The Market Updates

🇺🇸🇵🇰🇮🇷 Trump is in the Oval Office right now with his national security adviser, and the topic is Iran.

Two options are on the table. The ceasefire ends and bombing resumes, or a negotiating team heads to Pakistan for talks.

The weekend already had a false start. Talks seemed set, then Trump pulled Witkoff and Kushner off the trip Saturday morning, calling 18 hours of travel with nothing concrete to discuss a waste of time.

He then went on Truth Social telling Iran to call him with new ideas, reminding them the U.S. holds all the cards.

The red lines have not moved. No nuclear weapon for Iran, not now, not ever.

Right now it is just Trump and his team in a room, deciding what comes next.

Source: Al Jazeera

BULLISH:

🇺🇸 Senator Cynthia Lummis says crypto market structure bill will get to the "finish line" in May.

This is Bullish 🚀

THIS IS INTERESTING

Pro Bitcoin Kevin Warsh may become the next Fed Chair by May 2026.

Here’s what happened to $BTC around past Fed leadership changes:

- Jan 2014: Yellen took over. Bitcoin dropped -82.77%.

- Feb 2018: Powell became Chair. Bitcoin dropped -73.89%.

- May 2022: Powell’s second term. Bitcoin dropped -61.06%.

Are we getting a Bitcoin pump this time instead of a crash?

🇮🇷 Iran's top military adviser just declared "no country is capable of blocking Iran's oil exports."

Meanwhile, Iran's oil storage is nearly full because they can't export it.

They're shipping crude by rail to China now, while some ships are passing through Trump's blockade by hugging the Pakistani coast and avoiding International Waters

So is Trump's blockade working?

Short answer: Nobody knows, likely not even Iran

Source: WSJ

🇮🇷🇺🇸 BREAKING:

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi has confirmed Washington has formally requested a new round of negotiations.

Less than 24 hours after Iran submitted its own peace proposal through Pakistani mediators.

Both sides are now publicly asking to talk.

Good news folks

Bitcoin has dropped below $77,000 to its 5 day low as oil hit $97.

Support: $73,500 and $70,500
Resistance: $80,000

Key Events this week:

FOMC: Wednesday
ISM-PMI: Friday
$BTC

$BTC drops 0.5%
Meanwhile Alts:

$BTC has now closed 4 consecutive weeks in green for the first time since April 2025.

- Weekly MACD has flipped bullish.
- Price has reclaimed April 2025 lows.
- RSI has reclaimed the long-term support line.

The next key level for Bitcoin is $80K, and a clean breakout above it will confirm a reversal.

A rejection from $80K will push BTC towards the $74K support zone.

There are several key events too this week, which will decide the next BTC move.

- US and Iran indirect talks
- BOJ decision on Tuesday
- FOMC and earnings report on Wednesday
- ISM PMI data on Friday.

Looking at the macro, several things are aligned together, which has historically been bullish for crypto.

- The Russell 2000 is hitting new highs.
- ISM has printed 3 consecutive months above 52.
- New Fed Chair could be confirmed in a few weeks.
- US M2 supply is at new highs
- The Fed is injecting liquidity into the markets.

All it needs now is a BTC breakout above $80K with rising Coinbase Premium, and we could see a broader crypto market rally.

🚨 BREAKING 🚨

A whale has opened a $40,000,000 short in $BTC and alts.

Right before Trump's meeting with security officials to review negotiations with Iran.

Insider or gambler?

BREAKING:

🇺🇸 Michael Saylor's Strategy has bought $255 MILLION worth of Bitcoin today.

🚨BIG WEEK FOR CRYPTO HOLDERS

A lot of major events are hitting the markets at once, and this could cause a lot of volatility.

1) US-Iran negotiations

Today, Iran sent a new proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the war.

President Trump is set to hold a meeting today to discuss negotiations.

Any signs of resuming US-Iran talks will be a good sign for the markets.

