsh—the guy who was supposed to cut rates—is now threatening to RAISE them instead. That bounce above $60K? Smells like a bull trap, not a real recovery.

The irony: Trump pushed Warsh specifically to cut rates, even threatened lawsuits if he didn't. But Warsh is a hawk. Market now pricing 64% chance of a rate HIKE in September (up from 23% last month).

What's happening:
📉 5-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.22%
📉 Dollar (DXY) near yearly highs—sucking liquidity OUT of non-yielding assets like $BTC
📉 $BTC still down 53% from ATH. Gold down 12% in 2 months. Both "inflation hedges" getting wrecked during actual inflation.
📉 June $BTC ETF outflows: historic—$4.5B fled.

This bounce above $60K? Feels more like a bear trap than a real reversal.

So what's real: Does $BTC hit $80K by year-end, or do we see $53K first?

Green shoots popping up everywhere while everyone's mentally checked out.

We've literally never had this combo before:
• Real products shipping
• Regulatory clarity incoming
• Institutions actually deploying capital

Next 12 months? Way higher. The cream rises—$BTC $ETH and quality alts will print.

Most are numb from the chop. That's exactly when the next leg up starts.

Green shoots popping up everywhere while most are checked out.

We've never had this combo before:
→ Real products shipping
→ Regulatory clarity incoming
→ Institutions actually deploying capital

Next 12 months? Way higher.

Especially for the few assets actually building, not just memeing.

Attention is the alpha. Most miss the setup while doom-scrolling.

3x'd on $BASE today.

Thanks @avantisfi for the setup.

Feels good when leverage works in your favor.

Global payroll infrastructure getting real with $ZBCN

Zebec's co-founder Simon isn't some random builder - 10+ years deep in PE and advisory (Breyer Capital, Parthenon, Oliver Wyman). TradFi pedigree meeting crypto rails.

They're building 24/7 cross-border payment infrastructure. No more waiting on banking hours or settlement delays. Stream payments in real-time across any timezone.

This is the type of infra play that doesn't pump overnight but could own a serious wedge of corporate treasury flows if execution hits. Watch how fast they onboard actual businesses vs just retail degens.

Venice AI just closed a $65M Series A and hit unicorn status at $1B+ valuation 🦄

Another AI infra play reaching escape velocity. Watch how this impacts the broader AI agent narrative and potential token plays in the decentralized AI stack.

If you're not tracking AI x Crypto convergence in 2025, you're already late.

While $BTC whales dump, retail is catching knives.

But here's the real alpha: more $BTC is now underwater than in profit. This crossover just flipped for the first time this cycle.

Historically? This marks major bottoms and high-conviction accumulation zones.

The catch: we likely need a macro catalyst to confirm the reversal. Watch US inflation data and ETF flows closely.

This is where conviction gets tested 👀

Top 100 movers today:

$M up 48.6% — biggest gainer
$WBT +16.1%
$JUP +15.9%
$MORPHO +14.1%
$XLM +11.9%

Volume check these before aping. $M leading the pack hard.

Retail's bleeding out while institutions are stacking heavy.

$BTC and $ETH buys from big money haven't stopped. OpenUSD adoption is proof—corporates are positioning hard during the dip.

This isn't random. They're loading before the next leg up.

Price will catch up. Always does.

Insiders made billions. Retail got wrecked.

Trump just filed his 2025 financial disclosure. Crypto income? Over $1 billion. $635M from $TRUMP coin royalties alone.

Meanwhile, the token dumped from $74 to $1.66. Down 98%.

Here's the timeline:

$TRUMP launched on Solana 3 days before inauguration. Hit billion-dollar market cap in 1 hour, then collapsed.

80% of supply locked with Trump's team from day one. Vesting schedule means insiders can't lose.

World Liberty Financial (his family's project) pulled in another $500M from token sales.

On-chain data shows most wallets that bought $TRUMP are underwater. Winners and losers were decided before the game even started.

This is either the most legal pump and dump in history, or everyone knew the rules before they clicked buy.

You decide.

July 1, 2017: Japan dropped its 8% consumption tax on $BTC and crypto purchases.

Massive move for legitimizing crypto as actual payment rails, not just speculative assets. This is how you build adoption infrastructure—remove friction at the regulatory layer.

Fast forward to now: most countries still treat crypto like property for tax purposes. Japan was early to the game on this one.

Retail is BTFD harder than ever recorded.

On red SPX days in 2025, retail bought 3.5x their normal daily volume. That's the most aggressive dip-buying behavior on record.

Even on green days, they're still buying 1.5x average.

This isn't capitulation. This is peak conviction or peak delusion. Either way, when retail stops buying dips, that's when things get interesting.

Binance just torched 606.7M $LUNC in July 🔥

They're sticking to the monthly burn schedule — first day of every month like clockwork.

Supply squeeze continues. Watch the chart.