silver

In a dramatic market move, gold and silver erased nearly $850 billion in value within just four hours. The sharp decline shocked investors and triggered heavy selling across commodity markets.
The sudden drop reflects a rapid fall in prices, reducing the overall market capitalization of both metals. Such moves often happen due to strong U.S. dollar momentum, interest rate expectations, or large institutional sell-offs.
Markets are now on edge. Some analysts believe this could be the beginning of a deeper correction, while others see it as a short-term shakeout before prices stabilize.
With volatility rising, investors are closely watching whether this is a temporary dip — or the start of a larger pullback.$XAU $XAG #StrategyBTCPurchase #TrumpNewTariffs #GOLD #silver #crypto

$XAG $XAU $BTC
Die wachsende physische Silberknappheit auf COMEX, die durch die Nachfrage des BRICS-Marktes angetrieben wird, verursacht einen signifikanten Lagerabzug und eine scharfe Divergenz der Silberpreise zwischen westlichen und östlichen Märkten. JP Morgan spielt in diesem Szenario eine zentrale Rolle, indem es Silber anhäuft, während es möglicherweise von der Preisprämie in Shanghai profitiert, wo Silber $5–$10 über dem westlichen Papierpreis gehandelt wird. Aktualisierte Prognosen von J.P. Morgan Global Research zeigen eine ausgeprägte Preisrevision nach oben, die auf eine starke institutionelle Erwartung einer Silberpreiserhöhung hinweist, unterstützt durch die chinesische Nachfrage und physische Knappheit.

Die globalen Finanzmärkte erlebten am Dienstag, den 18. März 2025, eine bedeutende Entwicklung, als der Spot-Silberpreis ( $XAG / USD ) fest um die $87,50 pro Unze konsolidierte. Diese Stabilisierung folgt auf eine Phase bemerkenswerter Volatilität und unterstreicht eine starke Rückkehr der Nachfrage nach sicheren Anlagen. Folglich analysieren Investoren genau die Silberpreisprognose nach Hinweisen auf die breitere Marktsentiment und wirtschaftliche Richtung.

Silberpreisprognose: Analyse der Konsolidierung bei $87,50

1.BLACK SWAN EVENT: THE ELIMINATION OF EL MENCHO
On Sunday, February 22, 2026, Mexican military forces, with U.S. intelligence support, eliminated Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, the leader of CJNG, the most powerful cartel in the Western Hemisphere.
The power vacuum is absolute. There is no clear successor. His son remains incarcerated in the United States. This creates a fragmented battlefield in which rival factions will contest territory through sustained violence.
Retaliation escalated immediately. Armed groups blocked highways across nearly twenty Mexican states. Logistics arteries were deliberately severed. The state lost territorial control in real time.
This is not criminal noise. This is systemic destabilization.
2.SILVER AS A U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY MINERAL
In November 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey formally classified silver as a critical mineral.
The dependency structure is extreme. The United States imports roughly 70 percent of its silver. More than half of those imports originate from Mexico. In aggregate, Mexico supplies over 35 percent of the silver feeding U.S. solar, electronics, semiconductor, and defense industries.
A U.S. government stress simulation previously concluded that a Mexican silver $XAG export halt would produce GDP losses large enough to qualify as a national security event.
That theoretical scenario is now transitioning into operational reality.
3.PHYSICAL SUPPLY CHAIN FRACTURE IN MEXICO
Ground truth diverges sharply from screen-based market pricing.
Personnel flight is accelerating. After the kidnapping and killing of specialists at Vizsla Silver in January, senior geologists and engineers began exiting the region. A silver mine without engineers does not function. This is not a temporary disruption. This is a structural shutdown vector.
Transport insurance has frozen. Insurers are refusing to underwrite bullion transport in affected states. Without insurance, legal commercial logistics collapses.
Mining companies are shifting to shipping raw ore disguised as dirt rather than refined bullion to reduce theft risk. This increases processing times, raises costs, and introduces new bottlenecks across the refining pipeline.
Large industrial consumers are bypassing exchanges. Corporations such as Samsung are reportedly constructing militarized private transport corridors to extract silver $XAG directly from mines. This is bilateral physical procurement outside transparent markets.
4.THE PAPER MARKET DISCONNECT
Despite a credible threat to roughly 24 percent of global silver supply, U.S. silver futures closed down $0.95 at approximately $87 per ounce.
This is algorithmic blindness. Paper traders and models are structurally incapable of pricing territorial warfare inside upstream extraction zones.
COMEX inventories are not being replenished. Mexican inflows are deteriorating while March physical delivery demand approaches. This is a timing mismatch with asymmetric consequences.
5.FORWARD SCENARIOS AND SIGNALS
Three dominant pathways are now in play.
Cartel taxation. Mines remain operational but pay escalating extortion premiums. Production continues, but marginal costs explode.
Chain rupture. Violence forces long-duration mine shutdowns, removing supply entirely.
Structural seizure. Cartels assert full territorial control, rendering foreign corporate operations legally and physically impossible.
The highest-priority signal is Asia’s market open on Monday evening U.S. time. Shanghai, Tokyo, and Hong Kong will be the first venues where physical pricing reality can override Western paper inertia.
6.CONCLUSION
The market is running on borrowed time.
Once physical deficits from Mexico intersect with depleted exchange inventories, repricing will not be gradual. It will be violent and instantaneous.
Operational intelligence should focus on security conditions in Zacatecas and Durango. These are not regional crime stories. They are upstream nodes in a global industrial supply system.
This is not a commodity narrative.
This is a systemic fragility exposure event.

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*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#Silver #MexicoCARTEL #SilverSupplyCrisis

Wir erleben keinen normalen Anstieg bei Edelmetallen.
Silber hat $88/oz überschritten. Gold <c-207> hat $5.200/oz erreicht. Das ist kein Momentum-Handel — das ist struktureller Stress, der sich durch den Preis zeigt.
Was diesen Moment anders macht, ist die seltene Konvergenz von vier extremen Kräften, die alle gleichzeitig ausgerichtet sind.
Und wenn Silber unter diesem Druck steht, kriecht es nicht.
Es explodiert.
1. Der China-Faktor: Schrotthandel über Spot
Der schockierendste Datenpunkt ist nicht auf COMEX.
Es ist in China.
Der größte Silberrecycler in China zahlt Berichten zufolge etwa $96/oz für Schrottsilber <c-122>, während der internationale Spot bei etwa $88 liegt.