2) BOJ decision

On Tuesday, the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision.

The market expects a rate pause, so the forward guidance is the most important.

After the Hormuz blockade, inflation has started to move up in Japan.

Any signs of BOJ tightening in the future will cause sellers to front-run.

And if BOJ thinks inflation will be short-lived, markets could pump.

3) Fed decision

On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, which will most likely be a pause.

The important thing here will be Powell's press conference, as inflation has spiked a lot since the last Fed meeting.

Also, it'll most likely be the last FOMC meeting for Powell as a Fed chair.

4) Earnings report

Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Apple will report their earnings this week.

These 5 companies account for over 25% of the entire S&P 500, which is a huge deal.

If they report strong earnings, it'll be a sign that consumers are still spending and the economy is in good condition.

If they report bad earnings, it'll be bad for the stock and crypto market.

5) ISM PMI

US ISM PMI for April will be released on Friday.

The last 3 ISM PMI prints were above 52, which is a sign of economic expansion.

If another such print happens, it'll show that the US economy isn't slowing down despite the war.

Historically, if ISM PMI has stayed above 52 for long, it has resulted in a parabolic crypto move.

Conclusion

This week is packed with major data, which means volatility could be extreme.

Don't use leverage, and keep my notifications on to get the update in real-time.

WTF IS HAPPENING IN THE WORLD?

Everyone is focused on the US-Iran war and the stock market ATH.

But something really unusual is happening where most people aren't paying attention.

I already talked about attacks on energy facilities a few days ago.

After that, there was a sudden fire at a chemical factory in India this week.

But that's not the only thing.

Over the past few weeks, there have been reports emerging of suspicious deaths of several scientists related to nuclear or space research.

The situation is so critical that even President Trump has publicly acknowledged this.

And this is not the US thing only.

In China, several scientists and AI specialists have been dying of mysterious deaths.

And the timing of all is even more suspicious.

Ever since Trump has announced the publication of UFO-linked files, these events have accelerated.

Is someone deliberately trying to hide some truth, or is this all just a coincidence?

MASSIVE:

The Coinbase premium has been green for 17 straight days.

That’s the highest US inflow in 6 months.

What it signals:

- Strong US buying pressure
- Institutional capital returning
- US dollar liquidity and bullish sentiment returning

Nasdaq: ATH
Russell 2000: ATH
ISM PMI: Above 52

The most bullish signals for risk-on assets are aligning together.

This is the perfect time for alts to rally.

Key Events This Week:

1. April Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday

2. April Fed Interest Rate Decision and Statement - Wednesday

3. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google Report Earnings - Wednesday

4. Apple Reports Earnings - Thursday

5. US Q1 2026 GDP Data - Thursday

6. March PCE Inflation data - Thursday

7. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week

🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz is still on lockdown.

Ship tracking data shows only a handful of vessels have crossed today, a tiny fraction of its normal traffic.

Iran is doubling down, with officials saying the strait will “under no circumstances” return to its previous open state.

Every extra day of restricted traffic means higher energy prices and more pain for the global economy. The squeeze continues.

Source: CNN / MarineTraffic

Are you prepared for this $BTC scenario?

For the past 10 years, Ethereum’s major bottoms have consistently formed higher lows.

$4,900 is the key level to break to escape the range ETH has been stuck in since 2021, and we’re not far from it.

On a macro level, $ETH isn’t showing weakness.

$TRUMP token has crashed -21.5% and wiped out nearly $161 million from its market cap in the past 24 hours.

This came after investors sold before Trump's Crypto Conference, a classic "sell the rumour" event.

But that's not the only reason.

Over the last 3 weeks, the Trump team has deposited $46 million worth of tokens to exchanges.

As of now, $TRUMP is already down 96.5% from its peak, wiping out $18.1 billion from its market value.

🇺🇸 President Trump's memecoin "TRUMP" is down 96.8% from its peak.

If you invested $10,000 in $TRUMP last year, it's worth just $320 now.